Author Archive: Stephen Green

BAD LUCK: Venezuela is on the brink of total collapse.

Home to the world’s worst economy, Venezuela is beset by severe food shortages, riots in the streets and hyperinflation that’s closing in on 700 percent. World oil prices have plummeted — and Venezuela relies on oil for 95 percent of its income.

Agriculture was neglected as Chavez and Maduro placed all their economic chips on crude and elected to import goods from abroad while spending on social programs that rallied the poor behind the government.

But now Venezuela has no cash to import food or other essentials. And because Chavez nationalized so much industry, it has no private sector to compensate.

So Maduro has now issued an executive decree that subjects all workers to being forced to work for 60 days (or more, “if circumstances merit”) in the fields, growing badly needed food.

Economically, the move makes no sense. Morally, it’s barely one step up from government-sanctioned slavery.

It is government-sanctioned slavery. If only someone had written a book about how this thing always seems to happen to centrally-managed economies.

PEACE IN OUR TIME: Charges Against Cleric Put Iran’s Balkan Activities Under Spotlight.

Bejandi is the most high-profile Iranian cleric to be accused in the predominantly Muslim country, potentially cutting off a rare avenue of influence for Tehran in Europe, where charities believed to be tied to Iran also operate in Albania, Macedonia, and Bosnia-Herzegovina.

The charges against Bejandi come amid a recent crackdown by authorities on foreign-funded Islamic organizations, which the government blames for the radicalization of Kosovar youths and the high numbers of people who have joined extremist groups in Syria and Iraq.

I had been assured that cutting a nuclear deal with Iran would empower the moderates in Tehran and help put an end to these hardline shenanigans.

RECOVERY SUMMER: Construction spending falls to one-year low in June.

Construction spending declined 0.6 percent to its lowest level since June 2015 after an upwardly revised 0.1 percent dip in May, the Commerce Department said on Monday. Construction outlays were up 0.3 percent from a year ago.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast construction spending rising 0.5 percent in June after a previously reported 0.8 percent drop in May. Their June estimates were largely based on the government’s assumptions for private residential and nonresidential construction spending in the advance GDP report.

The anticipated downward revision will come unexpectedly.

ANALYSIS: Hillary Clinton is delusional.

When asked about her home-brewed server in an interview with Chris Wallace on Sunday, Mrs. Clinton maintained she did nothing wrong and her previous statements were consistent with what Mr. Comey said.

“Chris, that’s not what I heard Director Comey say, and I thank you for giving me the opportunity, in my view, to clarify. Director Comey said my answers were truthful, and what I’ve said is consistent with what I have told the American people, that there were decisions discussed and made to classify retroactively certain of the e-mails. I was communicating with over 300 people in my e-mailing,” Mrs. Clinton said.

“They certainly did not believe and had no reason to believe that what they were sending was classified. In retrospect, different agencies come in and say, well, it should have been, but that’s not what was happening in real time,” she said.

The lies are confounding — she actually still believes she holds the correct narrative. And I say narrative because her statement has no factual basis in truth, it’s make-believe.

According to her own top aide, Clinton is “often confused.”

RED LINES: As Obama Dithers, Syrian Rebels in Aleppo Brace for Putin’s Onslaught.

The Russians are pursuing a strategy lifted from their playbook in Grozny during the last Chechen war, and Aleppo could soon become the new “most destroyed city on earth.”
…
A top official of the Syrian opposition said he’s convinced Russia’s intent is use the methods it deployed to destroy Grozny. The capital of the Chechen Republic was the scene of bloody combat in 1994-95, and then again in 1999-2000, early in Putin’s first presidency. At that point leaflets were dropped offering people safe passage out of the city, and after a brief pause the real devastation began. In 2003, the United Nations reportedly called Grozny “the most destroyed city on earth.” The war was over, and on Putin’s terms.

Even the Obama administration, long accused by its critics of fecklessness and of appeasing the Assad regime’s two outside supporters, Iran and Russia, mustered a strong verbal response.

Well then.

BUT OF COURSE: Erdogan wants spy agency under his control.

“We are going to introduce a small constitutional package (to parliament) which, if approved, will bring the National Intelligence Organisation (MIT) and chief of staff under the control of the presidency,” he told A-Haber television in an interview.

The government would need support from opposition parties to push through the shift as a super majority of two-thirds of deputies is needed to make constitutional changes.

Erdogan added that in the wake of the July 15 coup bid “military schools will be closed… and a national military university will be founded” as part of a wide-ranging shake-up of the army.

He also said that in future the heads of the land, sea and air forces will also have to report directly to Defence Minister Fikri Isik.

The changes, announced just over two weeks after the coup, appear aimed at giving Erdogan more control over the armed forces and intelligence.

It wasn’t a failed coup; it’s a successful purge.

QUESTION ASKED: Why did Hillary’s State Department urge U.S. investors to fund Russian research for military uses?

Consider Skolkovo, an “innovation city” of 30,000 people on the outskirts of Moscow, billed as Russia’s version of Silicon Valley—and a core piece of Mrs. Clinton’s quarterbacking of the Russian reset.

Following his 2009 visit to Moscow, President Obama announced the creation of the U.S.-Russia Bilateral Presidential Commission. Mrs. Clinton as secretary of state directed the American side, and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov represented the Russians. The stated goal at the time: “identifying areas of cooperation and pursuing joint projects and actions that strengthen strategic stability, international security, economic well-being, and the development of ties between the Russian and American people.”

The Kremlin committed $5 billion over three years to fund Skolkovo. Mrs. Clinton’s State Department worked aggressively to attract U.S. investment partners and helped the Russian State Investment Fund, Rusnano, identify American tech companies worthy of Russian investment. Rusnano, which a scientific adviser to President Vladimir Putin called “Putin’s child,” was created in 2007 and relies entirely on Russian state funding.

What could possibly go wrong?

Read the whole thing. It’s behind the WSJ paywall, but you might find a way around it here.

HOPE: Not much love at Florida delegation breakfast for U.S. Senate candidates.

[Patrick] Murphy, of Jupiter, has been plagued by résumé-inflation woes. [Alan] Grayson, of Orlando, has become consumed by scandals, most recently over domestic-abuse allegations from his ex-wife.

It’s not that Democrats don’t want to defeat Rubio (or his primary rival, Carlos Beruff, who wasn’t mentioned). Speaker after speaker at the breakfast, including Hillary Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook, highlighted the importance of flipping Rubio’s U.S. Senate seat. But their comments were mostly generic.

Somewhere, Rubio is smiling.

RCP has Florida trending for Trump, too, if only barely.

CHANGE: EU Calls Turkey’s Crackdown on Media “Worrying”

Authorities have issued warrants for the detention of 89 journalists. Dozens of media organizations—most of them also linked or formerly linked to Gulen—were ordered shuttered late Wednesday. They include 45 newspapers including the daily Taraf newspaper, 16 television stations, including a children’s channel, 23 radio stations, 15 magazines and 29 publishing houses.

Gulen was a close ally of Erdogan until tensions between the two came to a head with corruption allegations against Erdogan’s inner circle in 2013. For years, media affiliated with Gulen had been vocal supporters of Erdogan’s government.

Leon Trotsky once worked closely with Joseph Stalin, too.

NOT EXACTLY LOVIN’ IT: McDonalds discounts hurting franchisees.

“We are discounting heavily, against my will, so sales should be up and profits down,” a franchisee wrote in response to a more recent survey by Nomura.

Another wrote: “I am very alarmed about the discounting push. I have never seen the corporation be so aggressive with discounts. The regional marketing teams are adding numerous other discounts to the McPick 2, primarily breakfast items. They are encouraging, quite literally, everything being on sale. This is a very hard cultural adjustment for me.”

Saunders said McDonald’s needed to invest more in automation to lower labor costs and offset the impact of customers buying cheaper food.

“The solution to all of this [is] in more automation — something that McDonald’s has started but is still a long way off perfecting,” Saunders wrote.

The chain seems to be falling into the same permanent discounts trap which has bedeviled Jos A Bank in recent years.

KNOWN WOLVES:

More from the Daily Mail:

One of the terrorists, a 19-year-old Frenchman who lived close to the church, is said to have left for Syria in 2015 to try and join Islamic State, but he was arrested.

He was jailed for terrorist offences following a short trial in France, before being released on March 2 this year.

The Tribune de Geneve reports he tried travelling to Syria via Turkey, but was kicked out of the country and arrested at Geneva airport on May 14 last year.

It was the second time he tried to reach Syria, the first time via Munich unsuccessfully, before he tried through Switzerland.

He was jailed for a few days in in the prison of Champ-Dollon before being extradited to France and convicted of conspiracy to prepare acts of terrorism.

His conditions included returning to live with his parents, wearing an electronic tag, and reporting to his local police station.

But this did not stop him becoming involved in today’s atrocity, in which Father Jacques Hamel, 86, had his throat cut.

According to his bail conditions, the electronically tagged terrorist was allowed out unsupervised between 8.30am and 12.30pm.

Unsupervised?

I FAIL TO SEE THE DOWNSIDE: The Double Edge of Cheap Gasoline — and It’s Getting Even Cheaper.

Analysts say there’s simply too much gasoline and too much oil, and prices fell early this week amid crude supply concerns. West Texas Intermediate oil futures dropped 2.4 percent to $43.13 per barrel. According to AAA, the national average for unleaded gasoline is down 15 cents in a month.

“These are the cheapest gasoline prices for the end of July since 2004. There’s 36 states where you see gas less than $2 a gallon. The really cheap prices will be between Labor Day and Election Day,” said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at Oil Price Information Services. Kloza expects the national average to fall below $2 per gallon, and said another 10 percent decline could easily be in store.

Have you hugged a fracker today?

TURKISH RESET: Putin, Erdogan Mend Ties as Post-Coup Turkey Turns Toward Russia.

Russia “isn’t just our close and friendly neighbor, but also a strategic partner,” Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Simsek, who announced the Aug. 9 visit, said at talks in Moscow with his Russian counterpart Arkady Dvorkovich on Tuesday. “Today, we are here to normalize the situation and our relations as soon as possible and at an accelerated pace since they were disrupted on November 24,” when Turkish fighter jets shot down a Russian warplane near the Syrian border, he said.

There’ll be no shortage of things to discuss at the summit between Putin and Erdogan, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on a conference call Tuesday as he confirmed the Aug. 9 meeting in St. Petersburg.

The attempt by elements of the military to oust Erdogan has turbo-charged efforts to restore ties between Turkey and Russia that were already under way after the crisis over the downing of the warplane. The rapprochement may even lead to a political realignment in the region.

A week or so ago I admitted I was getting “paranoid enough to wonder if we shouldn’t be looking for Vladimir Putin’s fingerprints” somewhere on the coup or post-coup purge. Today it seems that “paranoid enough” might not be paranoid enough.

There is also now a non-zero chance that Putin will accomplish what none of his Soviet predecessors could, and knock NATO’s southern tier out from under it.

YET ANOTHER AWFUL ATTACK IN FRANCE: Attackers Storm French Church and Take Hostages, Killing a Priest.

The Paris prosecutor’s office, which handles counterterrorism investigations in France, announced that it was taking charge of the case, indicating that officials were treating it as a terrorist attack.

Officials announced that President François Hollande and Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve would travel to the town where the church is located, St.-Étienne-du-Rouvray, a suburb of Rouen that has about 29,000 inhabitants, about 65 miles northwest of Paris.

Prime Minister Manuel Valls expressed horror at what he called “a barbaric attack on a church,” adding: “The whole of France and all Catholics are wounded. We will stand together.”

The Interior Ministry confirmed the death of one man and said that another person had been critically injured.

Archbishop Dominique Lebrun of Rouen, in a statement from Krakow, Poland, where he and other Roman Catholic leaders were gathered for the World Youth Day event, identified the victim as the Rev. Jacques Hamel, 86, the auxiliary priest at the church.

Reached on his cellphone, the parish priest, the Rev. Auguste Moanda-Phuati, 50, said that he was rushing back to the church from a vacation near Paris and that Father Hamel was assigned to celebrate Mass on Tuesday.

The Rev. Federico Lombardi, a spokesman for the Vatican, said that Pope Francis was horrified at the “barbaric killing” of a priest and issued “the most severe condemnation of all forms of hatred.”

The attack in France, and the ensuing police response, unfolded rapidly.

At 10:56 a.m., the National Police urged residents via Twitter to keep away from the scene and not enter the perimeter around the church. At 11:15 a.m., the police said that the crisis was over, with two hostage-takers “neutralized” by the police.

That last part is a relief.