Author Archive: Stephen Green

BREXIT: MPs ‘considering using majority’ to keep UK in single market.

Pro-Remain MPs are considering using their Commons majority to keep Britain inside the EU single market if there is a vote for Brexit, the BBC has learned.

The MPs fear a post-Brexit government might negotiate a limited free trade deal with the EU, which they say would damage the UK’s economy.

There is a pro-Remain majority in the House of Commons of 454 MPs to 147.

Perhaps Parliament should dissolve the people and elect a new one.

SOCIAL MEDIA’S DARK SIDE: Documents Show How Russia’s Troll Army Hit America.

The documents show instructions provided to the commenters that detail the workload expected of them. On an average working day, the Russians are to post on news articles 50 times. Each blogger is to maintain six Facebook accounts publishing at least three posts a day and discussing the news in groups at least twice a day. By the end of the first month, they are expected to have won 500 subscribers and get at least five posts on each item a day. On Twitter, the bloggers are expected to manage 10 accounts with up to 2,000 followers and tweet 50 times a day.

They are to post messages along themes called “American Dream” and “I Love Russia.” The archetypes for the accounts are called Handkerchief, Gay Turtle, The Ghost of Marius the Giraffe, Left Breast, Black Breast, and Ass, for reasons that are not immediately clear.

According to the documents, which are attached to several hundred emails sent to the project’s leader, Igor Osadchy, the effort was launched in April and is led by a firm called the Internet Research Agency. It’s based in a Saint Petersburg suburb, and the documents say it employs hundreds of people across Russia who promote Putin in comments on Russian blogs.

Not just Russian blogs, I’ve noticed.

HOPE: The Kids Love Sanders Even More Than They Loved Obama.

According to the Tufts analysis, in 2008 Obama defeated Clinton among under-30 voters by a 60-35 margin. So far Sanders is beating Clinton by a 71-28 margin. Obama racked up 2.2 million youth votes in the 25 states included in the study. Sanders has won an estimated 2.4 million in those states, with California, New Jersey, and a scattering of smaller states still to vote. Based on recent polling in California (the Field Poll has Sanders leading Clinton 75-10 among under-30s), it doesn’t look like Sanders’s domination in this demographic is going to change before the final bell.

Millions of young voters going doe-eyed for an aging socialist is in the longterm far more worrisome than anything Donald Trump ever did or said.

THAT’S NOT FUNNY: Mocking Putin Got Me Sent to Twitter Gulag.

I run the @DarthPutinKGB “parody” account.
…
Someone, somewhere, was not amused. Last Tuesday the account was suspended as, despite a bio that said “146% of Russians didn’t elect me. You don’t visit Russia, I visit you. I serve tea to those who call this parody. Tweets made while topless signed “vvp” it was decided it could be confused with the real person and thus violated Twitter’s terms of service.

So what lead Twitter to shut down this obvious parody account? Well, Darth wasn’t the first to be sent to Twitter’s gulag for re-education.

“Darth’s” exposé is even more revealing about Jack Dorsey’s Twitter than it is about Vladimir Putin’s Kremlin.

Read the whole thing.

FRAN COOMBS: The Undecideds Have It.

Right now Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are going nowhere.

Rasmussen Reports’ regular polling shows them both hovering around 40% support where they’ve been for weeks. Throw the most prominent third-party candidate in the mix, Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson, and they both drop only slightly.

In both matchups, though, there remain an unusually high number of voters who prefer some other candidate or are still undecided. Undecideds in single digits are not unusual at this stage of the election season, but when nearly one-in-four voters say they’ll vote third-party or stay home, it’s time to wonder why.

Are they really looking for another candidate? Are they still trying to make up their minds between Clinton and Trump? Or are they just not telling the truth?

Nobody knows.

Candidates usually risk doom by ignoring the pollsters, but in 2016 Trump might be on the right track.

HOPE: Panama Papers Show How Rich United States Clients Hid Millions Abroad.

In recent weeks, the papers’ revelations about Mossack Fonseca’s international clientele have shaken the financial world. The Times’s examination of the files found that Mossack Fonseca also had at least 2,400 United States-based clients over the past decade, and set up at least 2,800 companies on their behalf in the British Virgin Islands, Panama, the Seychelles and other jurisdictions that specialize in helping hide wealth.

Many of these transactions were legal; there are legitimate reasons to create offshore accounts, particularly when setting up a business overseas or buying real estate in a foreign country.

But the documents — confidential emails, copies of passports, ledgers of bank transactions and even the various code names used to refer to clients — show that the firm did much more than simply create offshore shell companies and accounts. For many of its American clients, Mossack Fonseca offered a how-to guide of sorts on skirting or evading United States tax and financial disclosure laws.

If we had a comprehensible tax code and reasonable tax rates, shell games like these — and the political bottom-feeders who facilitate them — wouldn’t exist.

ARIZONA GOP SENATOR JEFF FLAKE: I can’t support Donald Trump at this point.

“It’s uncomfortable not having endorsed the Republican nominee, I have to say, but I can’t at this point,” Mr. Flake said on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.”

“I hope to be able to support the nominee. I certainly can’t right now,” Mr. Flake said.

Even Republican leaders who have said they’ll support Mr. Trump, such as House Speaker Paul D. Ryan and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, have distanced themselves from Mr. Trump’s attacks on Judge Gonzalo Curiel, who is overseeing one of the cases alleging fraud against Trump University.

Mr. Trump has said Judge Curiel has a conflict of interest because he has Mexican ancestry and Mr. Trump has pledged to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border.

“His statements this week on the judge — that’s a new level,” Mr. Flake said. “Because it’s not just … ill-informed or ignorant statements, but they suggest that when he’s president, you know, after November, that … perhaps he ought to go after that judge. That’s a whole new level. So that’s — it’s very disturbing.”

To be fair, it’s nothing new under the Obama Administration, but it might be a whole new level for a Republican.

NOBEL PEACE PRIZE UPDATE: Russia Triples its Airstrikes in Syria.

“The escalation marks a dangerous shift in the Russian airstrike pattern to levels only seen prior to the brokering of the cessation of hostilities agreement in late February,” said Genevieve Casagrande, an analyst with the Institute for the Study of War.

The expansion, she notes, coincides with a further breakdown of the internationally-brokered Geneva peace negotiations, which opposition politicians dismiss as a “waste of breath” because of the continued airstrikes on opposition-held territory both by Russian warplanes and the air force of President Bashar al-Assad.

Russia’s air campaign to aid Assad does seem to be yielding better results than the US effort to assist Baghdad.

HMMM: Donald Trump Backs Rep. Renee Ellmers vs. GOP Grassroots in N.C. Primary.

“I need [Ellmers’] help in Washington so we can work together to defeat ISIS, secure our border, and bring back jobs and frankly so many other things,” Trump says in the recording. “Renee knows how to do it. She gets it, and together we will make America great again”

Ellmers was first elected in Congress in the Tea Party wave of 2010. She unseated long-time Democrat Rep. Bob Etheridge with the backing of groups like Americans for Prosperity and conservative icons like Sarah Palin.

Since her election, the conservative and grass roots groups have soured on Ellmers.

“Renee Ellmers, in 2009 and 2010, she came to AFP [Americans for Prosperity] events and touted her conservative values,” said AFP president Tim Phillips. “And she hasn’t kept her word on that.”

“Renee Ellmers’ votes to fund Syrian refugees, Planned Parenthood, and President Obama’s amnesty plan are all shining examples of a Washington politician who has gone native,” Citizens United Political Victory Fund President David Bossie said earlier this year.

Yesterday Trump hired GOP consultant and Bob Dole ’96 advisor Jim Murphy as his national political director, after ditching Governor Scott Walker’s former campaign manager, Rick Wiley, two weeks ago.

JAYVEE: Aid group says ISIS shooting Fallujah residents attempting to flee fighting.

A number of those fleeing civilians have been killed as they tried to cross the Euphrates River, the Norwegian Refugee Council said in a report late Sunday. The NRC, which works with refugees and internally displaced Iraqis, cited interviews with some of those who fled in its report late Sunday.

Iraqi forces, backed by U.S.-led coalition airstrikes, have been fighting to retake the ISIS-held city of Fallujah since late May but the advance stalled last week because of heavy resistance the militants have put up and because an estimated 50,000 civilians remain trapped inside the city.

The offensive to retake Mosul after two years of occupation was put on hold back in April, and now the effort in Fallujah appears to be stalling as well.

FASTER, PLEASE: U.S. Set to Approve Moon Mission by Commercial Space Venture.

The government’s endorsement would eliminate the largest regulatory hurdle to plans by Moon Express, a relatively obscure space startup, to land a roughly 20-pound package of scientific hardware on the Moon sometime next year.

It also would provide the biggest federal boost yet for unmanned commercial space exploration and, potentially, the first in an array of for-profit ventures throughout the solar system.

The expected decision, said the people familiar with the details, is expected to set important legal and diplomatic precedents for how Washington will ensure such nongovernmental projects comply with longstanding international space treaties. The principles are likely to apply to future spacecraft whose potential purposes range from mining asteroids to tracking space debris.

Those regulatory hurdles ought to be reduced to mere speed bumps.

CHANGE: Swiss voters reject referendum on guaranteed income.

The reason for the opposition isn’t what you’d expect, either. Most aren’t worried that a universal basic income would disincentivize workers from finding jobs or turn Switzerland into a Marxist dystopia. The fear is that $2,500 a month would make the country too attractive to economic migrants.

Luzi Stamm, who represents the right-leaning Swiss People’s Party in parliament, said to the BBC, “Theoretically, if Switzerland were an island, the answer is yes. But with open borders, it’s a total impossibility, especially for Switzerland, with a high living standard.”

“If you would offer every individual a Swiss amount of money, you would have billions of people who would try to move into Switzerland,” Stamm said.

Incentives matter.

A PIPELINE PROJECT EVERYONE WILL APPROVE: This summer, a two-mile pipeline that carries beer will open in a Belgian city.

“In the beginning, everyone thought it was kind of a joke,” Vanneste told The Washington Post in a phone interview. “Something like an underground beer pipeline would never be possible.”

So he spoke with some friends who are used to transporting a slightly more viscous liquid.

“I talked about it with some people I know in the oil and gas industry, and they said, ‘Why would it not be possible for beer?’” he said.

Not only is it possible, it’s opening this summer.

For all the EU’s bureaucratic malaise, Vanneste is getting his pipeline built in just four months, while in Obama’s America we don’t have any beer pipelines at all.

HOPE: Top Clinton Adviser Says the Primary Is Over.

“Here’s what’s not in doubt — that at some point Tuesday night, Hillary Clinton will have a majority of pledged delegates. No. 1, she’ll have a majority of delegates overall and a significant majority in the popular vote,” senior Clinton strategist Joel Benenson said in interview with Jonathan Karl and Rick Klein on the ABC News “Powerhouse Politics” podcast.

“That’s why everybody in the party, except for a small group of people, are acknowledging that she will be and is the presumptive nominee in the Democratic Party,” Benenson said.

With numbers like these, Senator Sanders, there’s no reason to stop before Philly!

UNDER THE HEADLINES: Jeffrey Sparshott reports the underemployment rate remains near 10%, and that the labor participation rate fell yet again.

The headline unemployment rate gets much of the attention, but it’s not the only measure of labor-market slack. An alternative rate, which includes people looking for work, stuck in part-time jobs or who have been discouraged about finding a job, held steady at 9.7% in May. That matches the lowest level since 2008.

In May, the share of Americans participating in the workforce fell to 62.6%, the lowest level of the year. The rate started climbing in the fall and through the early months of the year, but that trend seems to have reversed. If the labor market gets stronger, that should draw more workers back, but an aging population means it likely won’t return to levels seen in the years just before the 2007-2009, when the level hovered around 66%.

On cue now: “Recovery summer!”