NEW YORK, NEW YORK: Without Adams, Should Mamdani Be Worried?
What complicates Cuomo’s path are his own significant weaknesses as a candidate. He is a lackluster campaigner with a thin field operation. The scandals of his administration—nursing home deaths in the pandemic, sexual harassment allegations that drove him from office—are well-remembered. In the primary, he was able to benefit from enormous super PAC spending and the backing of many politicians and labor unions, only to finish a distant second. Though frontrunner Zohran Mamdani has struggled to unify the full Democratic establishment behind him due to his socialist politics, he has far more support than he did in June. Many large labor unions have abandoned Cuomo to coalesce behind him, and enough top Democrats, including Governor Kathy Hochul, have offered endorsements, if Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries have been stubbornly neutral. (Disclosure: In 2018, when I ran for office, Mamdani was my campaign manager.)
What matters more, though, is that Cuomo won’t have such a sizable super PAC behind him and institutional Democrats would rather stay on the sidelines than support him. The city’s wealthiest donors, meanwhile, are mostly keeping their powder dry, waiting to see if Cuomo gains momentum or Mamdani runs away from the rest of the field. There’s also no guarantee all of Adams’ vote heads to Cuomo. There are Adams supporters, Black voters especially, who regularly back Democrats, and could be courted by Mamdani because he is the Democratic nominee. Cuomo, as an independent, is at a significant disadvantage.
Orthodox Jews are another wild card. Adams maintained strong relationships with Orthodox leaders in Brooklyn and Queens. These voters despise Mamdani, who is pro-Palestine, but they are largely wary of Cuomo because he was the governor who imposed Covid lockdowns on their neighborhoods. In the primary, they reluctantly supported him, and they may just prefer Sliwa now, since many do vote Republican in general elections. Certain Hasidic leaders, especially in Williamsburg, may even be open to backing Mamdani, since they are both anti-Zionist and they will want to cultivate ties with a Mamdani City Hall.
What will matter, if Mamdani wins, is what margin he finishes with.
Nah. If Mamdani wins, he’ll attempt to govern as though he won by a supermajority. He has big plans, and intends to deliver them to NYC voters, good and hard.
