DUPUY INSTITUTE: The Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 – Day 140 (ground actions).

Lysychansk fell July 3 to Russia. The Russians have advanced some to the west since then and continue slowing advancing, but people are now talking about an “operational pause.” I am really not sure what that means. You either have the aggregated combat power to move forward against your opponent or you don’t. If you don’t, then you halt and rest. Of course, your opponent also gets to rest. Which army is in more need of rest, which army is receiving more new and modern equipment, which army is receiving more new trained troops?

Russia may be able to shift combat forces from other areas, but so can Ukraine. Russia is clearly not pausing because they have outrun their supply lines like the Soviet Army did in Ukraine in February 1943. They haven’t advanced fast enough to outrun much of anything.

Ukraine is making Russia pay for every inch, but until they start taking back ground that Russia chooses to keep holding, they risk the West losing interest. A negotiated settlement would probably be best for all involved, but Biden lacks the clout and the smarts to broker one.

It’s a stupid war that Putin started (and Biden’s sanctions are either failing or backfiring) but, so far, God remains on the side of the heavy artillery.