RUSSIA: A Land Power Hungry for the Sea.

From the perspective of the United States and its allies, the current status of the Russian navy offers both comfort and consternation. On the plus side for the West, irrespective of how much money Russia throws at its navy, no serious analyst thinks that the Russian navy can contend for control of the world’s oceans. This is eminently logical because the Russian fascination with the sea does not rest on economic necessity. Moscow never had, and still today does not have, an economy that is dependent on global trade, much less one that demands control of the seas. In addition, Russia’s stark inability to build large ships (think, aircraft carriers) ties its hands in any attempt at blue water sea control and power projection. Plus, it goes unsaid that the Russian economy is always at risk. Continued stagnation in Russian GDP growth probably is the death knell of expanding its navy.

Nonetheless, Putin’s navy continues to perform the missions outlined by Peter the Great, which should begin to offer a stew of comfort mixed with consternation. First, defense of the homeland. The Russian navy’s principal focus is on real estate close to the Russian border. Most of its operations and exercises are in waters adjacent to Russia. Think of it as high firepower potential but limited range. This, however, is comforting only if you are not a NATO member in Eastern Europe near the Russian border. Russia’s resumed deployment of ballistic missile submarines in the Atlantic could be unnerving, but is more readily construed as defense of the homeland, since these submarines, more than ever, will constitute Russia’s second strike – that is, deterrent — capability. Tsar Peter’s secondary consideration – gaining international diplomatic respect and recognition – continues to be supported by Russian Navy port visits and exercises around the world. In recent months, Russian ships have visited Namibia, the Philippines, South Africa, and the Seychelles and also conducted fleet exercises with the Indonesian and Chinese navies. While Putin has lost no ground to Peter the Great, this activity need not keep us awake at night.

Indeed. The old Soviet surface fleet was impressive on paper, but was a huge expense for a country which could ill-afford it while providing zero benefit to the Soviet economy. Its buildup and maintenance helped to bankrupt the U.S.S.R., but the Kremlin was blindly determined to have a fleet to match Western seapower.

Russia’s geopolitical position today is no different that the U.S.S.R.’s — only weaker, and even less able to maintain a power-projecting, blue water surface fleet.

Putin, the former KGB officer, knows all this, and sees himself more in the mold of Peter the Great than the failed Soviet leadership.

So, no — no sleep lost over the Russian Navy.

HOARDERS AND WRECKERS: General Motors Quits Venezuela After Officials Seize Plant.

The seizure, in the country’s industrial hub of Valencia, comes amid a deepening economic and political crisis that has sparked weeks of deadly street protests.

General Motors Venezolana, GM’s local subsidiary, said it “strongly rejects the arbitrary measures taken by the authorities and will vigorously take all legal actions, within and outside of Venezuela, to defend its rights.”

The auto giant did not provide any details about its plant being seized, other than saying it “was unexpectedly taken by authorities, preventing normal operations.” It said other assets, “such as vehicles,” had also been stripped from the site.

“Unexpectedly,” GM? Really?

REPORT: FBI Used Dodgy Dossier to Justify FISA Warrant on Carter Page.

Much about FISA is dodgy.

REALLY? Georgia’s Progressive Renaissance.

Nevertheless, it’s not just Democratic spin to say that a remarkable political transformation is happening in Georgia’s 6th District: an affluent, highly educated suburb of Atlanta. Nearly overnight, progressive organizing has become the center of social life for thousands of previously disengaged people in the area. Whether or not the movement is enough to swing this election, Republicans may never again be able to win local offices here without a fight. And the intense activity in the 6th District is a sign of how the anti-Trump resistance is building a new, locally rooted progressive infrastructure nationwide.

It’s important to point out that nothing about Tuesday night was a victory for Trump, even if Press Secretary Sean Spicer was spinning it on Wednesday as a loss for Democrats. Before Trump’s presidency, the seat had long been safely Republican; now–Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price won it by 23 points just this past November. Ossoff has been able to mount a credible run because of widespread revulsion towards Trump.

That seems like an awful lot to pin on one southern congressional district in a one-off special election, after losing Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin in their entireties in the recent national election.

CRIMINAL REGIME: Russian Journalist, Putin Critic Dies After Severe Beating.

Nikolai Andrushchenko, a 73-year-old co-founder of the weekly newspaper Novy Petersburg, had been unconscious since he was attacked on March 9.

Andrushchenko’s colleagues and his lawyer say he underwent brain surgery after the attack and initially had been connected to a ventilator, but later was able to breathe on his own.

However, they said he never regained consciousness and died on April 19.

His attackers have not been found.

Check the dark corners of the Kremlin.

BEYOND TRUMP… Nothingness?

YOU DON’T SAY: Blue States May Be Green, But They Have Very Pricey Energy.

Someone living in one of least “green” states paid less for energy than the national average or the greener states, spending 9.89 cents per kilowatt-hour and $2.29 per gallon of gasoline.

Expensive power and gasoline disproportionately hurts poorer families and other lower-income groups since the poor tend to spend a higher proportion of their incomes on “basic needs” like power.

The average Americans’ power bill rose nearly 11 percent since former President Barack Obama took office, according to an analysis of government data previously published by TheDCNF.

When essential goods like electricity or gasoline becomes more expensive, the cost of producing goods and services that use electricity increases, effectively raising the price of almost everything. The higher prices are ultimately paid for by consumers, not industries.

Well, yes. But green energy makes those who can easily afford it feel better about themselves for “saving the planet” on the backs of those who can least afford it.

GOOD MORNING: Start it off right with Liz Sheld’s Morning Brief.

REMAIN CALM. ALL IS WELL. I Don’t Mean to Alarm You, But America is Being Overrun by Horny Alligators.

THE TRAIN HAS REACHED ITS FINAL DESTINATION: Turkey Opposition Party Seeks to Annul Referendum Vote.

Speaking to The Wall Street Journal, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the chairman of the opposition Republican People’s Party, or CHP for its Turkish initials, said the decision by the Supreme Election Board, a governmental body composed of senior judges, cast a shadow over the entire voting process and made a sham of its impartiality.

“I don’t have any trust” in Turkey’s judiciary or the YSK, said Mr. Kilicdaroglu, using the board’s Turkish initials, in an interview at his parliamentary office. “They see themselves as representatives of the [presidency] and not representatives of the judiciary.”

President Erdogan and his supporters have hailed the unofficial results announced late Sunday as a win that expressed the will of the people. In the referendum, voters were asked to approve a constitutional amendment to centralize governing powers in the president’s office and radically alter Turkey’s democracy.

CHP’s application for annulment of the vote cited a number of irregularities during both the voting and counting processes for the April 16 referendum. But its focus was centrally on the YSK decision concerning the ballots without a seal.

Good luck trying to get an honest score. Erdogan owns the bat, the ball, everybody’s gloves, the umps, and now the entire stadium.

QUESTION ASKED: Is Donald Trump’s Unpredictability an Advantage in Handling North Korea?

“Strategic ambiguity” doesn’t leave any mystery about where you stand, but rather about what you might do.

CHANGE: Oversight Chairman Chaffetz Won’t Run to Keep Seat in 2018. “He might challenge a Romney son for governor, while McMullin could vie for his seat.”

DAVID DRUCKER: How Ryan’s super PAC stopped an Ossoff upset.

“If we had waited another couple of weeks, it would have been too late,” said Corry Bliss, executive director of Congressional Leadership Fund, in an interview in which he shared the super PAC’s strategy.

On March 24, strategists with CLF reviewed results from a fresh opinion poll the group conducted in Georgia’s 6th district. They were concerned by what they saw.

Reliable Republican voters in this affluent enclave were tuning out, turned off by their party’s candidates, who were bickering among themselves as they scrambled for a spot in the presumed runoff.

Ossoff, boosted by a combination of President Trump’s middling approval ratings, the collapse of the GOP healthcare bill, and millions of dollars of in unchallenged advertising on local television, was at 42.4 percent “and gaining” momentum.

Bliss said that CLF would have preferred to husband its resources for what it presumes could be a tough midterm election, as is often the case for the party that holds the White House. Instead, the group budgeted more than $3 million, since spent, on advertising and field operations, for a rescue mission. The National Republican Congressional Committee also joined the fray.

Win or lose the runoff, that might just be Mission Accomplished for Ossoff.

NEVER TELL ME THE ODDS: Can Paul Ryan beat history and keep the House?

CNN HARDEST HIT: Malaysia Airlines to track planes with satellites.

Smart safety move, but how will CNN ever fill the empty hours?

TWITCHY: Auburn takes Berkeley to school as police unmask anti-fascists outside Richard Spencer speech.

Auburn probably doesn’t bother with symbolic arrests, either.

ONE WAS CLUTCHING A DRAFT COPY OF BERNIE SANDERS’ ECONOMIC PLAN: Egypt unearths 8 mummies in 3,500-year-old tombs.

SHOT: Despite talk of a military strike, Trump’s ‘armada’ actually sailed away from Korea.

CHASER: Trump’s missing ‘armada’ finally heading to Korea — and may stay a while.

Both these headlines are from Washington Post stories, filed just hours apart.

Are you getting the feeling that WaPo was trying to make the Administration look like liars, even if only for a few hours?

HAPPILY EVER AFTER: Researchers Say Couples Who Get Drunk Together Stay Together Longer.

The VodkaWife and I are coming up on our 15th anniversary. Just sayin’.

TRANSPARENCY: Former Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer discusses USAFacts, his “10-K for government”

GeekWire: Your new project is called USAFacts. You’ve described it as a 10-K for government. Can you explain what it is?

Steve Ballmer: USAFacts is an initiative, if you will — which we’ll publish in PDF, we’ve got a nice website, a lot of different things — but it’s an initiative designed to really simplify and give clear focus to what’s going on with our government. How much money do we take in? How much money do we spend? Against what set of goals? And what kind of outcomes does government get? We take a whole new perspective. We innovated in a number of ways. You won’t find anything like it on the web. We innovated in terms of taking a decision-maker focus — being goal-oriented, not program-oriented.

We looked at the Constitution and said, “what’s the mission of government? Let’s break it down by mission and ask how we’re doing.” The 10-K analogy isn’t bad, but unlike a business, it’s about what you achieve for the citizens first and then how you pay for it as opposed to making money, if you will, or making a profit. We are very citizen-oriented, so it’s not just what the government does for citizens overall, but it’s what the government actually does for specific groups of citizens. And so we look at 10 different groups of citizens and we say, “How does what government do impact a variety of different citizen types?” And that’s kind of what we are.

Now if only Washington would look at the Constitution and say, “What’s the mission of government?”

WHAT… WHAT? Boys Punching Girls: Feminism’s Big Win.

BALANCE: China Eases Capital Controls As Dollar Weakens.

This first easing of capital flight measures comes as “China’s leaders and financial markets feel more confident that pressure on the yuan and the country’s foreign exchange reserves has diminished, thanks largely to a pullback in the surging U.S. dollar.” It also comes at a time when increasingly more Chinese companies have complained they are unable to consummate offshore M&A due to the PBOC’s limit on how much capital they can park offshore.

In March the U.S. owner of Dick Clark Productions Inc said that one of its affiliates terminated an agreement to sell assets to Chinese conglomerate Dalian Wanda Group, with Reuters reporting earlier the deal was under pressure amid tight scrutiny by Beijing on outbound deals.

Facilitating Beijing’s decision has been the steep drop in the US Dollar in 2017. As a reminder, the yuan slumped around 6.5% against the USD last year, but has since firmed nearly 1% in 2017, defying many analysts’ expectations of further depreciation, and benefiting from Trump’s recent attempt to talk down the dollar, no matter how hard Mnuchin may try to deny it. Suggesting that Yuan appreciation may just be getting started, a Reuters poll earlier this month indicated investors likely increased their bullish bets on the yuan to the most since July 2015.

China had reportedly dug deep into its multi-trillion dollar foreign reserves to keep the yuan propped up.

CHANGEMENT: Le Pen Vows to Quit the EU, End Mass-Migration.

Defending her campaign promise to take France out of the European Union, Le Pen said, “France has the right to regain its national sovereignty, its freedom to decide for itself.”

Ahead of Sunday’s vote, most polls show Le Pen and centrist Emmanuel Macron running neck-and-neck with each candidate securing between 22 and 24 percent of the votes. Meanwhile, conservative François Fillon and communist Jean-Luc Mélenchon have consolidated their positions and could cross the 20-percent mark.

According to French election rules, if no candidate manages to get 50 percent of the votes in the first round, which is most likely this time, the top two candidates face each other in a second run-off. Le Pen and the centrist Macron are expected to make it to the second round of the presidential election scheduled for May 7.

This doesn’t seem like the year for centrists.

BANNED AT SEA: Venezuela’s crude-stained oil tankers.

In the scorching heat of the Caribbean Sea, workers in scuba suits scrub crude oil by hand from the hull of the Caspian Galaxy, a tanker so filthy it can’t set sail in international waters.

The vessel is among many that are constantly contaminated at two major export terminals where they load crude from Venezuela’s state-run oil company, PDVSA. The water here has an oily sheen from leaks in the rusty pipelines under the surface.

That means the tankers have to be cleaned before traveling to many foreign ports, which won’t admit crude-stained ships for fear of environmental damage to their harbors, port facilities or other vessels.

The laborious hand-cleaning operation is one of many causes of chronic delays for dozens of tankers that deliver Venezuela’s principle export to customers worldwide, according to three executives of the state-run firm, eight employees of maritime firms that contract with PDVSA and Thomson Reuters vessel-tracking data. Other reasons include delayed repairs and impoundments by service providers that are owed money by cash-strapped PDVSA.

There is absolutely nothing socialism doesn’t leave worse than it found, including the very oil tankers which (barely) keep Venezuela’s socialist regime afloat.

REPORT: Fox Is Preparing to Cut Ties With Bill O’Reilly.

A final resolution on the fate of Mr. O’Reilly, host of the “The O’Reilly Factor,” could come as early as the next several days, the people said.

21st Century Fox, which will hold a board meeting Thursday, hasn’t finalized an exit agreement with Mr. O’Reilly, the people close to the situation said.

Since an April 1 article in the New York Times detailing $13 million in settlements paid to five women who worked on or appeared on Mr. O’Reilly’s program, pressure has been growing on Fox News, both internally and from activists, to remove him.

Mr. O’Reilly has denied any wrongdoing, saying he paid settlements to “put to rest any controversies to spare my children.”

On Tuesday, an attorney for Mr. O’Reilly said the host has “been subjected to a brutal campaign of character assassination that is unprecedented in post-McCarthyist America” and added that he has “evidence that the smear campaign is being orchestrated by far-left organizations bent on destroying O’Reilly and Fox News for political and financial reasons.”