BUT FOR WHOM? Pentagon Says War Against North Korea Would Be ‘Catastrophic.’

Even a so-called surgical strike aimed at the North’s partially hidden nuclear and missile force is unlikely to destroy the arsenal or stop its leader, Kim Jong Un, from swiftly retaliating with long-range artillery that could kill stunning numbers in South Korea within minutes.

An all-out conflict could then ensue. And while Trump’s Pentagon chief, Jim Mattis, says the U.S. would prevail, he believes it would be “a catastrophic war.”

North Korea’s position has been allowed to evolve unimpeded over three decades and three Administrations. Pyongyang can use its nuclear capability — their own arsenal and the threat of sales to unsavory types — to blackmail the West into providing food and goods. Meanwhile, Pyongyang has its artillery just north of Seoul to hold South Korean civilians hostage against American action. They’ve got us by the …this… and by the …that.

That’s an outsized position for a small and impoverished nation ruled by an apparent sociopath.

And Beijing no doubt delights in having such an inexpensive ally creating such an expensive headache for their rivals here in the West.

There were never any easy outs with the Norks, and at this late stage there aren’t even any left which are merely ugly.

TRUMP PREPARES TO MEET PUTIN, THE TRAVEL BAN STAYS, AND THE SNUB THAT WASN’T: All that and more in Liz Sheld’s morning brief.

A PROMISE OR A THREAT? Republicans are starting to admit they may have to work with Democrats on healthcare.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell on Thursday said during an event in Kentucky that if GOP senators fail to reach an agreement on a bill that can get 50 votes in the chamber, they would have to work with the other party on a way to stabilize the Obamacare insurance markets.

“If my side is unable to agree on an adequate replacement, then some kind of action with regard to the private health insurance market must occur,” McConnell said.

McConnell pointed to increasing premiums in the individual insurance marketplaces as the reason Republicans would have to reach across the aisle.

This sounds to me like making your E.R. doc take advice from the madman who slipped a mystery poison into your drink.

If you thought RyanMcConnellTrumpCare was just ObamaCare Lite, wait until you see RyanMcConnellTrumpSchumerCare.

ENERGY: Renewable energy surpasses nuclear power — for now.

Utility-scale wind and solar power have been on the rise in the U.S., and a wet year in the West has fueled spikes in hydroelectric power. All three sources of renewable power have broken generation records this year, according to the Energy Department.

Record rainfall and snowpack in California contributed to a 14 percent increase in hydro power. Between March 2016 and March 2017, wind power increased by 16 percent and solar power increased by 65 percent.

But dominance of renewable sources over nuclear is fickle, for the time being.

Nuclear power plants are often taken offline during the spring months for maintenance. The Energy Department expects that monthly nuclear generation will again surpass renewable resources this summer, and that nuclear power plants will generate more energy than renewables for the year.

All I’m asking for is a standardized design for small thorium reactors which can be mass-produced and installed wherever plentiful and safe zero-carbon energy is wanted.

INCITEMENT TO VIOLENCE: Hamas-Linked Women’s March Organizer Calls for ‘Jihad’ Against Trump.

TRIGGERED: Police arrest man for allegedly threatening Sen. Flake’s staff.

Law enforcement officials arrested a man Thursday who allegedly made threatening comments toward Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake’s staff that referenced the shooting of House Majority Whip Steve Scalise.

The Pima County Sheriff’s office confirmed that Mark Prichard, 59, was arrested on Thursday at Flake’s Tucson office.

According to an aide to Flake, Prichard told a staffer:

“You know how liberals are going to solve the Republican problem? … They are going to get better aim. That last guy tried, but he needed better aim. We will get better aim.”

Heads up.

VIRTUE SIGNALING: Many States Praised For Defying Voter Data Request Aren’t Doing That At All.

NOW THAT’S WHAT I CALL PRIME: Amazon expands its wine lineup with three semi-exclusive bottles.

MARK PENN AND ANDREW STEIN: Back to the Center, Democrats.

In the early 1990s, the Democrats relied on identity politics, promoted equality of outcomes instead of equality of opportunity and looked to find a government solution for every problem. After years of leftward drift by the Democrats culminated in Republican control of the House under Speaker Newt Gingrich, President Bill Clinton moved the party back to the center in 1995 by supporting a balanced budget, welfare reform, a crime bill that called for providing 100,000 new police officers and a step-by-step approach to broadening health care. Mr. Clinton won a resounding re-election victory in 1996 and Democrats were back.

But the last few years of the Obama administration and the 2016 primary season once again created a rush to the left. Identity politics, class warfare and big government all made comebacks. Candidates inspired by Senator Bernie Sanders, Senator Elizabeth Warren and a host of well-funded groups have embraced sharply leftist ideas. But the results at the voting booth have been anything but positive: Democrats lost over 1,000 legislative seats across the country and control of both houses of Congress during the Obama years. And in special elections for Congress this year, they failed to take back any seats held by Republicans.

Central to the Democrats’ diminishment has been their loss of support among working-class voters, who feel abandoned by the party’s shift away from moderate positions on trade and immigration, from backing police and tough anti-crime measures, from trying to restore manufacturing jobs. They saw the party being mired too often in political correctness, transgender bathroom issues and policies offering more help to undocumented immigrants than to the heartland.

There currently doesn’t seem to be much inclination among the party faithful to move back towards the center, but a few more losses might help shake off the stupor. And if Democrats do pick back up the mantle of the DLC, that would be the final repudiation of Barack Obama’s legacy.

STEPHEN KRUISER: There Was No Dissing.

CHANGE: The Gig Economy Is a Boon for Boomer Retirees.

WELL, GOOD: Russia hits Islamic State in Syria with advanced cruise missiles.

NEWS YOU CAN USE: Top 5 Pleasant Surprises Lurking on Netflix Right Now.

I’m going to give Max Rose a try tonight — Jerry Lewis was often underrated as a dramatic actor, and I can’t remember the last time he starred in anything at all.

BRITAIN GOT TIRED OF ALL THE WINNING: Winning is banned at more than half of primary school sports days.

Modern sport and the cultural aspects it both requires and nurtures — clear and binding rules, fair play, gentlemanly conduct from winners and losers — all trace their roots to England.

Giving up sport means giving up much of what made England English.

THE MYSTERY OF MELANIA: The first foreign-born supermodel to occupy the White House has much in common with Europe’s first supermodel, Emma Hamilton.

Tracy Quan:

Emma’s fame is due, in part, to a seven-year relationship with admiral Horatio Nelson, who died after winning the Battle of Trafalgar in 1805. But Emma was already a celebrity when she met Nelson.

Ten years before she became Lady Hamilton, Emma Hart was discovered by the British painter George Romney, who depicted her as Circe, St. Cecilia, and Shakespeare’s Miranda. On rare occasions, she appeared as herself. Together they produced more than 60 paintings, attracting other painters such as Joshua Reynolds, Elisabeth Louise Vigée Le Brun (famous for her portrait of Marie-Antoinette), and Angelica Kauffman. Romney missed her terribly when she left London for Naples.

More than a new face for painters of the 1780s, she was a new kind of persona, never a passive model, something of a gossip-magnet. Indeed, she was the supermodel prototype — harbinger of Kate Moss, Amber Valleta, and Melania Knauss.

In Italy, Emma shared a household with two men: her husband Sir William Hamilton and her lover Admiral Nelson. After Hamilton’s death, Emma lived with Nelson as his unofficial wife and conceived their daughter Horatia. Biographers have honored her with titles like England’s Mistress (2006) and Patriotic Lady (1936) by Marjorie Bowen, the genre novelist whose publishing debut turned young Graham Greene into an aspiring writer.

Both Melania and Emma have changed our idea of what’s possible for a woman in public life.

Fascinating history, and well worth your time.

CHANGE IT BACK: Missouri Republicans Lower St. Louis Minimum Wage From $10 To $7.70.

After St. Louis leaders raised the wage floor for workers within city limits, the state GOP recently passed what’s known as a statewide “preemption” law, forbidding localities from taking such matters into their own hands. On Friday, Missouri Gov. Eric Greitens (R) said he would let the law go into effect, thereby barring cities and counties from setting a minimum wage higher than the state level.

For low-wage earners in St. Louis itself, the new law will have a startling consequence: It will actually push the minimum wage back down, from the city-approved $10 per hour to the state-approved $7.70. The downgrade is slated to take effect on Aug. 28.

For someone earning the bare minimum, that’s a potential cut of 23 percent.

For someone who couldn’t get hired at $10, that’s a raise of $7.70.

On the other hand, I’m not so sure Jefferson City should be overruling St. Louis’s bad decisions, which could be used as a powerful lesson in what not to do.

BREAKING: Possible Terror Attack Targets Police Near Barcelona.

IT ISN’T JUST YOU: Maybe it’s just me, but whenever I see “news” designed to make Obama’s foreign policy look competent and the Trump administration’s look dumb, I immediately suspect that Ben Rhodes and the Obama White House’s media echo chamber are cranking into action.

FAKE FAKE NEWS: CNN’s Jim Acosta gets fact about intelligence community’s Russia assessment wrong, calls it ‘fake news.’

IS THERE ANYTHING HE CAN’T DO? Variety Blames Bad Box Office Results on… Trump.

Anything is easier than admitting the truth.

HMM: FBI probe of Bernie Sanders’ wife based on ‘facts and figures,’ Vermont GOP official says.

The FBI is looking at allegations Jane Sanders fraudulently obtained a loan to purchase 33 acres of land for the expansion of Burlington College in 2010.

Brady Toensing, who also chaired President Donald Trump’s campaign in Vermont, told “Tucker Carlson Tonight” that Jane Sanders, the school’s president at the time, had sought a $6.5 million bank loan to buy the property from the Roman Catholic Diocese of Burlington.

“In order to get those loans, she had to confirm guaranteed donations of $2.6 million,” Toensing alleged. “Of that $2.6 million, the school was only able to collect about 25 percent … and of the confirmed donations, three of the donors have come forward to say that the school overstated their pledge amounts.”

Sanders, the college’s president at the time, left her post the following year and the college ceased operations this past May.

The kicker:

“If you look at who was harmed by this whole financial debacle, the Catholic Church lost almost $2 million, the taxpayers of Vermont lost almost $150,000, the bank lost untold amounts of money and the school went bankrupt,” he said. “But [Jane and Bernie Sanders], they were not financially harmed.”

The nomenklatura never are, comrade.

LITTLE JIHADIS: ISIS Video Shows French, Russian Kids Beheading Prisoners.

GOOD: As Trump Visits, U.S. Agrees to Sell Missile Defense to Poland.

Trump’s visit also strengthened Poland’s defense. Wednesday night, the U.S. agreed to sell Patriot missile defense systems to Poland in a memorandum, Poland’s Defense Minister Antoni Macierewicz said.

“A memorandum was signed tonight that the U.S. government has agreed to sell Poland Patriot missiles in the most modern configuration,” Macierewicz said in a news conference broadcast on public television Thursday morning.

“I am glad that I can pass on this information on the day of President’s Trump visit to Warsaw,” Macierewicz added.

President Obama was caught off mic promising Vladimir Putin “more flexibility” on missile defense after his reelection. Trump is delivering Patriot missiles to Poland.

Tell me again who the Kremlin stooge is?

BY THE NUMBERS: How Many Jobs Does ObamaCare Kill?

The ACA includes a penalty on employers that fail to provide “adequate” insurance for full-time workers. Thanks to the ACA, hiring the 50th full-time employee effectively costs another $70,000 a year on top of the normal salary and benefits.

Many business owners have described how this penalty prevents them from hiring and has caused them to reduce work hours to below the full-time threshold. ACA supporters dismiss these statements as “mere anecdotes” not corroborated by national sampling and statistical analysis. But did any of them rush out to gather the national samples, especially after Jan. 1, 2016, when the employer penalty took full effect?

If you have to ask…

More:

In partnership with the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, in March 2017 I was able to commission Hanover Research to survey small businesses nationwide regarding their hiring and compensation practices. The result was a sample of 745 small businesses, representing every major industry and together employing almost 50,000 people.

We asked managers (almost evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans) how many people each business employed and whether it offers health insurance. Many businesses, when they do not offer coverage, keep their payrolls just below 50 full-time employees and thereby narrowly escape the ACA’s penalty. This pattern is not visible among businesses that offer coverage.

When we followed up, the businesses employing just fewer than 50 often said the ACA caused them to hire less and cut hours below the full-time threshold. The penalty caused payrolls to shrink or prevented them from growing.

Nationwide, we estimate the ACA-inspired practice of keeping payrolls below 50 has cost roughly 250,000 jobs. This does not count jobs lost when businesses close (we didn’t survey closed businesses) or shrink because of other ACA incentives.

The tally of lost jobs is bound to grow because the penalty itself automatically grows and the IRS is still learning how to enforce it.

tl;dr: Yes, ObamaCare is a jobs killer and it doesn’t save any lives.

Thanks, Obama.

STEVE SCALISE IS BACK IN ICU, CNN IS BACK TO PLAYING THE VICTIM CARD, AND SOUTH PARK IS GOING BACK TO ITS ROOTS: All that and more in Liz Sheld’s morning brief.