Author Archive: Stephen Green

HMM: Davis Warns of Chaotic Brexit If Lawmakers Block U.K. Bill.

Brexit Secretary David Davis warned U.K. lawmakers that if they block a key piece of domestic legislation on Monday, it may lead to a “chaotic” departure from the European Union.

In a statement ahead of the vote, Davis rejected accusations that the government has launched a power grab with its European Union (Withdrawal) Bill, which seeks to copy EU law and enshrine it in domestic legislation. The draft law contains so-called Henry VIII powers that allow ministers to make changes to existing laws, bypassing normal scrutiny by Parliament.

Does Britain want to divorce Brussels, or import its worst features directly to the Cabinet?

JAMES JEFFREY: The Iran Deal Is on Thin Ice, and Rightly So.

A primary problem with the agreement, in Haley’s view, is that it does nothing to curb Iran’s aggressive regional expansionism. This behavior, which profoundly worries every friendly Middle East leader, kicked into high gear just weeks after the JCPOA was signed in 2015. International agreements, particularly concerning weapons of mass destruction, are obviously important in themselves, but their strategic context should not be ignored. For example, while there has been little genuine angst over the Israeli nuclear weapons program, regional and global concern about Iranian nukes has been profound due to its destabilizing regional policies.

The Obama administration’s behavior stoked Iran’s aggressive regional approach. U.S. officials in the previous administration were slippery on the issue of “linkage” between the agreement and Iran’s disruptive regional agenda. At times, such as a speech Vice President Joseph Biden made at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy in April 2015, officials argued that the agreement was simply concerned with nuclear restraints, and Iran’s regional behavior would be dealt with in other ways. But it never was — not in Syria, Yemen, or elsewhere. Rather, the administration’s implicit position appeared best reflected in President Barack Obama’s 2015 interview with the Atlantic, wherein he argued that the long game engendered by the agreement would help return Iran to respectability and calm the region, while also signaling that he was not overly troubled by Iran’s depravations.

He opined that Saudi Arabia had to find a way to “share the neighborhood” with Iran, and that backing U.S. allies in the region too strongly against Iran would only fan the flames of conflict.

But Iran’s behavior is now too dangerous to ignore.

“Now” means “now that it isn’t Obama’s problem anymore.”

GET OUT:

NOT GOOD: New North Korea photos reveal hidden details of missile program.

“This is the North Koreans showing us, or at least portraying, that their solid-fuel missile program is improving at a steady rate,” David Schmerler, research associate at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey’s James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, told CNN.

One photo of Kim reveals a poster on the wall clearly mentioning a missile called “Pukguksong-3,” a potential successor to the previous two versions of the missile which were both solid-fuel, medium-range projectiles.

North Korea’s desire to build solid-fuel missiles is driven by their need for projectiles they can launch quickly and subtly, said Michael Duitsman, also a research associate at the James Martin Center.

“Solid fuel missiles are much faster to deploy … a solid fuel missile is always fueled so all they have to do is drive it to the place they want to launch it,” he said.

“It’s much easier to put into action, much harder to catch before it launches because they’re a lot less in terms of launch preparations that could be done.”

Developing… all too quickly.

HIGHER EDUCATION BUBBLE UPDATE: College Activists March on the Cafeteria: What Do We Want? Hydroponic Cilantro!

College students across the U.S. are making some precise demands of school chefs and dining halls. For a generation animated by a desire to make a difference and raised to believe personal wellness is paramount, a meaningful academic experience begins with minding what you eat.

That’s inspired the University of Houston to spend $6,500 to build two hydroponic grow towers, vertical gardens that use nutrient-rich waters to cultivate cilantro and oregano indoors, without soil. The University of California, Los Angeles has installed aeroponic grow towers that grow plants with just mist. Thyme, butter lettuce and microgreens are flourishing in the breeze on the roof of UCLA’s Bruin Plate dining hall.

“If you’re not eating good things, how do they expect your brain to grow?” said Hannah Logan, a senior at the University of Massachusetts Amherst majoring in sustainable food and farming.

They’ll be happy to roll the cost into your student debt, Hannah.

UH-OH: Hackers Gain Direct Access to US Power Grid Controls.

The latest collection of power grid penetrations went far deeper: Security firm Symantec is warning that a series of recent hacker attacks not only compromised energy companies in the US and Europe but also resulted in the intruders gaining hands-on access to power grid operations—enough control that they could have induced blackouts on American soil at will.

Symantec on Wednesday revealed a new campaign of attacks by a group it is calling Dragonfly 2.0, which it says targeted dozens of energy companies in the spring and summer of this year. In more than 20 cases, Symantec says the hackers successfully gained access to the target companies’ networks. And at a handful of US power firms and at least one company in Turkey—none of which Symantec will name—their forensic analysis found that the hackers obtained what they call operational access: control of the interfaces power company engineers use to send actual commands to equipment like circuit breakers, giving them the ability to stop the flow of electricity into US homes and businesses.

Glenn has been warning Instapundit readers for years that our power grid is vulnerable. Be prepared.

UNEXPECTEDLY: The Inconvenient Truth About Obamacare’s Premium Spiral.

The biggest reason for Obamacare’s rate hikes? Two of its most popular provisions, guaranteed issue and community rating. These are the technical terms for Obamacare’s ban on insurance companies denying coverage or charging people who are sick more.

The McKinsey report found that in Georgia, these mandates added between 44 and 52 percent to premiums. In Ohio, they were responsible for 41 to 50 percent of the hikes — and in Pennsylvania, as much as 62 percent. In Tennessee, guaranteed issue and community rating accounted for between 73 and 76 percent of premium increases.

This shouldn’t come as a surprise. A study by Milliman, a consultancy, in 2013 predicted that Obamacare’s guaranteed issue and community rating rules would sharply increase premiums.

If you’re going to charge younger, healthier people more like older, sicker people, and force insurers to sell “insurance” to people who are already sick, then premiums are going to go WAY up — which many of us warned back in 2009, 2010.

THEN MAYBE THEY SHOULD DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT: China Fears Radioactive Fallout From North Korea Blast.

Chinese government agencies said no radiation has been detected thus far but they will continue to test air, water and soil samples in a network of radiation-monitoring stations that has steadily expanded since 2013 and is due to grow by at least two more stations in the next few months.

The slightest risk of a leak is of huge concern, with more than 100 million people living in China’s three northeastern provinces bordering or near North Korea. The Punggye-ri test site, where the blast took place, is less than 50 miles from China’s border. Nuclear blasts produce radioactive forms of elements such as iodine, exposure to which can cause cancer in humans—or even death in extreme cases.

Sunday’s test shook buildings in Chinese cities near the border and could be felt hundreds of miles away. Some people ran into the streets and posted videos of shaking chandeliers in their apartments. Others have since taken to social media to express alarm.

North Korea wouldn’t still exist if China hadn’t intervened in 1950, and Chinese support has helped keep the virulent Kims in power.

U-G-L-Y: What War With North Korea Would Look Like.

Ground forces along the DMZ, largely South Korean, will be locked in a knife fight. The terrain is rugged, narrow and provides very little room to maneuver. The mobile battlefield we all witnessed in 1991 and 2003 in Iraq will not be possible amidst the rice paddies and mountains of Korea. Massive firepower would rein death on both sides. The confined nature of the terrain, and the North’s ability to infiltrate behind our lines, makes even hand-to-hand combat possible. If the ground fight had to roll north for a decisive resolution, we would need more soldiers — a lot more soldiers. We would be almost certainly be viewed as occupiers, not liberators, in the minds of the North Koreans. We would have to dig them out of their defenses and control their population, and that would take a lot more soldiers.

The “horror” would set in as thousands were killed or wounded. In some estimates, North Korea would inflict 20,000 casualties a day just in Seoul during for the first few days. The herculean effort to limit collateral damage witnessed in our Middle Eastern wars will be impossible to repeat. We will operate within the laws of armed conflict, but significant loss of innocent life would be unavoidable due to the locations North Korea chooses to base or hide its weapons.

We will use cluster weapons that spread bomblets over areas the size of football fields. We will return artillery fire wherever enemy batteries are firing. When optimum for military conditions, we will hit targets in the middle of urban areas; it would be impossible to prevent civilian casualties. To fight effectively, we will have to bomb command facilities in the heart of neighborhoods. We will destroy missiles on mobile launchers even if they are placed in sensitive areas. Our ground forces will pour fire into the enemy without an excessive regard for damage. And, yes, we will bomb targets more widely than in recent decades.

Read the whole thing.

Absent resupply from China — and who knows which way that would go — it’s doubtful North Korea has the logistical wherewithal to fight for more than a week or so. But it would be the most horrific week or so since the last war we fought in Korea.

Related? China’s military practices for ‘surprise attack’ over sea near Korea.

REFUGEE CONTROL: Myanmar laying landmines near Bangladesh border.

Myanmar has been laying landmines across a section of its border with Bangladesh, said two government sources in Dhaka, adding that the purpose may have been to prevent the return of Rohingya Muslims fleeing violence.

Bangladesh will on Wednesday formally lodge a protest against the laying of land mines so close to the border, said the sources, who had direct knowledge of the situation but asked not to be named because of the sensitivity of the matter.

An army crackdown triggered by an attack on Aug. 25 by Rohingya insurgents on Myanmar security forces has led to the killing of at least 400 people and the exodus of nearly 125,000 Rohingya to neighbouring Bangladesh, leading to a major humanitarian crisis.

“They are putting the landmines in their territory along the barbed-wire fence” between a series of border pillars, said one of the sources.

These are the actions taken by the government of the all-but-sainted Aung San Suu Kyi.