GREG MANKIW:

Over at Intrade, you can bet on future tax rates. Currently, the implied probability of a hike in the top income tax rate in 2009 is about two-thirds.

This surprises me. Even assuming an Obama victory, I would put the probability much lower. As an economic matter, raising anyone’s taxes with the economy so weak seems ill-advised. As a political matter, why not just let the Bush tax cuts expire at the end of 2010? Obama could then claim in four years that he never signed a tax hike. It seems neither economically nor politically sensible for the new President to push for an immediate tax increase, even if an eventual tax increase is his goal.

That’s not the way Obama is sounding, but who knows what’ll happen if he’s elected?

SPACE STATION AMMONIA TANK falls safely from space.

WIN OR LOSE, a historic day for us all.

GRAND ROUNDS IS UP, with an election theme. And Blawg Review is up, with a FiveThirtyEight.com theme, which is apparently appropriate for those obsessive page-refreshers.

THE MCCAIN CAMP EXPECTS a long night, ending in a McCain win. Well, we’ll know soon.

BRAD SMITH ON the turkey that is campaign finance “reform.”

I’m thinking McCain might actually agree, about now.

WELL, GOOD: Fungi Discovered in Patagonia Rainforest Could Be Used to Make Biodiesel. “American scientists have discovered a fungus deep in the Patagonian rainforest that makes biodiesel as part of its natural lifecycle. The fungus is the only organism that has ever been shown to produce such an important combination of fuel sources.” Reportedly, it can even process cellulose, which is a big deal.

AN ELECTRIC SPORTS CAR, from Sam’s Club.

ROUNDING UP ELECTION NEWS ALL DAY, at PJM.

VOTING TWICE in Georgia and Florida, and in Georgia and Ohio. Plus, voting machine problems in Philadelphia. As I’ve said before, our electoral system badly needs to be fixed.

IN THE MAIL: The Man Who Emptied Death Row: Governor George Ryan and the Politics of Crime. A crusading politician who wound up in jail — a perfect selection for election day . . . .

JUST A REMINDER: Basically, nothing the TV talking-heads say before the polls close means anything. Remember the bogus Kerry-victory exit poll reports from 2004?

UPDATE: Apparently, though, some networks just can’t wait to call the election this time around. Hmm . . . .

MORE DUBIOUS ACTIONS IN PHILADELPHIA: “GOP Election Board members have been tossed out of polling stations in at least half a dozen polling stations in Philadelphia because of their party status. A Pennsylvania judge previously ruled that court-appointed poll watchers could be NOT removed from their boards by an on-site election judge, but that is exactly what is happening, according to sources on the ground.”

ABC NEWS:

Among the other voters who have shown up to vote at Shoesmith Elementary School this morning, where Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., will vote: Louis Farrakhan and William Ayers.

Seriously.

Welcome to the South Side of Chicago.

Indeed.

HMM: “Video footage of a Chinese official’s drunken attempt to force himself on an 11-year-old girl has triggered a police inquiry and a torrent of online criticism, state media reported Tuesday.” Video footage and online criticism of officialdom? Somebody should write a book about this phenomenon!

IN FORBES, I SUGGEST: Whoever Wins, Chill a Bit.

UPDATE: Michael Silence comments. (Bumped).

A REVIEW OF Quantum of Solace.

WORRYING ABOUT “STREET MONEY” IN PHILADELPHIA.

EVAN COYNE MALONEY: Holding My Nose and Pulling the Lever.

LOOKING AT THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN steamy TV shows and teen pregnancy.

FROM PENNSYLVANIA, an update on the Murtha/Russell race.

MARK STEYN: “You gotta admit that Acorn operation’s pretty thorough.” Heh.

A LIST OF five geoengineering plans to stop global warming. At least they won’t make electricity prices skyrocket.

A CONTINUOUSLY UPDATED election news roundup at PJM.