SCOTT SNYDER AND SUNGTAE PARK: A Menu of Imperfect Strategic Options for South Korea.

One potential option for South Korea is to gradually align with a rising China while loosening its ties with the United States. But this policy relies on the assumption that China will be the next hegemon in Asia.

Given China’s slowing economic growth, internal problems and the fact that it continues to face competition with other regional actors, this outcome is not assured. China also does not share common liberal democratic values with South Korea, and Beijing is highly unlikely to help Seoul in the case of a North Korean attack, or respect South Korean interests. Siding with China would also not inoculate South Korea against losses in the event of rising US–China competition or even military conflict.

Another option is for South Korea to balance against China’s rise, together with the United States and Japan. But this could result in Seoul losing Beijing’s support altogether in dealing with Pyongyang. Moreover, if South Korea were to become the frontline state in a coalition against China, it would bear the brunt of the consequences of a US–China conflict, just as in the Korean War. There is also no knowing whether such balancing against China would succeed, but the price of failing would be costly.

Seoul could instead seek to remain neutral. But when great powers compete, they have incentives to draw a neutral state into their respective coalitions to gain advantage. Without a great power ally, deterring North Korea would also become more difficult.

Read the whole thing.

South Korea is also undergoing a leadership crisis, and voters appear poised to install leftwing presidential candidate Moon Jae-in, who comes with all the expected anti-American baggage.

Our relationship status with Seoul has always been It’s Complicated, but it’s getting more so.

RETENTION: Stop-Loss an Option for Air Force to Keep Departing Pilots.

We’re having trouble keeping enough pilots for an Air Force with about half the jets it had 30 years ago.

BE SMART: Liz Sheld’s indispensable morning brief is live at Hot Mic.

BLUSTER: North Korea state media warns of nuclear strike if provoked as U.S. warships approach.

Tension has escalated sharply on the Korean peninsula with talk of military action by the United States gaining traction following its strikes last week against Syria and amid concerns the reclusive North may soon conduct a sixth nuclear test.

North Korea’s official Rodong Sinmun newspaper said the country was prepared to respond to any aggression by the United States.

“Our revolutionary strong army is keenly watching every move by enemy elements with our nuclear sight focused on the U.S. invasionary bases not only in South Korea and the Pacific operation theatre but also in the U.S. mainland,” it said.

Pyongyang must also be keeping a wary eye on the northern border, where China is supposed to have sent several army divisions.

So this is either when Kim Jong-Un ramps up the bluster some more before making a few concessions and wringing some more aid out of the West, or when he does something crazy even for him.

THAT’S AN UNDERSTATEMENT: United Airlines’ public relations disaster.

So how could United have handled the situation better?

John Bailey is a specialist in crisis communications and has handled public relations for many of the aviation industry’s biggest players, including Malaysia Airlines following the disappearance of MH370.

“Any airline which allows its employees the discretion to take this kind of heavy-handed action against a paying customer is asking for trouble,” he says.

“Every other passenger on that aircraft was a potential citizen journalist. What’s astonishing is that United responded so poorly to an absolutely predictable reputational risk.

“But businesses generally are struggling to adapt to the new communications landscape. Research suggests that it takes companies an average of 21 hours to issue meaningful external communications in a crisis situation, leaving them open to ‘trial by Twitter’.”

The only way the situation could have been made worse is if United CEO Oscar Munoz had lawyered up and defended his company’s actions, instead of defending his company’s customers — which is exactly what he did.

United is in trouble, and Munoz doesn’t seem to understand that.

NEWS YOU CAN USE: These Cities Have the Cheapest Beer in the World.

QUESTION ASKED: What Is Promiscuity’s Effect on Evolution?

21ST CENTURY BLACKMAIL: Revenge porn website demanding money to take down victims’ photos.

I FORGOT TO GET HIM SOMETHING: The Tradition of Buddha’s Birthday.

EDUCATION REFORM: Hungary’s president signs law that could oust Soros-founded college.

RESET: Rex Tillerson issues stern warning to nations that ‘commit crimes against the innocents’ during G7 summit.

Tillerson, meanwhile, used meetings Monday with foreign ministers from the Group of 7 industrialized economies, known as the G7, to try to persuade them to forge a unified response to the situation in Syria. Russia was kicked out of G7, formerly known as the G8, in 2014, following its controversial annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea region and assistance for pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine.

After meeting with Tillerson, British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson said the group was discussing possible sanctions against Russian backers of President Bashar Assad — as part of an effort to push the Kremlin to abandon its support of the Syrian strongman — as well as against Syrian officials.

On Tuesday morning, Tillerson will meet again with various foreign government officials about Syria, including many from Arab nations, before traveling to Moscow to sit down with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

They have a lot to talk about.

ROGER L. SIMON: “Just got off NewsmaxTV with Kurt Schlichter and Kurt and I agreed on one thing: if Trump has a strategy going forward on Syria, he shouldn’t tell anyone, even though the media is constantly demanding it. Trump’s policy of not revealing his plans is a good thing. Surprise wins.”

Plus Roger’s take on the “chaotic” White House over at Hot Mic.

A BILLION HERE AND A BILLION THERE, AND PRETTY SOON YOU’RE TALKING REAL MONEY: Pentagon seeks at least 5 pct savings on Lockheed F-35 jet.

The Pentagon, under the direction of Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis, has been exploring how to cut the costs of its most expensive weapons program.

The deal for last year’s annual purchase contract, struck this February, put the standard takeoff and landing version of the jet at the lowest price ever, $94.6 million, a 7.3 percent reduction from the previous annual purchase price of $102 million.

The current negotiations are for a batch of about 130 planes. The talks could shave 5-7 percent, or $660 million, from the approximately 100 standard takeoff and landing “A-model” jets for the U.S. Air Force and the U.S. allies, the people said.

The F-35 comes in three configurations: the A-model; the B-model, which can handle short take-offs and vertical landings for the Marine Corps and the British navy; and the carrier-variant F-35C jets.

The number and type of jets in the deal as well as the timing for an agreement have not been finalized, the people said. They spoke on condition of anonymity because the talks are private.

The talks may be private, but the “people familiar with the talks” who spoke to Reuters went just public enough to put more pressure on Lockheed-Martin.

QUESTION ASKED (BY REUTERS): Oil surplus or scarcity? Shale makes it even harder to predict.

I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that since we have all this shale and we keep getting more efficient at extracting it, that the answer “surplus” and it isn’t hard to predict at all.

DEVELOPING: Feds Patrolling Churches to Catch Gun Shop Suspect Who Penned Anti-Trump Manifesto.

This past Tuesday, Jakubowski allegedly broke into the Armageddon Supplies gun shop in Janesville and stole about 16 high-end firearms, ABC News reported. Thirty minutes later, a car belonging to the suspect was found engulfed in flames near the shop.

Among other weapons, the suspect reportedly stole at least two assault rifles, several high-end handguns, and perhaps even silencers, which the shop advertises on its Facebook page.

Police said Jakubowski could be seen on surveillance video, appearing to steal the weapons from the shop. Authorities said they believe the suspect had a bulletproof vest and helmet.

Sheriff Spoden also reported that police found a 161-page manifesto allegedly written by the suspect which had been sent to President Trump Tuesday at the White House.

Full story and updates at the link.

SCENES FROM RAHM EMANUEL’S CHICAGO: Judge shot to death in Chicago, manhunt on for suspect.

ENTITLEMENTS: New York Becomes Only State to Offer Free Four-Year College.

To paraphrase P.J. O’Rourke: If you think college is expensive now, wait’ll it’s free.

GUNS OF AUGUST, VOL. 2: The Balkans Will Be America and Russia’s Next (Virtual) Battlefield.

Russia has meddled extensively in Europe, and Moscow’s attitude toward the United States has become “explicitly belligerent.” That said, Putin has limited opportunities for further provoking the West. That makes the Balkans a more likely target for Russian interference.

Ukraine is an active and debilitating conflict, but it is, in some ways, a frozen one. Putin has failed to live up to his obligations under the Minsk Agreement, and there is scant prospect that the 2015 deal, often called Minsk II, will bring peace. Certainly it doesn’t preclude more war.

At present, however, Minsk II is all that is on the table. Meanwhile, the United States and the Europeans have clearly signaled that, while the sanctions on Russia tied to implementation of the agreement will be reviewed periodically, the near-term prospects for sanctions relief are nil.

At the same time, U.S. officials have signaled continuing support for Ukraine. In February, Trump told a prominent Ukrainian parliamentarian that the United States wouldn’t push for lifting sanctions anytime soon. Only a week later, Trump included a statement of support for Ukraine in a letter to the Lithuanian president. More recently, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has made similar pledges. A recent survey of experts concluded that, “two months into his presidency . . . the Trump administration [is] talking tough and taking diplomatic positions akin to those of his predecessor Barack Obama.”

These developments leave little space for the Kremlin to ratchet up its antics in Ukraine without further antagonizing both the Europeans and the Americans.

Read the whole thing, and remember that even the New York Times seems to have (quietly) dropped the Trump-is-Putin’s-stooge meme.

SWEET JUSTICE: Hillary Clinton is “not going away,” but Juanita Broaddrick just had a bigger weekend on Twitter than Madam not-President.

KNOWN WOLF: Westminster Terror Killer Was Public Contact Point for Extremist UK Mosque, Friend of Suicide Bomber.

Yet we may never know his real motive.

CYBERFRAUD: Amazon’s Third-Party Sellers Hit By Hackers.

Hackers are targeting the growing population of third-party sellers on Amazon.com Inc., AMZN 1.35% using stolen credentials to post fake deals and steal cash.

In recent weeks, attackers have changed the bank-deposit information on Amazon accounts of active sellers to steal tens of thousands of dollars from each, according to several sellers and advisers. Attackers also have hacked into the Amazon accounts of sellers who haven’t used them recently to post nonexistent merchandise for sale at steep discounts in an attempt to pocket the cash, those people say.

The fraud stems largely from email and password credentials stolen from previously hacked accounts and then sold on what’s dubbed the “dark web,” a network of anonymous internet servers where hackers communicate and trade illicit information. Such hacks previously have favored sites such as PayPal Inc. and eBay Inc., but Amazon recently has become a target of choice, according to cybersecurity experts.

“Hacking Amazon is becoming…increasingly a big deal,” said Juozas Kaziukėnas, chief executive of Marketplace Pulse, a business-intelligence firm focused on e-commerce. “The value to be gained is bigger as Amazon grows.”

It isn’t just hackers racking up fraudulent sales on third-party accounts — there are also fraudulent third-party sellers.

I got hit by one last week, in which an item I purchased was delivered to Waterbury, CT. The seller didn’t respond to my request for a refund or a new delivery, so Amazon refunded my money. But as it turned out, the seller been doing this to their customers for a full year — taking the money and, apparently, delivering the merchandize to themselves.

Amazon dealt with the year-old situation only after the fact, and even then it required a 15-minute phone call on my part. That’s because Amazon’s website doesn’t offer customers the options necessary to report fraudulent sellers and issue a refund. Wider reporting options for legitimate customers would go a long way to help Amazon detect fraudulent sellers more quickly.

The company has a serious problem on its hands, but it isn’t clear that they’re taking it seriously enough.

THE ART OF THE DEAL: China, South Korea discuss more sanctions on North Korea amid talk of Trump action.

The possibility of U.S. military action against North Korea in response to such tests gained traction following last week’s strikes against Syria. Previously, Washington has leaned toward sanctions and pressure to deter North Korea, but comments from U.S. President Donald Trump’s top aides at the weekend suggest that position may be hardening.

However, South Korea’s chief nuclear envoy Kim Hong-kyun said there was no mention of any military option in his talks with China’s Special Representative for Korean Peninsula Affairs, Wu Dawei. The two also did not discuss any possible strike against the North by the Trump administration, he said.

“Both sides agreed that despite the international community’s warnings, if North Korea makes strategic provocations such as a nuclear test or an ICBM launch, there should be strong additional measures in accordance with U.N. security council resolutions,” Kim told reporters.

Kim added the two sides agreed “an even stronger U.N. resolution” will have to be adopted in the event of additional weapons test by North Korea.

They didn’t have to talk about a possible U.S. strike on North Korea; after the cruise missile strike on that Syrian airfield last week, the threat of it is simply there.

And SecState Rex Tillerson told CBS News yesterday, “I think even China is beginning to recognize that this presents a threat to even China’s interests.”

Indeed. China did an about-face on North Korea last year, co-authoring new U.N. sanctions after yet another Nork nuclear test. Enforcement is believed to have been spotty, but with today’s news it looks increasingly like Beijing is looking for a graceful (or at least not too ungraceful) way out of its commitment to Pyongyang.

WHITEWASHING HISTORY: Harvard Looks to Boot ‘Puritans’ from School Song.

Maybe in a hundred years, Progressives will be seen as the oppressive religious fanatics they really are.

POLL: Americans Conflicted on Syria Strikes, Trump Authority.