Archive for 2016

ANALYSIS: TRUE. Tax Cuts Don’t Motivate The Republican Base Anymore.

Yesterday, in discussing the lower- and middle-class workers who have been increasingly displaced by automation and trade, I wrote that both parties are simply reiterating longstanding policy preferences that are far more geared to the desires of their respective elites, than to the difficulties these people encounter in their every day lives. In another column soon, I’ll talk about why the standard Democratic economic package is not making more inroads with this group. But today, I’m going to talk about why what the Republicans have been offering — tax cuts and deregulation — falls so flat.

I’ve been urging Republicans to find an agenda beyond tax cuts for a while, with no notable success. Mostly I’ve focused on the budget logic, which is simply this: we’ve run out of our ability to cut taxes without substantial cuts to entitlements, and the collapse of Bush’s Social Security reform illustrated that Republicans have absolutely no stomach for cutting entitlements.

But that’s boring fiscal nannying, easy for both parties to ignore as long as debt markets are still willing to lend the government money. So today let me point out why the political logic fails as completely as the budget math — why the Trump voters, and indeed, Trump-hating social conservatives like Rod Dreher, are not much moved by Republican promises to get those marginal tax rates down even further.

To do so, I want to go back to a time when tax cuts did work politically, a period which starts with Ronald Reagan.

I’d still like my taxes cut, but I don’t think I’m part of the demographic she’s describing.

DIVERSITY IS OUR STRENGTH: Muslim extremists’ ‘campaign of lies’ to undermine the government’s fight against terror.

Islamist activists linked to Cage, a group known to sympathise with terrorists, are using coordinated leaks to mainstream news organisations, including the BBC, to spread fear and confusion in Muslim communities about the Government’s anti-terror policy, Prevent.

Investigations by the Telegraph reveal that several widely reported recent stories about Prevent are false or exaggerated – and many of the supposedly “ordinary Muslim” victims are in fact activists in the campaign, known as Prevent Watch. The stories include a claim which became a cause célèbre for Prevent’s opponents – that a Muslim schoolboy from London was “interrogated like a criminal” for using the phrase “ecoterrorism” in class. The boy’s mother, Ifhat Smith, who took the story to the media, presented herself as a traumatised ordinary Londoner. She is in fact an activist in the Prevent Watch campaign and a key figure in the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood, which believes in replacing secular democratic government with Islamic government.

This is no surprise. And neither is the press’s gullibility.

IT’S JUST “WAR ON WOMEN” ELECTIONEERING: Employers to get new rules to prove mythical gender wage gap.

The gender wage gap is due mostly to the choices women make in their careers and family lives, not to discrimination. Yet the myth persists that women earn 78 cents to the dollar that men earn for doing the exact same job.

On Friday, President Obama announced a new regulation that would force employers to “collect summary pay data by gender, race and ethnicity from businesses with 100 or more employees.”

Because even though the discrepancy is due mostly to the choices women make, why not set about trying to prove that it’s all about discrimination?

The gender wage gape myth persists mostly because it is an easy talking point for Democrats looking to foment anger and resentment between men and women. But it also persists because the data behind the gap make apples and oranges comparisons between the careers and hours of men and women. The data do not compare “equal pay for equal work,” as Democrats claim. The White House knows this, yet continues to demonize employers and victimize women.

Well, they know a lot of stuff, and continue to say different. Because demonizing is what they do best. Related: Jay Carney addresses male/female pay gap at White House.

POLITICO: Cruz’s TV ads judged most effective. “The ratings come from Ace Metrix, a television analytics company that uses large online panels to rate the effectiveness of TV commercials. The company’s political unit found that Cruz’s campaign produced five of the 11 top-scoring ads among Republican voters this election, including the single most effective ad of the GOP primary so far.”

DES MOINES DIARY #1: WATCHING TELEVISION IN IOWA. “For the next seventy-two hours or so — and possibly longer because of the impending snowstorm late caucus night — Iowa is the political capital of the known world,” and Roger Simon is on location there. Read the whole thing.

IT CROSSES ALL LINES: The rarely discussed support for gun rights among black voters. “During the power days of the Brady campaign back in the 90s, black support for gun rights was tanked at 17 to 18 percent, but if you look at the graph above it’s been slowly rising at roughly the same rate as support among whites. At the end of last year it had reached 34% at the same time that white support peaked at around 60. I won’t read too much into this, but the Howard interview definitely makes a good case as to why plenty of black voters should, if anything, be more supportive of gun rights.”