Author Archive: Stephen Green

COUNTERCOUP: Top Venezuela official breaks with government, protests escalate.

Venezuela’s powerful attorney general on Friday rebuked the judiciary’s takeover of congress, breaking ranks with President Nicolas Maduro’s socialist government as protests and international condemnation grew.

“It constitutes a rupture of the constitutional order. It’s my obligation to express my great concern to the country,” said Luisa Ortega, usually considered a key ally of the Socialists who have ruled Venezuela for the last 18 years.

While various prominent political figures have leveled criticism after leaving the government, it is extremely rare for a senior official to make such criticism. It may be interpreted by opponents that Maduro’s internal support is cracking.

And:

Maduro, 54, a former bus driver and self-declared “son” of late leftist predecessor Hugo Chavez, was narrowly elected in 2013 amid widespread support for the ruling Socialist Party’s oil-fueled welfare programs.

But his ratings have plummeted to just over 20 percent as Venezuelans struggle with a fourth year of recession, scarcities of food and medicines and the highest inflation in the world.

Unexpectedly.

RETIREMENT: Center Fuselage Rebuild Could Be F-15C/D Achilles’ Heel.

The F-15C may still have an undefeated aerial combat record, but the 38-year-old aircraft could be slated for retirement if the U.S. Air Force decides not to fund a major structural life-extension program. Air Combat Command (ACC) chief Gen. Mike Holmes says it could cost $30-40 million per aircraft to keep the Eagle soaring beyond the late 2020s, including rebuilding the center fuselage section, among other refurbishments. “We’re probably not going to do that.”

With fewer than 200 F-22s to fulfill the role of about 450 F-15Cs, retirement next decade could leave an awfully big hole in our Air Force lineup.

CHARLES KRAUTHAMMER: Single-payer, here we come.

A broad national consensus is developing that health care is indeed a right. This is historically new. And it carries immense implications for the future. It suggests that we may be heading inexorably to a government-run, single-payer system. It’s what Barack Obama once admitted he would have preferred but didn’t think the country was ready for. It may be ready now.

As Obamacare continues to unravel, it won’t take much for Democrats to abandon that Rube Goldberg wreckage and go for the simplicity and the universality of Medicare-for-all. Republicans will have one last chance to try to convince the country to remain with a market-based system, preferably one encompassing all the provisions that, for procedural reasons, had been left out of their latest proposal.

Don’t be surprised, however, if, in the end, single-payer wins out. Indeed, I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if Donald Trump, reading the zeitgeist, pulls the greatest 180 since Disraeli dished the Whigs in 1867 (by radically expanding the franchise) and joins the single-payer side.

That would be a less than 180-degree turnaround, given that Trump has on more than one occasion talked about “insurance for everybody” as part of his repeal & replace promise.

CHANGE: Trump to Sign Executive Order Targeting Trade Abuses.

On Friday, the president will sign a pair of executive orders aimed at cracking down on trade abuses, according to top administration officials. The first calls for the completion of a large-scale report to identify “every form of trade abuse and every non-reciprocal practice that now contributes to the U.S. trade deficit,” said Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross.

Officials will have 90 days to produce a country-by-country, product-by-product report that will serve as the basis of future decision-making by the administration on trade-related issues, Ross told reporters at a Thursday night briefing.

“It will demonstrate the administration’s intention not to hip-shoot, not to do anything casual, not to do anything abruptly, but to take a very measured and analytical approach, both to analyzing the problem and therefore to developing the solutions for it,” he said.

Seems sensible enough.

WINNING: Cramer says ConocoPhillips just proved low oil prices are here to stay.

Jim Cramer saw ConocoPhillips’ sale of a portion of its oil sands to Canadian producer Cenovus as a sign that the oil glut will keep prices low for a while.

“In one fell swoop ConocoPhillips confirmed a lot of what’s become the conventional wisdom in the oil patch: the price of crude’s not going to roar higher any time soon, even as it rallied nicely again today, climbing back over $50,” the “Mad Money” host said.

The purchase, which left ConocoPhillips with $10.6 billion in cash and $2.7 billion in stock, sent its shares soaring. Cramer said the company sold the sands because at today’s prices, extracting oil from tar sands is simply not worth the cost.

“It’s much better to take money from Cenovus, pay down debt, buy back stock and potentially increase the dividend than to keep pouring money into the dirtiest and most nasty form of oil around, the tar sands,” Cramer said.

Tar sands will remain uneconomical — right up until they stop.

VENEZUELA COUP: Alarm grows as court takes power.

There have been demonstrations in Venezuela after the Supreme Court took over legislative powers from the National Assembly.

Critics say the development takes the country closer to one-man rule under President Nicolas Maduro.
The Organisation of American States (OAS) described the move as the “final blow to democracy in the country”.

The ruling effectively dissolves the elected legislature which has been dominated by the president’s opponents.

The secretary general of the OAS, Luis Almagro, described the move as a “self-inflicted coup” by Mr Maduro’s government.

It comes after months of consolidation of power by the country’s president, who is locked in a political struggle with the centre-right opposition.

On Thursday the Venezuelan Supreme Court seized power from the opposition-led legislature, a move that could essentially allow it to write laws itself.

Ever notice how a “dictatorship of the proletariat” always ends up looking an awful lot like a regular old dictatorship?

ONE DOWN…

It’s a safe bet that Chuck Schumer’s whip count is high enough to give Heitkamp the cover she needs.

UPDATE: Make that two down — Manchin (no surprise) is also a Yes.

HMM: Michael Flynn’s Immunity Request Rejected By Senate Intelligence Committee.

A senior congressional official with direct knowledge said Flynn’s lawyer was told it was “wildly preliminary” and that immunity was “not on the table” at the moment. A second source said the committee communicated that it is “not receptive” to Flynn’s request “at this time.”

The senior congressional official also said that Flynn’s lawyer had conveyed the offer of testimony in exchange for immunity from prosecution to the Justice Department.

As NBC News reported Thursday, Flynn told the Intelligence Committee he was willing to be interviewed about the Trump campaign’s possible ties to Russia in return for a no-prosecution guarantee.

Flynn’s lawyer, Robert Kelner, confirmed in a statement that discussions had taken place with the House and Senate Intelligence Committees, and said “General Flynn certainly has a story to tell, and he very much wants to tell it.”

Developing…

ALLIES: Tillerson and Turks fail to agree on next moves in fight against Islamic State in Syria.

Washington and Ankara disagree sharply over how to wage war against Islamic State militants in Syria, with the U.S. backing Kurdish militias whom the Turks disdain as terrorists.

Although Tillerson sought to put the best face possible after the day’s drawn-out talks, it was clear no agreement was reached. He acknowledged that “difficult choices have to be made.”

“Let there be no mistake,” Tillerson told reporters after more than two hours behind closed doors with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, “There is no space between Turkey and the United States in our commitment to defeat [Islamic State]. …

“There is more discussion yet to be had regarding the way forward,” Tillerson added. “They are difficult options, let me be very frank. These are not easy decisions.”

Tillerson is saying the things a SecState needs to say in a situation like this one, but really there is a great deal of space between Turkey and the United States — filled with Kurds whom Ankara would like to kill and whom we see as our strongest MidEast allies outside of Israel.

RICHARD FERNANDEZ: Reaction Time. “The instinctive reaction of politicians when visibility is poor is to repeat the actions which stabilized things in the past.”

Perhaps one reason for the current revolt against giant institutions like the EU, the UN and the Federal government is a subconscious realization among Western voters that technological and social change has gotten inside the loop of bureaucratic response; that whatever is pounding on the door will prove too fast for the sclerotic central planning bureaucracies to handle. There is no longer much confidence in the capacity of legacy institutions to identify problems at long range and to intercept them before it’s too late. Perhaps the most frightening thing about the Obama years was how he laughed at “Governor Romney” for warning Russia might be a problem.

They couldn’t see it coming. They couldn’t seem to see anything coming. Consequently the voters have decided to downsize, not necessarily in the interests of quality leadership but to optimize for reaction time; to appoint someone who will actually act — even in error — before it is too late.

Read the whole thing.

NO FOOLIN’: Very real April Fools’ Day Comet will zoom by Earth.

Comet 41p makes its way around the sun every 5.5 years, but this visit marks its closest point to us for over a century.

It will pass at a distance of just under 14 million miles (22.5 million kilometers). That’s plenty far away for us not to worry about it, but close enough for some potentially fun telescope observations.

You can watch it live on Slooh.

FEDERALISM: Senate Lets States Defund Clinics That Perform Abortions.

The measure fell under a somewhat obscure and, until recently, rarely used Congressional Review Act that allows a new Congress to undo actions of the old Congress during the first few months of the year.

It returns to the states the power to exclude health care centers that perform abortions from receiving Title X money set aside for family planning and related preventive health services for women. Title X grants cover contraception, as well as cancer and other disease screenings and treatments, but they cannot, under current federal law, be used to pay for abortion services.

It’s good to see Congress exercising its authority over the Executive branch via the CRA, and the leadership has promised much more to come.

THE F-35 HAS BEEN CRITICIZED FOR ITS SHORT RANGE, BUT THE MARINES HAVE A PLAN: The U.S. Military’s V-22 Osprey.

Bell-Boeing is continuing its work to develop a roll-on/roll-off aerial refueling tanker capability for the company’s MV-22 Osprey tilt-rotor at the behest of the U.S. Marine Corps. If all goes well, the Marines should have an organic aerial refueling capability for their expeditionary strike groups operational by the 2019-2020 timeframe.

The service wants the tanker capability for its fleet of Osprey so that the tilt-rotors would be able to extend the range of the Marines’ F-35B Joint Strike Fighters—which is becoming an increasingly important factor in the Pacific theatre. Dubbed, the VARS—V-22 Aerial Refueling System—the idea is for the Ospreys to top-off the F-35Bs as they takeoff from a large-deck amphibious assault ship with a full load of weapons but not fuel. The Ospreys would also be able to refuel the jets as they return—acting as a recovery tanker.

I was an early critic of the Osprey, but it keeps proving its worth in new and unexpected ways.

BJORN LOMBORG: Trump cuts show Paris treaty is a paper tiger.

In truth, Trump’s action just exposes what we have known for a while: The Paris Agreement is not the way to solve global warming.

Even if every nation fulfilled everything promised — including Obama’s undertakings — it would get us nowhere near achieving the treaty’s much-hyped, unrealistic promise to keep temperature rises under 1.5 degrees Celsius.

The U.N. itself has estimated that even if every country lived up to every single promised carbon cut between 2016 and 2030, emissions would be cut by just one-hundredth of what is needed to keep temperature rises below 2 C.

My analysis, similar to findings by scientists at MIT, shows that even if these promises were extended for 70 more years, then they’d only reduce temperature rises about 0.3 degrees F by 2100.

Moreover, many poor nations signed up to the treaty largely because of a promise of $100 billion a year of “climate aid” from rich nations, starting from 2020. Over the past five years, rich countries have managed to come up with only a 10th of one year’s promise.

Even its most ardent supporters treat their Paris obligations like the sham they are.

And in this country at least, calling the Paris agreement a treaty is a misnomer. Former President Obama never submitted it for Senate approval, relying instead on his pen and phone to give it more legal weight than it actually has.