Archive for 2019

SIMMERING SOUTH CHINA SEA HEATS UP: Taiwan scrambles jet fighters to intercept Chinese aircraft violating Taiwanese airspace then vigorously protests the military intrusions. A U.S. Navy amphibious warfare group exercises with Filipino forces. China plans a huge fleet review “to mark the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army Navy” — and show off its latest military muscle. What could go wrong?

No, the conflict in South China Sea isn’t about to escalate to a slugfest — but nonetheless a conflict is occurring. The events in the AP report sound a bit like one of the conflict scenario sketches in Chapter 3, Cocktails from Hell. If you’ve a copy check out”Meeting Engagement in the South China Sea” and “China Invades Taiwan” (pp. 80-81).

Two weeks ago Jim Dunnigan and I recorded a podcast about the evolving situation in the South China Sea. Jim thinks the situation is more stable than I do. He argues that China knows it isn’t ready to tangle — hence he spends some air time discussing Chinese corruption and China’s awareness of its weaknesses. I don’t disagree with his point that China isn’t ready to tangle, I merely note the situation’s already tangled. China’s intruded on Filipino and Vietnamese territory. Maybe that’s why the host titled the podcast “A Powderkeg Waiting To Be Lit.” Here’s a link to the podcast on youtube. This podcast’s a bit windy but it covers the issues.

DAVID HARSANYI: Mark Zuckerberg’s Plan For The Internet Would Be A Disaster For Free Expression. “Zuckerberg’s case for government-instituted speech codes is a cynical attempt to deflect criticism aimed at his company.”

More than anything it’s an attempt to foster a regulatory scheme advantageous to established players like Facebook, which Harsanyi gets to in the second half of his column:

What Zuckerberg’s plan does is undermine competition. If a private company like Facebook sets speech codes that are too stifling for users, another innovator will jump into the gap and create a platform that isn’t. While I assume free political expression isn’t the predominate concern of most social media users, it does exist. When government sets a “baseline” for what’s acceptable for all websites, there’s no longer competition for open debate.

Worse, deliberation over free expression would be moved to the political arena, where the influence of scaremongering officials, ideologues, and rent-seeking tech corporations like Twitter, Facebook, and Google would dominate decisions.

Indeed.

EVEN AMONG NEW YORK TIMES READERS, not all women are thrilled with gender-fluid politics:

Every time I read articles on this topic, it makes me feel like I’ve gone through the looking glass. I was born female in a male-dominated world and subject to discrimination, harassment, and the threat of sexual violence just because I was a girl and now a woman. I had no more choice being born female than My partner did being born African-American.

I have fought my whole life to be heard in the workplace and to be seen as more than a pretty face or female body. But now I have to once again sit down and shut up because some men now want to be women and need to explain to me via academic proxy that if I talk about topics such as my female anatomy or menstruation I am being non-inclusive. Sorry, this is nonsense and I am not going to pretend otherwise.

I do not wish transgender people any ill will, live and let live. Just don’t tell me what it is really like to [b]e a woman, ok?

Sorry, but “live and let live” is now a sexist, racist, alt-right doctrine, because reasons.

KNOCK 5% OFF THE STICKER PRICE FOR EACH WARNING: China warns US on F-16 sales to Taiwan.

Earlier this month, however, the Trump administration gave its tacit approval to Taiwan’s request to purchase 60 F-16V fighter jets. A formal request would still need US congressional approval, but the news has already rattled Beijing.

Addressing the issue on Thursday (March 28), defense ministry spokesperson Wu Qian said that China “resolutely opposes” such sales to Taiwan and that any words or actions that undermine the one-China policy are “extremely dangerous.”

The only danger in allowing Taiwan better defenses is to Beijing’s imperial ambitions.

HERE’S MORE ON THE GRAD STUDENT WHO MADE A MAJOR DISCOVERY about the asteroid strike that killed off the dinosaurs. And here’s a copy of his actual paper, in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

IT WENT “POOF” BECAUSE IT WAS HURTING DEMOCRATS, AND THE MEDIA ARE BASICALLY DEMOCRATIC PARTY OPERATIVES WITH BYLINES: ‘‘It Just Went Poof’: The Strange Aftermath of Virginia’s Cascade of Political Scandals.

In the space of a week in early February, the public was stunned by revelations about each of the three highest statewide elected officials, all Democrats: the racist photo in the governor’s yearbook; accusations of sexual assault against the lieutenant governor; and the attorney general’s appearance in blackface at a party in college. Protesters and news crews swarmed the Statehouse. Calls for resignations came from fellow Virginia Democrats, Republicans and even 2020 presidential candidates.

And then? “It just went poof,” said Natalie Draper, a librarian sitting in the back of a coffeehouse last week in Richmond. “It’s like it never happened.”

Remember, kids:

THE CODE BREAKERS SPEAK: A book review of Michael Paterson’s Voices of the Code Breakers – Personal Accounts of the Secret Heroes of World War II.

While the story of the successful Allied efforts to break Axis codes during World War II has been told well a number of times, British historian Paterson’s approach offers the reader a novel look at the subject, by in drawing heavily on interviews, memoirs, diaries, and similar first-hand accounts by the men and women who helped bring about that success.

Although he tends to mostly cover British efforts, Paterson’s account ranges across the work of several countries. He often cuts back and forth from the stuffy huts at Bletchley Park to daring deeds at sea and on land, to show us how the tedious work of the code breakers affected and was affected by the harsh realities of combat.

This is another succinct and informative review by Dr. A.A. Nofi.

ALL IS PROCEEDING EXACTLY AS THE FOUNDERS HAVE FORESEEN: McConnell shuts down the Pelosi agenda. “The Republican Senate is where House Democratic bills go to die.”

As Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) put it: “We are the firewall.”

“Most of that stuff is really easy for Republicans in the Senate to message against,” said Senate Majority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.). “We think a lot of the ideas over there are crazy. I don’t see many of our folks who have much problem messaging against most of what their agenda’s going to consist of.”

Gridlock in divided government is a longstanding Washington tradition, with the fast-moving House frequently stymied by the Senate. It’s not all bad for Democrats, who can help lay the groundwork for Democrats’ 2020 agenda and show voters what the party can do if it sweeps into power in the next election.

Politico has got to cheerlead for the Democrats, I suppose, because Politico. But Republicans are absolutely counting on voters becoming aware of what Democrats can do if they sweep into power in the next election.

RAPTOR OVER GREEN CALIFORNIA: An F-22 Raptor prepares to perform at an air show held at Travis AFB, California.

WOMEN CAN LEAD RIOTS TOO: On this day in 1863, about 5000 people, mostly poor women, led by Mary Jackson, Martha Fergusson, and Minerva Meredith, broke into Richmond, Virginia shops and seized food, clothing, shoes and jewelry.

“Bread riots” of this sort also broke out in other parts of the South during the last couple of years of the war, but the one in Richmond was the worst. “Bread or blood!” was their rallying cry.

All had not been well in Richmond. Union forces had blockaded the ports and had gained control of parts of Virginia. Farm output was low, since so many farmers and farm laborers were in the military. Richmond’s population had swelled as a result of war. And a late March snowstorm had turned the roads to mud, thus making it difficult to make it to town with what little food there was.

A few days earlier, Jefferson Davis, who no one ever accused of being overly diplomatic, had set people on edge by calling for a day of fasting and prayers. One man wrote in his diary,  “Fasting in the midst of famine! May God save this people!”

Davis was the one who ultimately brought the crowd under control. But it took a lot: Only when he got on top of a wagon and threatened to have the Confederate army open fire on the crowd did they disperse.

SPACE: Stars align as Beresheet spacecraft prepares for lunar capture. “Israeli spacecraft on schedule to jump into lunar orbit on Thursday and land on moon’s surface on April 11.”

There’s a nice graphic at the link showing the complexity of Beresheet’s upcoming moon landing.

I also liked this line: “With Beresheet, Israel hopes to become the fourth country in the world to land a spacecraft on the moon, following the US, Russia, and China.” That’s a nation of nine million people going toe-to-toe with the big players.

EXCLUSIVE: Omar facing campaign finance probe.

The key graf doesn’t come until midway in the story:

Campaigning in Minnesota’s staunchly blue 5th District, which includes the city of Minneapolis and has sent a Democrat to Washington every year since 1963, Omar defeated Republican challenger Jennifer Zielinksi with nearly 80 percent of the vote. Drazkowski complained that Omar’s gender and ethnicity — she is Muslim-American and an immigrant from Somalia — and her willingness to cast herself as a victim of discrimination make her critics fearful of speaking out against her, whether on substantive policy or ethics issues. “There’s a political fear that people have,” Drazkowski said, “of being called a name, being called a bigot, being called racist, being called Islamophobic.”

She acts as though she’s untouchable because at least until now, she has been.

LIZ SHELD’S MORNING BRIEF: Security Clearances, Border Headaches and Much, Much More. “I don’t want to have to defend Joe Biden but this guy has been touching people in a too-familiar way for years, it’s documented on film and in pictures. No one made a peep when he was in a position of power. And by the way, is there a flock of vulture journalists outside Obama’s fancy Georgetown mansion, screaming questions to him about the Uncle Joe allegations?”

That’s different because shut up.

ANN ALTHOUSE HAS QUESTIONS ON THE BIDEN THING:

Who was involved in launching this new attack? The material is old. The Flores incident goes back to 2014. #MeToo prompted new speech about old incidents, but #MeToo goes back to the fall of 2017. Biden’s likely candidacy has been plain since 2016. Biden has been leading the polls for quite a while. Various candidates who may think they deserve front-runner status — including all the women — find themselves stalled behind 2 old white men — Biden and Sanders — and looking at 2 young white men — O’Rourke and Buttigieg — moving up on them. Did Flores act entirely on her own or did one or more of the female candidates or their operatives move behind the scenes to scare up the old stories and push old Joe into disqualifying himself?

I watched Flores on Jake Tapper’s “State of the Union” yesterday, and he confronted her with questions about whether she acted alone. She jumped very eagerly, so eagerly that we wondered if she was lying.

Hmm.

UPDATE: From the comments: “The months leading up to a nomination of a Democratic candidate for president [are] unique in the United States. It is the only time when the media will investigate and even disparage a Democrat. They do this, of course, because Democrats are competing with Democrats. Once the nominee is selected, the media will, once again, close ranks around their candidate and party and never say an unkind word about either.”

HMM: America is still trying to win the last cyber war.

While the Vice President’s characterization of having “inherited” the previous status quo in cyberspace was uncharitable — the problem spans multiple administrations — it was based on a kernel of truth: For years, responses that could have protected Americans and deterred adversaries were held up by government processes that required the President himself to authorize cyber activities. This didn’t work when the malicious activities on the other side were authorized by a colonel, or a criminal, and were carried out not one-at-a-time but by the thousands annually. At some point indecision on the part of the U.S. became a decision unto itself, and that flawed decision-making process has been reversed so that cyber threats to national security can be more appropriately addressed as needed.

The Administration has also changed America’s national security posture to one that reflects a concern about winning a long, ongoing, multi-faceted competition affecting our national security in addition to longstanding concerns about preventing one-off, catastrophic events. That change in tone and resources is most evident in the National Cyber Strategy’s emphasis on economic threats, especially from China, which span not only traditional remote cyber operations to steal intellectual property, but also cyber-assisted human insider threats, legal mechanisms for forcing the transfer of intellectual property that can be informed by surveillance of company executives via cyber means, and broad theft of business sensitive information on suppliers, customers, outside legal counsel, and other trusted contacts whose information might benefit Chinese companies in international competition.

Cold War II involves all kinds of parameters which either didn’t exist before 1989, or were just in their infancy. It’s good to see the Trump Administration taking the new threats seriously, but even so a “Faster, please” doesn’t feel remiss.