Author Archive: Stephen Green

HMM: China Is Facing Housing Market Disaster.

According to data, China’s property sector is the single largest asset class in the world, as Adem Tumerkan, editor at Speculators Anonymous, told Newsweek. “It’s estimated to be worth over $60 trillion—far more than China’s bond and equity markets combined,” he said.

“When I was still at UBS a few years ago, we used to call it the most important sector in the world,” economist George Magnus, once chief economist of UBS and now an associate at the China Centre at the University of Oxford in the U.K., told Newsweek. “Most people kind of accept that even allowing for a bit of double counting and dubious inclusions, it’s probably about a quarter of [China’s] GDP.”

This is a huge slice of GDP when compared with other large economies. Not only this sector is massively important for China, but it’s also closely tied to the personal finances and savings of Chinese households, as “Chinese people don’t really invest in equities or financial assets,” Magnus said, and the property sector has become “a form of saving for the urban middle class.”

About 70 percent of household wealth in China is tied to the real estate sector, “a massive amount,” according to Tumerkan. “It really emphasizes how dangerous falling home prices can be on household balance sheets and confidence,” he said.

But while prices fall…: China is estimated to have nearly 25% of the entire US building stock under construction right now.

China needs to deleverage from real estate but they keep doubling down, instead.

THEY’RE ALWAYS IN THE FIRST PLACE YOU LOOK: Hey, I Finally Found Those Nazis! “Sure enough, since October 7 it’s been easy to find Nazis everywhere — and you don’t even have to squint. I found some last night at that bastion of right-wing nastiness called George Washington University.”

BLUE STATE BLUES: Several California cities among the ‘rattiest’ in the U.S., according to Orkin.

Orkin has released its annual list of America’s “Rattiest” cities, and the City of Angeles landed in the number two spot, climbing one notch year-over-year.

Chicago was number one for the ninth consecutive year. San Fransisco was No. 5, San Diego was No. 28 and Sacramento was 33rd.

The rankings, Orkin says, are not based on the number of rats in the city or any official count (as if that were possible), but instead are drawn from “the number of new rodent services” – meaning how often they’re called to deal with rat infestation.

To be fair, Ohio got dinged for having cities ranked 10th, 18th, and 31st.

IT WORKED AGAINST CIGARETTE MAKERS: 41 states sue Meta, claiming Instagram, Facebook are addictive, harm kids. “The barrage of lawsuits is the culmination of a sprawling 2021 investigation into claims that Meta contributes to mental health issues among young people. While the scope of the legal claims vary, they paint a picture of a company that has hooked children on its platforms using harmful and manipulative tactics.”

KRUISER’S MORNING BRIEFING: Obama Eager to Remind Everyone He’s an Idiot on Foreign Policy. “Unfortunately, half the country thinks that he’s the most brilliant man to do brilliant things in the history of brilliance. Anyone who disagrees with that, according to them, is — say it with me — racist.”

PEOPLE WANT TO BUY THEM IN LARGE NUMBERS? Influential Porsche designer says Chinese electric car manufacturers have one crucial advantage.

Though China does possess an advantage in key components like raw materials, processing and battery manufacturing, a key Porsche figurehead noticed something very different that Chinese manufacturers have, that other, more established companies like Porsche do not.

In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Porsche chief designer Michael Mauer said that Chinese car companies have an advantage because the strict guidelines that more-established brands use to protect their “heritage” limit the creativity of their designers, but also help to inspire new ideas.

“These startups, with no heritage, they can do things completely different,” Mauer told Bloomberg. “I consider it a positive thing actually, as a designer, because that makes the decision-makers — I.E., the management board — more open-minded.”

It’s going to take a lot more than looks to broaden the EV market beyond early adopters, enthusiasts, and the pretty limited market where EV makes more economic sense than ICE.

HMM: ‘Netanyahu Got All the Warnings,’ Says Former Head of Israeli Military Intelligence.

There were nine months that Netanyahu pushed Israel into a domestic crisis that took all the energy of everybody. The attention of Israel was inside and not outside. And Netanyahu got all the warnings — from his defense minister, from the chief of staff, from the head of intelligence, from the head of Shin Bet and from independent writers like me, like others — that this is weakening Israel deterrence and endangering Israeli national security, that he is risking and weakening every source of Israeli power — the high-tech industry, the Air Force, the intelligence, the deterrence, the relations with the world, with the U.S.

Netanyahu also has to be blamed for releasing Sinwar and hundreds of other dangerous terrorists [in the 2011 Shalit deal]. And he conflated Hamas with the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah because the PA was a body that he should negotiate with, and he didn’t want to negotiate. So he said, ‘OK, Hamas is not that dangerous, we can live with it. Every three, four years, we’ll do a round of exchange of fire. But this is not the most dangerous enemy of Israel.’

There’s obviously political positioning going on, now and during Netanyahu’s heavily politicized corruption trial. But it’s also difficult to argue that Israel’s security position improved during Bibi’s long tenure.

SARAH HOYT’S SHOCKED FACE REQUIRES A CLEANUP ON AISLE FOUR: Government-Run Grocery Store Is Predictably Losing Money. “In Chicago, officials envision a city-owned grocery store as a way to address food deserts in neighborhoods where privately owned stores have closed and moved away. But rather than trying—and inevitably failing—to duplicate those services at the public’s expense, Johnson should instead listen to why the likes of Walmart and Safeway have bailed. ‘Grocery operators have pointed to crime and homelessness as reasons they’ve needed to invest more in security, driving up costs,’ the Chicago Sun-Times reported earlier this year.”

THREAD:

Read the whole thing.

NICE JOB, LADIES: Squad of female IDF combat troops eliminated nearly 100 Hamas terrorists.

For nearly four hours, terrorists attempted to outflank Ben-Yehuda and her team, engaging them in firefights. More vans arrived, but the Caracal Battalion commander effectively thwarted them. Additional Light Anti-Armor Weapon (LAW) missiles were launched, further eliminating terrorists: Some were killed, and others retreated.

Despite wounds to some of her soldiers, they persevered.

After hours of intense combat, soldiers from the Shayetet (flotilla) 13 Navy Special Forces unit arrived to clear the base of terrorists. Drones were launched to assist them. The firefights continued, and wounded soldiers were evacuated. They remained at the base for a total of 14 hours until it was fully secured.

Ben-Yehuda emphasized the significant contributions of the female soldiers under her command, who saved many lives through medical care and even daring helicopter landings under fire. Their remarkable performance under the extreme pressure of war highlighted their capabilities.

Previously: Islamists’ Fear of Females: The Roots of Gynophobic Misogyny among the Taliban and Islamic State.

Well, now they have good reason.