Author Archive: Stephen Green

SALENA ZITO: Democrats’ Biggest Liability Wears 4-Inch Heels.

When House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi made history last week for the longest speech delivered on the House floor, she deserved praise for two things: her stamina in the eight-hour talkfest and her ability to do it in 4-inch spike heels.

But politically, she likely did little more than create another attack ad for Republicans to run against Democratic candidates around the country.

Pelosi’s speech, mostly stories about “Dreamers” — the people who were brought to the U.S. illegally as children by their parents and are caught in a political firestorm between both parties — was red meat for the Democratic base. But perorations on behalf of immigrants who are in the country illegally are unlikely to excite the independents, and swing Republicans and centrist Democrats whose votes will determine control of Congress.

Similarly tone-deaf were her warnings last year that the Republican tax-cut bill is the apocalypse. “It is the end of the world,” Pelosi told reporters after the bill passed. “This is Armageddon.”

And calling the $1,000 bonuses that more than 3 million American workers have received over the past few weeks as a result of the bill “crumbs” was also not helpful.

Pelosi has never enjoyed the common touch, as they say, but for the last year or so she’s been more tin-eared than ever.

OIL WARS: Shale Output Hasn’t Grown This Fast Since Oil Was at $100.

The situation is “reminiscent of the first wave of U.S. shale growth,” when a flood of American oil built up a global glut that sent prices crashing over four years ago, said the Paris-based IEA, which advises governments and corporations on energy trends.

Oil prices fell after the report’s release in Europe before recovering somewhat. Brent, the international benchmark was down 0.06% at $62.55 while U.S. prices were down 0.27% at $59.13.

Shale producers “cut costs dramatically” during the nearly three-year-long oil industry downturn, the IEA said. They then took advantage of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries cartel’s decision to cut its own output, which helped prices rise from the low $40s to over $70 a barrel as recently as late last month.

“All the indicators that suggest continued fast growth in the U.S. are in perfect alignment,” the IEA said.

OPEC had a choice between price and market share, and they sacrificed market share to prop up prices. Now they’ll get neither.

COMMUNIST ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION: This City of Oil Rigs Is Collapsing Into the Caspian Sea.

In the middle of the Caspian Sea, some 55 kilometres from the coast of Azerbaijan, sits a city of interconnected oil wells and Soviet-style housing blocks propped up on scuttled ships. According the Guiness Book of World Records, it’s the oldest offshore oil platform in the world, known to the locals as Neft Daşları, or “Oil Rocks” to the Russians.

In 2009, the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR) boasted of extracting a total 170 million tons of oil from the Caspian over their 60-year history. They claimed there was still another 30 million left to go, but even then Oil Rocks was pretty dilapidated. Most of its 300 kilometres of roadway was zoned off and rusting into the sea, while its antiquated oil wells were sporadically killing workers in explosions and fires.

Today it’s just about impossible to get up-to-date info on the place. Oil Rocks doesn’t even appear on Google Maps, and most media reports and photos come from their anniversary celebrations in 2009.

The photos are really quite striking — but not in a good way.

FASTER, PLEASE: Why the Islamic Republic of Iran is Doomed.

Michael Ledeen:

Sunday provided a clear test of the strength of the regime and its supreme leader, Ali Khamenei. The occasion was the anniversary of the 1979 Revolution that overthrew the shah and imposed a theological dictatorship. Khamenei, President Rouhani and their henchmen were eager to demonstrate that the Iranian people actually supported the regime, and that the widespread anti-regime demonstrations of the past month were the marginal consequences of foreign meddling, not genuine passion. Hence the mullahs called for monster rallies to celebrate the 39 years of Islamic Revolution.

It didn’t work.

Turnout was shockingly low, and in fact there were scores of anti-regime demonstrations. Speeches by regime supporters were interrupted, and women brandished hijabs in acts of defiance. A fiasco for the regime.

Read the whole thing.

CHANGE? OPEC Production Steady In January As Venezuela Output Plunges.

According to OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report published on Monday, secondary sources—the ones the cartel uses to monitor compliance and official stats—pegged Venezuela’s crude oil production in January 2018 at 1.600 million bpd, down by 47,300 bpd compared to December 2017. This was the largest monthly decline in oil production among OPEC’s 14 member states. Venezuela, allowed to pump as much as 1.972 million bpd under the deal, surely did not make that cut voluntarily—its economy is collapsing and oil production has been in freefall for months now.

OPEC’s secondary sources’ estimate is lower than last week’s survey by one of those sources—S&P Global Platts—which had estimated that Venezuela’s production dropped to 1.64 million bpd in January.

I can’t imagine that hurting OPEC members aren’t rooting for the continued “success” of Venezuela’s socialist regime.

BLUE WAVE? Corker weighs his options as GOP frets about losing Tennessee. “The two-term senator is being urged to reconsider his retirement amid concerns Republicans could lose his seat in November.”

The two-term Tennessee GOP senator decided to call it quits in September amid an on-again, off-again dispute with President Donald Trump that has eroded his standing with the party’s base. But now a faction of Republicans in Tennessee and Washington are worried that the favorite for the Republican Senate nomination, Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), could lose the general election — and with it the Senate majority.

They want Corker to get back in to hold the seat and preserve waning foreign policy experience in the GOP. And there are signs that he is open to it, despite the steep climb a Republican primary might entail.

“While Corker is listening to the concerns that have been raised, he hasn’t made any commitments,” said the person close to Corker. Corker himself said on Monday he had no comment on the race.

You could also read this as another sign that the GOP Civil War ain’t over yet.

LIZ SHELD’S MORNING BRIEF: BY THE BOOK, Flynn Didn’t Lie to the Feds and Much, Much More. “A letter from Senate Judiciary Chair Grassley (R-IA) and Senator Lindsay Graham (R-SC) to notorious liar and former Obama National Security Advisor Susan Rice is raising some eyebrows. The letter asks liar Rice about a freakish email she wrote to herself mere minutes after President Trump was inaugurated on January 20, 2017. The email to herself memorializes, whitewashes or fabricates, you pick which one, a conversation that took place two weeks before and was previously unknown to the public. Oh yeah, this seems totally kosher.”

ABOUT THAT BLUE WAVE… The collapse of Democrats’ popularity on the much-ballyhooed generic ballot foreshadows tough midterm elections for them in November.

New polling shows that Democrats have lost their recent 15-point lead over Republicans, dropping to only a two-point lead for a critical election they had hoped to paint as a referendum on President Trump and writ large, Republicans.

However, historically speaking, the news is more daunting for Democrats. Compared to where they stood in the 2014 midterm elections, Democrats are actually faring worse at this point than they were then.

In the 2014 midterms, Democrats were ahead on the generic ballot by an impressive eight points most of the year. However their lead eventually vanished, and Republicans ultimately trounced them at the ballot box, retook the U.S. Senate and won a big majority of seats in the House of Representatives.

By comparison, Democrats’ current poll numbers also rate worse than their generic ballot ranking in the 2010 midterms.

If you want to make a difference, as Glenn as been urging lately, step away from the keyboard and volunteer for a local campaign.