Author Archive: Stephen Green

SUSTAINABILITY: Global debt level hits $233 trillion record high in Q3 2017.

It was referring to total debt incurred by the household, government, financial and non-financial corporate sectors.

However, China which has accounted for the lion’s share of new debt in emerging markets, saw the pace of debt accumulation slow; debt rose by two percentage points last year to 294 percent of GDP, compared to an average annual increase of 17 percentage points in the 2012-2016 period.

The IIF warned however, of “heavy emerging market redemptions” noting that over $1.5 trillion of bonds and syndicated loans would be maturing through end-2018. China, Russia, Korea and Brazil had heavy dollar-debt repayment schedule this year, it added.

The good news is that “robust economic growth meant debt-to-GDP ratios were declining.” The bad news is that nearly everybody is sitting on mountains of debt which needs to be refinanced regularly — and rates are going up.

ELI LAKE: What a Soviet Dissident Sees in Iran’s Unrest.

Now would be a good time for Macron and other European leaders to seek new counsel and listen to Natan Sharansky, the former Soviet dissident and Israeli politician. In an interview this week, Sharansky told me Macron’s response to the Iranian unrest reminded him of the appeasement crowd during the Cold War. It was the kind of thinking that led former president Gerald Ford to refuse a meeting with the Soviet author of “The Gulag Archipelago,” Alexander Solzhenitsyn.

“It reminds me of the arguments against Reagan,” Sharansky told me. “All those battles we thought we already won, we have to fight them again.”

For Sharansky, Macron and the other European leaders have gotten the Iran moment backward and once again failed to understand the nature of the Iranian regime with whom they desperately want to deal — just as some in the West were motivated to see the Soviet regime as reasonable.

Macron believes that Western solidarity with Iranians who seek an end to their tyranny will anger the tyrants and lead to war. Engagement with the regime instead will, theoretically, create opportunities for Iranians to gradually open up their society over time.

But what did engagement with Iran actually get us?

Don’t answer that — it’s unseemly to cry over your lunch.

NOTHING TO SEE HERE, MOVE ON: At Least 18 Classified Emails Discovered On Anthony Weiner’s Laptop.

According to conservative-leaning transparency group Judicial Watch, those 798 documents–and the 18 classified emails–were released as part of the FBI’s on-again-off-again-on-again investigation into Hillary Clinton‘s private email server.

Weiner, the disgraced former New York congressman, was served divorce papers by former Clinton confidante Huma Abedin in May of last year.

The new tranche of emails on Weiner’s computer appear to emanate from Abedin’s use of a non-State Department email address located on Clinton’s private server as well as from Abedin’s personal Blackberry.

Let the investigation go where it will.

HMM: China Admits 2016 GDP Was “Miscalculated” After “Routine Verification.”

According to SCMP, China’s economic figures for 2016 were revised lower by 54.2 billion yuan (US$8.34 billion) to 74.36 trillion yuan following a “miscalculation” revealed after a routine verification of the numbers, the National Statistics Bureau said on Friday.

While the amendment was not large enough to affect the earlier reported year-on-year growth rate of 6.7% for the world’s second-largest economy, the bureau said in a statement, the truth is that nobody knows – and certainly nobody can verify – any numbers coming out of China where there already are glaring discrepancies between GDP data reported at the province and national levels.

You can’t trust numbers from Beijing, especially now that growth has slowed but the regime must continue to purchase its own legitimacy.

LATE-STAGE SOCIALISM: Venezuelan criminals have begun using food to recruit children into gangs.

The critical food shortages pummeling Venezuela have started to change the nature of crime in the country, at times increasing what some experts have started to call “hunger crimes” and at other times turning food into a valuable item to be taken by force.

“This is a new phenomenon because it’s something that we never had in this country, crimes committed because of hunger,” said Roberto Briceño León, director of the Caracas-based Venezuelan Observatory for Violence (VOV).

“This type of crime has been increasing, and now we see how criminal groups are starting to steal food, how individuals who before did not steal have now started to steal food,” Briceño added in a telephone interview.

Criminal gangs are also using food to recruit children and teenagers in Venezuela, a country with one of the world’s highest crime rates.

And kudus to El Nuevo Herald’s Antonio Maria Delgado for including this line: “Even though it has the world’s largest proven oil reserves, Venezuela is suffering one of the most severe economic crises of its modern history as a result of the policies imposed by the socialist regimes of Hugo Chávez and his successor, Nicolás Maduro.”

BOOM: Federal Judge Deals HUGE Blow To Fusion GPS In Bank Records Battle.

Judge Richard Leon shot down all four of Fusion’s arguments against the release of 70 records of transactions involving some of its clients as well as journalists and researchers it has paid since Sept. 2015.

Fusion sued its bank, TD Bank, in October, to prevent it from complying with a subpoena issued by the House Intelligence Committee, which has been looking into Fusion’s role in putting together the dossier.

That subpoena, issued by committee chairman Devin Nunes on Oct. 5, prompted Perkins Coie, the law firm that represented the Clinton campaign and DNC, to reveal that it had hired Fusion GPS in April 2016 to investigate Trump.

Fusion, which was founded by three former Wall Street Journal reporters, later hired Christopher Steele, a former British spy with experience in Moscow.

All the “collusion” still seems to be located on the other side.

OUTSOURCING CENSORSHIP: Ve have vays of making you not talk!

So not only is the German government forcing social media companies to block their political opponents under the guise of counteracting online “hate speech”, the people doing the blocking are too dim to spot a parody account. How the Germans can’t see that such a law, in the hands of the wrong party, could be devastating is a mystery. I can only conclude such occurrences have no precedent in their country from which they could draw obvious lessons.

Titanic said on Wednesday its Twitter account had been blocked over the message, which it assumed was a result of a law that came into full force on Jan. 1 that can impose fines of up to 50 million euros ($60 million) on social media sites that fail to remove hate speech promptly.

A lot of people will rightly ask who defines hate speech. What they should be asking is how easy is it to change that definition.

Elasticity in the law — the ability to shut down anybody at will — is the whole point.

ON THE OTHER HAND…: ‘Economists Say’ A Lot Of Things. But They’re Mostly Wrong.

David Harsanyi:

For eight years we were persistently hearing about how “economists say” everything Democrats were doing was great (even when hundreds disagreed). Unsurprisingly, “economists” were wrong about a lot. The rosy predictions set by President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers regarding the “stimulus” weren’t even close to what happened, nor were any other of their forecasts, for that matter.

In 2009, when Democrats ran everything, the administration predicted 4.6 percent growth by 2012. It turned out to be half that. The Congressional Budget Office’s predictions about Obamacare were even less accurate. Once these prophecies were no longer politically valuable — suddenly more art than science– we were offered counterfactuals: Without Obama’s bailouts, everything would have been much worse.

Perhaps the weakest recovery in American history could have been worse; perhaps not. There are thousands of unknowns that can’t be quantified or computed, including human nature. But after decades of using data to help us think about goods and services, jobs and consumption, and our choices, “economists say” is now used to coat liberal policy positions with a veneer of scientific certitude. And since Democrats began successfully aligning economics with social engineering, we’ve stopped seriously talking about the tradeoffs regulations bring.

Getting people to “stop seriously talking” was probably the only way to get many of those scientifically progressive policies in place.

(Classical allusion in the headline.)

YOU COULD TURN THIS ONE UP WAY PAST 11: The Eleven Most Ridiculously PC Moments of 2017.

But this one was new-to-me:

A city councilman was concerned that hosing poop-covered sidewalks might be culturally insensitive.

A Seattle councilman expressed concern that hosing down some filthy sidewalks that smelled of excrement might be insensitive “because it brought back images of the use of hoses against civil-rights activists.”

Before I saw this article, I would have told you that the idea that a poop-mess needs to be cleaned up — and that that clean-up generally involves water — was the least controversial opinion in human history. I would have been wrong.

These are Heinlein’s Crazy Years — we just live in them.

YES. Let Marines Be Marines.

The military must cut waste, eliminate unnecessary paperwork and training that do not improve lethality, and provide additional funding for training (such as flight hours) to hone the warfighters’ combat edge. Marine leaders currently are focused on the wrong things. They need to cut back on Marine Net courses, transgender awareness training, mandatory safety stand downs, sexual assault prevention training, and other unnecessary activities that detract from operations. The Marine Corps must focus more on recruiting individuals who have the moral character to do the right thing—rather than accepting people who have broken moral compasses who require constant supervision and morality training. Recruit training should screen young Marines for character; if recruits do not have it, they should not be allowed to graduate from boot camp or receive a commission.

After making someone a Marine, the Corps must focus on retaining the best individuals and promoting talent. Let Marines be Marines. Don’t discharge them for having too many tattoos. Let them train under tougher conditions and accept higher risks to reflect operations. Marines must be warriors—professional yes, but ready for battle when things go south. Let Marines be investments that continue to grow, not depreciating assets that decrease in value as they come to the end of their contracts. Teach Marines their value and help them protect and add to it.

More than anything else, real Marines want to practice their warfighting skills.

More and better training. Less bureaucratic bullcrap.

CHANGE? Breitbart Owners Debate Ousting Bannon Amid Trump Feud. “Former White House strategist’s longtime benefactors, billionaires Robert Mercer and his daughter Rebekah, are distancing themselves from him.”

More:

They and other Breitbart News Network LLC board members on Thursday were debating whether to oust Mr. Bannon as chairman, with many supportive of the move, according to a person familiar with the exchanges. Among the considerations are Breitbart’s contractual relationships with other entities, including Sirius XM radio, that involve Mr. Bannon.

Staffers at Breitbart, which Mr. Bannon has called his “killing machine,” described a “chaotic” day at the company, with writers—many personally recruited by Mr. Bannon—wondering whether he would last the day.

Asked Thursday whether Breitbart should oust Mr. Bannon, White House press secretary Sarah Sanders said: “I certainly think that it’s something they should look at and consider.”

None other than Matt Drudge hinted at a possible Bannon/Breitbart split yesterday on Twitter.

SCOTT RASMUSSEN: The Ground Is Shifting Under Obamacare.

The repeal of the Obamacare mandate fundamentally changes the political dynamics in the real world far from Washington, DC.

Last year, an estimated 15 million Americans would have dropped out of Obamacare if they could. Now they can. Another 6.5 million paid a fine rather than sign up for coverage. This means that more than 20 million people directly benefit from the repeal of the mandate.

Most of these people would prefer to buy insurance that meets their needs, but the Obamacare mandate did more than say that people had to buy insurance. It said they had to buy a very comprehensive and expensive set of benefits. Especially for young people, it was often far more insurance than they needed and far more costly than they could afford.

The reality is that there is no one-size-fits-all solution to health insurance. Different people have different needs and preferences.

This reality will create a demand for a variety of insurance options to meet a variety of needs. Some people will prefer more comprehensive coverage and higher premiums. Others will opt for less coverage and lower premiums. All will be covered against catastrophic events but day-to-day coverage will vary.

Imagine being able to buy the insurance which best fits your needs. Or to put it another way, tonight we’re going to purchase like it’s 2009.

BILL ROGGIO: A record year for US counterterrorism strikes.

The increased targeting of jihadists in Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia, and Libya provides proof that the Obama administration strategy to defeat terrorist groups in these countries with airpower and limited support to local governments has failed. The US has targeted Shabaab in Yemen since 2007 and Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula since 2009, yet both of these al Qaeda branches maintain a robust insurgency and continue to control territory to this day.

FDD’s Long War Journal tracked airstrikes in Somalia, Yemen, Libya, and Pakistan from publicly available press releases and inquiries with the relevant combatant commands as well as from press reports. Strikes in areas of active hostilities, in which the United States is directly engaged, such as Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan, are not included.

Based 2017 data, the Trump administration appears to be conducting a more muscular version of President Obama’s targeted counterterrorism strategy. The Trump administration has loosened rules of engagement and has restored many decision making authorities to the military. Nearly one year after Trump ramped up the targeting of al Qaeda and the Islamic State, both group maintain potent insurgencies.

Lengthy article, but the usual good stuff from Roggio.

GET OVER IT: Washington’s growing obsession: The 25th Amendment.

The conversation about Trump’s fitness to serve is ongoing — and gaining steam after Trump’s tweet this week taunting the leader of North Korea with my-nuclear-button-is-bigger-than-yours bravado.

“Will someone from his depleted and food starved regime please inform him that I too have a Nuclear Button, but it is a much bigger & more powerful one than his, and my Button works!” the president wrote online Tuesday night.

The tweet resuscitated the conversation about the president’s mental state and the 25th Amendment, which allows for the removal of the president from office if the vice president and a majority of the Cabinet deem him physically or mentally “unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office.”

Trump drives Washington crazy, which they then project back onto him.