ARNOLD KLING: U.S. Government Bonds are Junk Bonds.

If you buy a ten-year U.S. government bond, what are the chances that you will be repaid in full? Are they 99 percent or more?

If we are talking about being paid back in dollars, I would say that the answer is “yes.” But what about the purchasing power of those dollars?

To keep the arithmetic simple, suppose that you invest $100 in a bond, and you get no interest until the bond matures. Interest is, say, $5 per year, so that in ten years, when the bond matures, you get $150.

Suppose that $150 ten years from now will buy the equivalent of $100 today. Then you just break even on the bond. That corresponds to inflation of roughly 5 percent per year, not compounded. If inflation is less than that, you do better than break-even, and if it is more than that, you do worse.

I think that it is fair to say that if inflation averages more than, say, 8 percent over the next ten years, then long-term government bonds that you buy today will have effectively defaulted. So if you are going to rate long-term government bonds as being investment grade, you have to assign a very low probability to such a high-inflation scenario.

Related: Uncle Sam is playing the same game as broke, disgraced crypto king.

MARK JUDGE: Oliver Anthony could teach Rolling Stone a thing or two. Takers get the honey, givers sing the blues.

Related: Country Music Industry Confused By Man Actually From Country Making Actual Music.

DON’T KNOW MUCH ABOUT HISTORY: ‘White People’ Were the Only Slavers of History, Black Professor Claims.

CULTURE OF CORRUPTION: Biden’s Favorite Super PAC Used Illegal Scheme to Conceal Its Donors, Experts Say.

DEAL OF THE DAY: M-Tac Tactical T-Shirt. #CommissionEarned

CHANGE: AI is going to eliminate way more jobs than anyone realizes.

Past automation technologies had the most effect on low-skilled workers. But with generative AI, the more educated and highly skilled workers who previously were immune to automation are vulnerable. According to the International Labor Organization, there are between 644 and 997 million knowledge workers globally, between 20% and 30% of total global employment. In the US, the knowledge-worker class is estimated to be nearly 100 million workers, one out of three Americans. A broad spectrum of occupations — marketing and sales, software engineering, research and development, accounting, financial advising, and writing, to name a few — is at risk of being automated away or evolving.

This doesn’t mean, however, that there will be a flood of unemployed workers begging for any job. AI will lead to net job creation over the long run, and some roles that seem like they will be affected may actually grow in demand. For instance, ATMs increased the number of bank tellers.

“I do not think we’ll see mass unemployment,” Brynjolfsson, who anticipates AI spreading faster than other general-purpose technologies, told me. “But I do think we’ll see mass disruption, where a lot of wages for some jobs will fall, wages for other jobs will rise, and we’ll be shifting around into demand for different kinds of skills. They’ll have to be a lot of reallocation of labor and rescaling of labor with winners and losers.”

Plus:

The small and large compounding effects of productivity growth across many industries are central to the growth trajectory and the long-run effects of AI. Goldman Sachs estimated that over 10 years, generative AI alone could raise annual US labor-productivity growth by just under 1.5 percentage points, “roughly the same-sized boost that followed the emergence of prior transformative technologies like the electric motor and personal computer.”

That will be great for the world, but maybe less great for this country. AI requires a lot of electricity — which Biden’s so-called Inflation Reduction Act will likely reduce.

YES:

Strange traffic.

Biden is accused of 'LGBT imperialism' in Africa while US conservatives are simultaneously accused of exporting anti-gay hatred.

— wretchardthecat (@wretchardthecat) August 11, 2023

Related:

Somebody from a developing country said to me, ‘what we
get from China is an airport. What we get from the United States
is a lecture.' https://t.co/dT674x0Qc0

— Lawrence H. Summers (@LHSummers) April 14, 2023

THE FIX IS IN: Ted Cruz Rips Into AG Garland Over Special Counsel Appointment in Hunter Biden Case.

THE STRATEGIC GOAL FOR THE UNITED STATES IS JUST TO BLEED THEM DRY: Can Ukraine’s Military Really Defeat Russia? Reality Check Time. “What this short series will reveal, unfortunately, is that Ukrainian victory is not achievable at an acceptable cost and therefore a change of strategy for the United States and NATO is necessary.”

I mean, if it had taken Hitler this long to conquer Poland. . . .

ON SUNDAYS I HOST A PROMO POST FOR (MOSTLY INDIE) AUTHORS:  Book Promo and Vignettes by Luke, Mary Catelli and ‘Nother Mike.

There is also a vignette writing challenge.

FOOL ME ONCE, SHAME ON YOU; FOOL ME THIRTY-SEVEN TIMES …  New COVID vaccines are on the way as ‘Eris’ variant rises.

I READ IT FIRST:  Review: The Fourth Bear of God by Denton Salle.

NEW SHOWS ANCHORED BY CHRIS WALLACE AND CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR? SURE, THAT’LL STAUNCH THE BLEEDING:  CNN reveals major anchor overhaul in sweeping bid to lift sagging ratings.

There isn’t enough silicone to fix that sag.

OVERDUE:  Introducing Contempt of Public.

SOMEONE THROW SOME SANDBAGS UP THERE:  Joe Biden’s Race Against the Truth.

NOT WHOLLY UNEXPECTED:  Today’s Blacklisted American: Best Buy joins the bigotry crowd.

SOME RATS CAN SMELL SALT WATER:   Seven prominent Democrats turn on Biden over soft border policies: ‘federal crisis of inaction’.

But… but… but… children in cages!

REMEMBER WHEN THE TRUMP WHITE HOUSE GAVE GUIDELINES FOR EXPLOITING LOOPHOLES IN SUPREME COURT RULINGS?  Biden Admin Releases Diversity Guidance for Colleges After Supreme Court’s Affirmative Action Ruling.

If you don’t it could be because apparently (so called) “Fascists” don’t try to get around the law for more power. Funny that, uh?

BEING DEMOCRAT MEANS NEVER HAVING TO KNOW ANYTHING:  WH spokesperson botches names, gender of Hawaii Democrat senators.

Biden wants to make sure the “joy” of affirmative action hires goes on and on, in everyone else’s purview.

THEY’LL USE THE INVESTIGATION TO DEMAND HE RECUSE HIMSELF FROM ANY CASE ARGUED BY THE JUSTICE DEPARTMENT:  Top Democrats Demand Justice Department Investigate Justice Clarence Thomas.

Since they took down Sarah Palin with law-fare they’ve gotten ambitious.

SO THIS IS WHAT IT’S COME TO …  Supreme Court May Intervene in Pronoun Issue, Says Expert.

First amendment. You can neither control nor compel other’s speech. The end.

THEY’LL CITE THE FAILURES AS REASONS TO ADOPT THEIR PLANS:  New Climate Regulations Could Destabilize Grid, Electricity Operators Tell EPA.

“WHEN SOME ONE TELLS YOU WHAT THEY PLAN TO DO, BELIEVE THEM”:  Japan and Australia Enter New Era as Defence Deal Comes Into Force.

BUT BUT BUT…. THAT’S WHITE SUPREMACY:  San Francisco Parents Call for Algebra 1 to Be Returned to 8th-Grade Curriculum.

ARGUABLY THAT, SINKING THE ECONOMY AND STEALING THE ELECTIONS WAS THE PURPOSE OF THE WHOLE THING:  Many lost during pandemic, but Fauci and others made bank.