MICHAEL WALSH: Lipstick On The Iowa Pig.
Archive for 2012
January 5, 2012
MEGAN MCARDLE: Don’t be too impressed with Krugman’s predictive powers:
What is so strange about this belief–aside from the collective hyperlocal amnesia that prevents them from remembering that yes, even the great Paul Krugman has made some bloomers in his time–is that the examples of his Nostradamus-like powers are not, in fact, at all special. Chief among them–the sort of Ur prediction upon which he has apparently made his reputation–is “calling” the housing bubble in 2003.
Contra the fuzzy recollections of his readers, this is not an example of unusual foresight unparalleled in the world of journalism. I called the housing bubble a full year earlier than he did, in 2002. The Economist was writing about the global housing bubble even earlier than that, thanks to Pam Woodall’s fearsome analytic talents.
This is obviously not a sign that I am possessed of near-superhuman foresight, because while I foresaw the collapse, I did not foresee it leading to a run on the money markets, or any of the other specific events of 2008. Neither, as far as I am aware, did Paul Krugman. Nor, for that matter, Nouriel Roubini, who was predicting a crisis, to be sure, but a completely different crisis from the one we actually got, one that would be triggered by America’s persistent current account deficits and dollar devaluation.
So far, none of the people who have urged me to recognize Krugman’s superior analytic abilities on the grounds that he called the housing bubble, have changed their minds and agreed with me when I informed them that I “called” it even earlier than their sage. Nor have they switched their allegiance to The Economist, which has been quite sharp about Krugman in its time.
I get the feeling that Krugman himself rather encourages this touching faith in his unusual forecasting abilities.
I once had a lot of respect for Krugman as an economist.
HOPE AND CHANGE: Boeing Will Lay Off More Than 2,100 Workers At Wichita Plant.
SELF-DEFENSE: Okla. Mom Sarah McKinley Kills Intruder Justin Martin. “Sarah McKinley, 18, killed Justin Martin with a single gunshot wound on New Year’s Eve when he forced his way into her Blanchard, Okla. home and came at her with a long hunting knife, ABC News reports. The deadly encounter occurred about a week after the young mom’s husband died of cancer, according to TV station KOCO.”
January 4, 2012
MICHAEL YON: Passing the Medevac Buck.
UPDATE: Response: Experts Agree, The Medevac Issue Is A Non Issue.
JIM TREACHER: One day, many years from now, Obama will invent a time machine. “Did you watch the whole thing? Me neither. You’d think Future Obama would’ve learned something about public speaking in subsequent decades, but if anything he became (will become?) even more tedious and boring. Well, at least he managed to get away from Future Michelle. Let’s hope Skynet doesn’t send her back here.”
Meanwhile, is it just me, or does Obama look like he’s morphing into Jon Huntsman?

I mean, I’m just sayin’. . . .
UPDATE: Reader Bayard Rucker emails: “I watched it twice and noticed Obama’s blink rate.” Was he blinking something in Morse code? Maybe There Is No Fate?
TEN YEARS AGO ON INSTAPUNDIT: Explaining the First Amendment to the Department of Justice. In the context of the Vanessa Leggett case.
AT AMAZON, Warehouse Deals in Electronics.
PACE GEORGE WILL, when I think of Rick Santorum, I don’t think of a “fun candidate.” Well, maybe it’s just me. But maybe not.
NEWS YOU CAN USE: A Guide To The Presidential Candidates’ Proposals To Cut Spending.
AIRPORT TORTURE: Reader Keli “Liberty Belle” Carender (whom some credit with the founding of the Tea Party movement) emails:
Sitting in an airport again, being forced to watch CNN again and, though I shouldn’t be, am shocked at their blatant effort to create a “Santorum just might be a racist” innuendo. Regardless of one’s opinions of him the primary, this is an absurd attempt to create a preemptive narrative about a candidate that may or may not go on, that those of us that believe in the pursuit of truth should fight against. What are their insinuations based on? What grievous crime did Santorum commit? Well, he allegedly used the word “black” twice! over the course of one year. And I say allegedly because the recent claim about his “black people’s lives” statement may or may not be true. Keep in mind that I’m not simplifying this. The comment was actually, “But [Santorum] did use the word black another time, last January.”
Welcome to Election 2012.
Upside: Does anyone outside of airports still watch CNN?
MADE BY ONE GUY IN OREGON: The Greatest Paper Map of the United States You’ll Ever See.
AT AMAZON, loads of coupons.
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE LEGALITY OF THE CORDRAY APPOINTMENT UNDER DODD-FRANK.
Leaving aside the constitutional questions, there is a potential statutory problem with the legality of the Cordray appointment under Dodd-Frank. Section 1066 of Dodd-Frank provides that the Secretary of the Treasury is authorized to perform the functions of the CFPB under the subtitle transferring authority to the CFPB from the other agencies “until the Director of the Bureau is confirmed by the Senate in accordance with Section 1011.” It turns out that section 1011 is a defined term which provides: “The Director shall be appointed by the President, by and with the advice and consent of the Senate.”
This seems to suggest that even if the President might be able to appoint Cordray under the recess power the full grant of statutory authority wouldn’t transfer to the Bureau unless the statutory language was fulfilled as well.
Appointed but without power. Hmm.
I STILL don’t get many modeling jobs. Go figure. Plus, identifying a rube.
MICKEY KAUS: “Think how impressive Romney’s victory would have been if you hadn’t read 20 stories over the past week on his brilliant, decisive move into Iowa. The overspin took away the impact.”
Related: Joe Battenfeld: Voters Make Obama The Real Loser In Iowa. It’s the record turnout: “The results from the Hawkeye State mean while there isn’t much enthusiasm yet for a Republican nominee, there is still plenty of motivation for Republicans to keep Obama from winning a second term in November. . . . So while the White House might have gotten a chuckle out of the GOP prat-falling and shape-shifting over the last few months, the real joke is this: Obama is in trouble even against a weak field.”
AIRPORT SECURITY: STILL A JOKE: “So there you have it: The government believes it is in possession of a technology so vital it is willing to dose its citizens with ionizing radiation, but a decade after the Sept. 11 attacks it still hasn’t figured out a way to utilize this technology in one of America’s most sensitive airline terminals. It’s not for nothing that Senator Collins is skeptical of the TSA.”
It was a mistake to create the TSA. It — along with the entire department of Homeland Security — should be abolished, and airport security should be privatized.
CALIFORNIA GUN-BANNERS DISCOVER unintended consequences.
DISAPPOINTED IN OBAMA, AND “PULLING THE MOMMY CARD:”
This is not the change I voted for. Nor how I thought the year would end for women’s rights in the USA. Secretary of Health and Human Services, Kathleen Sebelius recently overruled scientists at the Federal Drug Administration and blocked a move to allow for Plan B emergency contraception, also known as the morning after pill, to be sold over-the-counter without age restriction. Her rationale was to protect 11-year-old girls from taking something that might harm them. President Obama backed her up, asked us to use “common sense” and pulled the daddy card.
Well, I’m pulling the mommy card.
Another disappointed customer.