Archive for 2020

I HAD BEEN ASSURED THAT KILLING SULEIMANI WOULD ONLY LEAD TO MORE TERROR: Iran’s Revolutionary guards wrestle with new reality after killing of their chief military strategist.

Analysts and officials in the region say the Revolutionary Guards in fact now find themselves on the back foot, a notable change after successfully projecting their power in the Middle East over recent years.

“The assassination of Qasem Soleimani and the downing of the airliner were both shocks to the Revolutionary Guard,” said Saeid Golkar, an expert on Iran’s security forces and professor of political science at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga. “Soleimani was a big loss for the Islamic Republic, and the downing of the airliner, it blew the Guard’s entire credibility.”

The IRGC, which was established to protect the Islamic Republic, “has to rebrand and rebuild its reputation, which takes time, especially with a population that has grown critical of the Islamic Republic,” Golkar said. “And now the strategy is not to go to war with the United States but to test its limits step-by-step – and not to overreach.”

That challenge, in part, will fall to Brig. Gen. Ismail Qaani, who has replaced Soleimani as commander of the IRGC’s elite Quds Force. He will have to preserve Iran’s regional influence and nurture the proxy groups and militias developed by his predecessor – but without provoking a forceful U.S. reaction.

Qaani should probably never sleep in the same bed twice.

KRUISER’S MORNING BRIEF: Chris Matthews Thinks Bernie Sanders Is Hitler and the Weekend Was Just Perfect. “While it is truly disturbing that one of the two major political parties in America has just hit the gas while driving off of the socialist cliff, it’s also delightful political theater for the moment. Put another way: it’s all fun and games until someone gets an eye redistributed.”

SMALL BOAT RAID DRILL: Preparing for a small boat raiding exercise, U.S. Marines and members of Japan’s Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade deploy in combat rubber raiding craft.

IF YOU’RE IN THE PHOENIX AREA: Here’s an worthwhile way to spend the upcoming weekend: Arizona State University’s School of Civic and Economic Thought and Leadership is holding a conference on Citizenship and Civic Leadership in America from Friday, February 28th to Saturday, February 29th. The keynoters will be Rich Lowry, who will speak on “Nationalism and America” and Yascha Mounk, whose talk will be “The Decline of Democracy Standing Up for Liberal Democratic Values.” Panel speakers will include Christopher Caldwell, Shikha Dalmia, Kurt Lash, Glenn Loury, Henry Olsen, and Wilfred McClay. It should be an interesting weekend. I’ll be there too (as a panel moderator, so I’ll have an easy job).

WHAT’S THE SPANISH FOR “NEW ECONOMIC POLICY?”: Venezuela’s Socialists Embrace Business, Making Partner of a ‘Parasite.’

“Big business and big government working hand-in-hand to achieve total political control sounds an awful lot like fascism,” would be a totally unkind thing to say to any Maduro supporters or Chavistas you might know…

(Classical reference in the headline.)

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE: Coronavirus outbreak nearing pandemic ‘tipping point’ as infections soar, say experts.

‘Pandemic fits the Disease X category’: World Health Organisation’s coronavirus warning.

World on Edge as Cases Rise Outside of China; Five Dead in Italy Outbreak; Cases Spike in Iran.

China delays political meetings as Xi warns of coronavirus crisis; Wuhan backtracks on easing travel curbs.

China’s Xi Jinping Sounds Alarm Over Virus Outbreak at Party’s Doorstep.

North Korea reportedly quarantines 380 foreigners in bid to prevent coronavirus outbreak.

Kuwait, Bahrain, Iraq report coronavirus cases linked to Iran.

Coronavirus Live Updates: Outbreaks Around the World Raise Fears of Pandemic.

Trump’s fury over coronavirus patients being repatriated may be justified. “The way the evacuation was conducted seems to point more to a rushed addressing of the discontent of the passengers (who had been kept in very uncomfortable conditions on the ship) than due diligence.”

Coronavirus deaths near 2,600 in China.

Large parts of China ease coronavirus curbs, many report no new cases.

Stock markets slump as coronavirus spreads in Europe – business live.

World economy shudders as Coronavirus threatens global supply chains.

Dow futures drop nearly 700 points as coronavirus spread stirs fears of global economic impact.

UPDATE: A Hong Kong friend emails:

Hoping not to jinx it, but pretty good news.

Only two cases in Hong Kong in the past week or so.
(Since the 14th, one case on the 18th and one on the 20th).

That comes down to:
1 – Hong Kong shut the border with China
2 – People know the protocol after dealing with SARS 17 years ago.
3 – People wear masks, etc. out of courtesy to others as much as for themselves – so 99% are wearing masks within 4-6 feet of other people.
4 – Doctors being hyper-vigilant. As there are still many “unknowns”, confirmed and sick patients will not only have to be cleared of their symptoms and signs (such as X-ray and various tests) but also (most important) at least TWO molecular tests free of the virus in their respiratory system before they can be released (although they are not sick).

People doing lots of hiking in the great outdoors with good weather of late while shopping malls remain empty.

Data updates here and here.

Fingers crossed. I’d like nothing better than to see this fizzle.

WALKING THE WALK: Why Donald Trump Courts Black Americans. “Donald Trump did not need black voters to win in 2016 and does not need us this year. So why does he help and support black Americans? Why does he want us on the Trump Train? President Trump knows this, but he still keeps reaching out to fellow Americans who are black. Why? I think I have an answer. What do all of these newly-freed former prisoners – white, black, brown, etc. – have in common besides being mostly non-violent offenders? It’s this: they all hit bottom and are determined to climb back up; they are intent on becoming better people than the persons they were. More often than not, someone saw their efforts and gave them a hand up. They are all looking to improve themselves the right way. That’s a very American trait which President Trump appreciates.”

THE RETURN OF THE CVL: The Navy’s New Amphibious Assault Ship Is Now Rocking F-35 Stealth Fighters.

The Navy’s USS America amphibious assault ship, a first-in-class new generation amphib, traveled the seas armed with 13 F-35s during a previous deployment, senior Navy officials said. This brings an unprecedented measure of air attack and surveillance possibilities, to include the option to provide stealth air attack support to amphibious assaults. Amphibs could offer a smaller, more mobile type of aircraft carrier power projection capability, Vice. Adm. Rich Brown, Command, Naval Surfaces Forces, told an audience Jan. 14 at the 32nd Annual Surface Navy Association Symposium.

“A big deck with that many F-35s is beginning to look like an aircraft carrier to me,” Brown said.

Since potential adversaries now have longer-range weapons, better sensors, targeting technologies and computers with faster processing speeds, amphibious forces approaching the shore may need to disperse in order to make it harder for enemy forces to target them. Therefore, the notion of an air-powered, disaggregated, yet interwoven attack force, less vulnerable to enemy fire, could be launched to hit “multiple landing points” to exploit enemy defenses.

Execution of this new strategy is, depending upon the threat, heavily impacted by the arrival of 5th-generation aircraft, such as the F-35.

The Marines have also been putting mobile rocket launchers on the deck, turning ships like the America into combination amphibious-assault/land-attack/aircraft-carriers. Which is about as awesome as it sounds ridiculous.