Archive for 2011

CHANGE: You know the economy is in bad shape when customers can’t afford to shop at dollar stores anymore. “Chalk it up as one more sign of weakness in consumer spending. Wal-Mart visits are down 3 percent, with some customers complaining that prices are too high there.”

Related: Consumer Credit Card Balances Surge. “Across the board, prices are rising.”

More: “Are Americans hoarding cash and taking out more consumer loans while boosting their credit card balances? There’s no good explanation for why this might be happening.” If you expect economic disaster, running up your credit card balances while hoarding cash might make sense.

UPDATE: A reader emails: “Regarding David Inviglio’s contention that there is no explanation for why Americans would be running up credit while hoarding cash, I can offer one: negative real interest rates on some consumer credit. I have a significant amount of debt I’m carrying, and I have enough cash and liquid investments on hand to wipe it out right now. Why don’t I do that? Because the debt is at zero interest. With inflation getting in gear, why should I pay it off now when Ben Bernanke is devaluing it for me? So long as I’m working (knock on wood), real carrying costs remain negative, and my investments beat 5% (and they do) there’s no reason why I would do otherwise. Economic disaster doesn’t factor into my calculations, simply because my credit score would be the least of my worries by that point.”

PROFESSOR BAINBRIDGE ON the Chicago Law Review’s new faculty peer-review system. “Either the student-edited format makes sense or it doesn’t. The whole purpose of peer review is to get students OUT of the process, not to supplement a decision that would remain in the hands of second and third year law students.” I’ve reviewed articles for the Stanford Law Review in the past — I didn’t mind because they sent stuff I would have read anyway — but I thought the same thing when they asked.

Meanwhile, I have to say that I care less and less about law reviews. Increasingly it feels to me like the article is published when it’s posted on SSRN, and the actual publication in a law review later seems kind of anticlimactic. Based on casual conversation, I’d say that a lot of other legal academics feel the same way. I still submit to law reviews, but I wonder if that will be true in five years.

DAVID FREDDOSO: Downgrade Shows DeMint Was Right.

The bond-rating houses kept saying all along that they weren’t worried about the debt ceiling not being increased. Rather, they were worried about the long-term prospects of the U.S. government paying back $15-plus trillion, which is where our national debt (both publicly held and obligated to trust funds) will be shortly.

Because last weekend’s deal didn’t cut spending deeply enough, S&P has just downgraded us. We’ll see just how disastrous this becomes — some are arguing it’s not such a big deal — but consider this the market’s revenge for TARP and the stimulus package. You run up the debt, Mr. President, you lose your good credit.

Indeed.

ED MORRISSEY: HYPOCRISY, IRONY, AND THE NEW CIVILITY. “After getting an avalanche of criticism, Harrop deleted all of the comments and closed the post for any future comments.”

AMERICA’S NEWEST SHOOTING SPORT: Rifle Golf!

PEGGY NOONAN: The Power of Bad Ideas: What we’ve got here is far worse than a failure to communicate. “There was drama at the White House this week when a man tried to hurl himself over the fence. But the Secret Service intervened and talked the president into going back inside and finishing his term. That’s from Conan O’Brien’s monologue the other night. It captures the moment pretty well.”

THIS HEADLINE’S PRETTY MUCH EVERGREEN: Byron York: Obama Partisans Ignore Facts When Bashing Bush.

After beginning with a Clinton-era surplus in 2001, the Bush administration ran up deficits of $158 billion in 2002; $378 billion in 2003; and $413 billion in 2004. Then, with revenues pouring in, the deficits began to fall: $318 billion in 2005; $248 billion in 2006; and $161 billion in 2007. That 2007 deficit, with the tax cuts in effect, was one-tenth of today’s $1.6 trillion deficit.

Deficits went up in 2008 with the beginning of the economic downturn — and, not coincidentally, with the first full year of a Democratic House and Senate.

People complained about Bush’s spending, but if we could get back to the Bush-era spending and deficits now it would look like a triumph of fiscal responsibility — and Democrats would complain of “austerity.”

SOLAR BLASTS SLAM INTO EARTH: “Two blasts of energy from the sun hit the Earth’s magnetic field Friday and could disrupt one or more electrical grids, global-positioning systems or other satellite-communications systems, scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Friday. . . . Scientists expect the frequency of these kinds of events to increase over the next two to three years.”

ROGER KIMBALL: Thank You, President Obama: “Just a couple of years in that big house in Washington and you and your spendthrift colleagues have managed to blight the most productive economy the world has ever seen. Thank you Mr. President! . . . In the space of two years, you have done more damage to this economy — which means the future not only of this country but the rest of what you would disdain to call the civilized world — than any President in history. You are a poor man’s Jimmy Carter, a midget Herbert Hoover, a disaster for this country and the world.”

NEW ORLEANS COPS GUILTY OF CONSPIRACY in Katrina bridge shooting case. “A federal jury in New Orleans on Friday handed down all guilty verdicts on 25 counts in the infamous Danziger Bridge shooting case, in which current and former New Orleans police officers were charged with civil rights violations, conspiracy charges, and weapons charges in the shooting deaths of unarmed civilians following Hurricane Katrina. In the infamous debacle in the chaotic days after the 2005 storm, police allegedly opened fire on a group that was crossing the bridge out of town, then lied after the fact, saying they had been fired upon and planting a gun on one of the victims. A 40-year-old man and 17-year-old boy were killed, and four others were injured.”

PROF. JACOBSON: S&P Drops U.S. Credit Rating to AA+ // Obama and Reid’s Crowning Achievement. “Democrats own the downgrade. They fought Republicans and Tea Party supporters every step of they way, and forced a deal which was insufficient. They played class warfare and race politics against arguments that we needed to drastically change our spending habits.”

But you can bet they’ll blame the Tea Party.

BRYAN PRESTON: Now That S&P Has Downgraded U.S. Credit, Tim Geithner Should Resign. “Under Geithner’s watch, the United States has not had a national budget at all, and that includes two years when the party of his president controlled the White House and both houses of Congress. As Treasury Secretary, it was Geithner’s job to make the case that living without a national budget was reckless. The fact is, Geithner has offered no leadership at all. He should resign.”

AFTER YESTERDAY’S MOB VIOLENCE a new “youth policy” at the Wisconsin State Fair: “On Friday afternoon, Mayor Tom Barrett announced an increase in police presence at community events planned for the week. He said there would be no tolerance for violence at festivals and that perpetrators will be prosecuted — regardless of race.” Well, that’s how it’s supposed to work, right?

CHANGE: Another Historic First for Obama: S&P Downgrades US Credit Rating From AAA. “Heckuva job, Bammy.”

But is there a math error? And if so, does it matter?

UPDATE: A reader emails: “Obama lied, our credit rating died.”

Plus, via Drudge, a reminder that just a few months ago Tim Geithner said there was “no risk” of a downgrade. Heckuva job, Timmy!

ANOTHER UPDATE: A reader writes: “When Black Friday falls you know it’s got to be — Don’t let it fall on me.” Sorry, got to go catch the gray men. . . .

A MODEST PROPOSAL for addressing poverty. “I have no issue with a social safety net. I just think the beneficiaries of this net should be grateful and embarrassed.” His efforts seem directed mostly toward ensuring the latter.