HMM: AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch. “The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain’s ‘Joe the plumber’ analogy struck a chord.” Can you trust this poll? I dunno. This shows a big Obama lead. Can you trust any of them?

UPDATE: Michael Barone: “Can we trust the polls this year? That’s a question many people have been asking as we approach the end of this long, long presidential campaign. As a recovering pollster and continuing poll consumer, my answer is yes — with qualifications.” Okay, but which ones can we trust?

ANOTHER UPDATE: The IBD/TIPP tracking poll has tightened. “McCain has picked up 3 points in the West and with independents, married women and those with some college. He’s also gaining momentum in the suburbs, where he’s gone from dead even a week ago to a 20-point lead. Obama padded gains in urban areas and with lower-class households, but he slipped 4 points with parents.”

MORE: Obama is tied in the AP poll but way ahead in the Fox News poll. Go figure.