Author Archive: Stephen Green
June 28, 2018
BLUE ON BLUE: Rural Democrats’ Big Problem In Minnesota: “Nobody Cares About Us.” “City liberals, miners, environmentalists, and union workers make up the Minnesota Democratic coalition. But, like in a lot of the Midwest, it’s getting tougher and tougher to hold together.”
“There’s some things going on in the Democratic Party that divide us,” Medure, who is running for a state legislature seat against a Republican incumbent, acknowledged to a crowd assembled over pulled pork, baked beans, and lemon squares sponsored by the Itasca County Democratic Party. “There’s a lot of friction in the party. We can worry about that when we get there — but we believe in the same things.”
To most people in the crowd, it was immediately clear what Medure was talking about: mining. Here, in and around the state’s long-struggling iron mining region, known as the Iron Range, the tension in the Democratic Party between mining advocates and environmentalists is almost palpable.
The issue, mostly, pits people in Northern Minnesota’s small towns against city environmentalists. And it’s a sign of a broader problem: In Minnesota, tension between urban and rural Democrats has been growing increasingly sharp. Democrats on the Iron Range worry it could cost the party in 2018.
Just enough deplorably irredeemable bitter clingers switched from Obama to Trump in 2016 to put Trump in the White House by a comfortable Electoral College margin. Stories like this one — and there have been many — make it possible or even likely that Trump could improve on that margin in 2020.
DANG: Webb Space Telescope pushed back again, won’t launch until 2021.
The James Webb Space Telescope would be the most complex imaging hardware that NASA has attempted to put into space. It features a large mirror that will be formed by multiple individual segments moving into place and protected by a sunscreen that would also unfold after launch. Webb’s instruments would be sensitive to a region of the infrared that should allow it to image everything from the Universe’s first galaxies to the atmospheres of nearby exoplanets.
But so far, that complexity has driven extensive delays. Early this year, the Government Accountability Office released a report that suggested that further delays were inevitable. And shortly after its release, NASA disclosed that testing of the spacecraft’s unfolding resulted in damage to some of the systems. That set the stage for an independent review board to give the entire project a new look.
The board’s review and NASA’s response were released today. The board paints a picture of significant dysfunction, even as it provides 32 recommendations for minimizing the impact of further problems in the future.
The problems come largely from the work of Northrop Grumman, which is building the spacecraft and its sun shield. Incidents detailed in the report include using a solvent to clean valves without checking with the valve manufacturer; the improper solvent damaged the valves and forced their replacement. In another case, managers relied on the word of a single technician that test wiring was installed properly. As a result, hardware was exposed to excess voltage.
In a final case, fasteners for the sunscreen weren’t tightened sufficiently prior to testing under simulated launch conditions. Over a dozen of them popped loose, several ended up inside the spacecraft body, and two of them still haven’t been definitively located.
Heads should roll.
BLUE STATE BLUES: Yet another sign that San Francisco’s housing market is out of control. “Are San Francisco families earning $117,400 a year really considered low income?”
Yes:
Every year, HUD sets income limits that determine who can qualify for housing assistance, including Section 8 vouchers, public housing and other assistance programs. The calculation is also used to set eligibility for affordable housing built by developers who receive tax credits.
The formula takes into account an area’s median family income, as well as its housing costs. Those who make 80% of the formula amount are considered “low income,” while those earning 50% are “very low income” and those making 30% are considered “extremely low income.”
In the San Francisco metro area, which includes Marin, San Francisco and San Mateo counties, an income of $44,000 or less for a family of four is considered extremely low, while the upper limit for having a very low income is $73,300.
These numbers are certainly eye-popping — and they have been rising swiftly. In 2014, the extremely low income limit was $33,200, the very low was $55,350 and the low was $88,600.
Home prices have been rising at an impressive clip, too. The median home value in the San Francisco metro area was $947,500 at the end of April, while the median rent was $3,300 a month, according to Zillow, a real estate marketplace.
Only 15% of San Francisco county residents could afford a median-priced home in the first quarter of 2018, according to Paragon Real Estate Group. That compares to 57% in the United States overall.
Anything which can’t go on forever will stop.
HASN’T SARAH HOYT’S SHOCKED FACE BEEN OVERUSED ENOUGH ALREADY THIS WEEK? As Membership Continues to Decline, an Epidemic of Embezzlement Plagues America’s Unions.
ALBERTO GONZALES: Justice Anthony Kennedy’s replacement should be young, conservative and swiftly confirmed.
The president has promised to nominate someone from a list that has been shared publicly. The individuals identified have solid conservative credentials; most have expressed the belief that the words of the Constitution and statutes be interpreted according to the text and that a judge’s role is limited in our constitutional structure.
The president should nominate someone with a record of achievement and excellence in the profession that one would expect of a Supreme Court justice. The president is also likely to nominate someone between the ages of 45 and 55 years, someone old enough to have a record of accomplishments, yet young enough to serve on the court for a substantial number of years and influence the court’s jurisprudence over generations.
Online wagering shows Brett Kavanaugh as the safest bet, who at age 53 is actually one of the older potential nominees. But at just 45 and female, Seventh Circuit Judge Amy Coney Barrett could possibly sit on the bench even longer.
I’m hoping Glenn will weigh in…
I DON’T BELIEVE IN NO-DRINK SCENARIOS: James T. Kirk Bourbon Unveiled As First In New Line Of Star Trek Branded Spirits.
(Hat tip, Charlie Martin, who knows me too well.)
HE WAS MERELY CAUGHT PROMISING TO STOP A PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE WHILE POSSESSING ENOUGH LEGAL AUTHORITY TO TRY AND DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT: Peter Strzok Grilled for Hours Behind Closed Doors on Capitol Hill, Denies He Was Politically Biased.
SMALLER GOVERNMENT: Scott Pruitt Is Rolling Back One Of The EPA’s Most Expansive Powers.
A section of the Clean Water Act authorizes the EPA to interfere with the permitting process for waste dumping projects managed by the Army Corps of Engineers. EPA officials can “preemptively veto” projects before a permit is officially applied for or “retroactively veto” a permit any time after its approval, according to the EPA.
“Today’s memo refocuses EPA on its core mission of protecting public health and the environment in a way that is fair and consistent with due process,” Pruitt said in a statement. “We must ensure that EPA exercises its authority under the Clean Water Act in a careful, predictable and prudent manner.”
The power is rarely used but remains one of the most expansive in the EPA’s arsenal. It acts as a fail-safe to catch and discontinue environmentally dangerous projects, supporters say according to The Wall Street Journal.
“I am concerned that the mere potential of EPA’s use of its … authority before or after the permitting process could influence investment decisions and chill economic growth by short-circuiting the permitting process,” Pruitt wrote in a Tuesday memo reviewed by WSJ.
Excellent.
What other bureaus, agencies, or departments could Pruitt be put in charge of?
CHANGE MORE OF THE SAME: Large-scale media mergers will lead to more blockbuster content, says Imax CEO.
“The middle companies are going to compete with the streaming companies, companies like Lions Gate LGF.A ,” Gelfond said on CNBC’s ” Closing Bell .” “And I wouldn’t be surprised to see some of them get sold as these streaming companies pick up more of that service.”
“On the high end, you’re definitely going to see Netflix NFLX and Amazon AMZN and Hulu and Apple AAPL go toward creating big blockbuster content,” he said.
Gelfond called an acquisition of Twenty-First Century Fox FOXA by Walt Disney DIS “inevitable” and said the movie business is going “toward more and more blockbusters,” or big-budget movies with high-profile stars.
Three years ago, blockbusters accounted for only 25 percent of the box office, but today they take up more than 30 percent, Gelfond said. That’s big business for global box office revenues, which were around $38 billion in 2016 but are expected to reach nearly $50 billion by 2020, according to Statista .
“You have to go big to compete,” Gelfond said.
A quick look at Fandango shows plenty of nine-digit-budget sequels showing nearby, but not much in the way of original content worth getting excited about.
UPDATE (FROM GLENN): Hey, don’t be so hard on them! There’s lots of variety. We’ve got remakes of old movies, we’ve got comic book movies, and we’ve got remakes of old comic book movies!
LIZ SHELD’S MORNING BRIEF: Trump SCOTUS Pick Will Destroy the U.S. Constitution and Much, Much More. “Yesterday the SCOTUS gutted the union political machine in the Janus v. AFSCME decision and then for the cherry-on-top, Justice Anthony Kennedy announced he would retire. President Trump will be filling another seat on the bench. I was a little sad we didn’t have time to drink the liberal tears from Janus before the nuclear meltdown over the Kennedy retirement, but I’ll take it.”
It was a good day.
YES. NEXT QUESTION? False Dawn in Afghanistan?
The Taliban’s first-ever cease-fire does indicate that the insurgency is willing to support peace — even if for only a few days. Many Afghans have now experienced peace for the first time. After nearly 17 years of war, five years of brutal Taliban rule, several years of bloody civil war, and a long period of Soviet occupation, the country got a tantalizing taste of how things could be.
Given a growing pro-peace civil society movement, there’s good reason to believe there’s an appetite for more. Even some Taliban fighters told journalists they’re tired of war. These are striking admissions. In contrast, a new report from the United States Institute of Peace, based on interviews with 32 insurgents and supporters last year, found that members of the Taliban rank and file were keen to keep fighting.
The cease-fire’s popularity could blunt the opposition that confronted Afghan President Ashraf Ghani during his previous pushes for reconciliation and give him more political capital and public support to push even harder for talks now.
It should be pretty clear by now that the Taliban don’t give a damn about popularity, and that “ceasefire” is almost certainly a euphemism for “rest up and reload.”
AS CERTAINLY AS NIGHT FOLLOWS DAY: Post-election Crackdown: Erdogan Detains 324 Security Staff in 24 Hours.
Sultans gotta sultanate.
CHANGE: US begins to dismantle Iran nuclear deal sanctions relief.
The Treasury Department announced it had revoked licenses that allowed U.S.-controlled foreign firms to export commercial aircraft parts to Iran as well as permitted Americans to trade in Iranian carpets, pistachios and caviar. It said businesses engaged in any such transactions have to wind down those operations by Aug. 6 or face penalties under U.S. sanctions. Another set of licenses covering other types of commerce, including oil purchases, will be revoked in coming weeks, with firms given until Nov. 4 to end those activities.
The step had been expected since May when Trump pulled the U.S. out of the landmark agreement under which Iran was given relief from sanctions in return for curbs on its nuclear program. Trump said the accord, a signature foreign policy achievement of his predecessor, President Barack Obama, was the worst deal ever negotiated by the United States because it gave Iran too much in return for too little. Trump also complained that the agreement did not cover Iran’s non-nuclear malign behavior.
Other parties to the deal — Britain, China, Germany, France, Russia and the European Union — have criticized the U.S. withdrawal, which has left the agreement at risk of collapse. The Trump administration is stepping up efforts to isolate Iran and its faltering economy from international financial and trading systems.
The Europeans can squawk, but the banks are falling into line:
Foreign banks that kept Iran trading oil through previous sanctions are pulling out under pressure from the latest round of U.S. restrictions, hitting a lifeline for the Iranian economy.
Even banks with no direct U.S. exposure are refusing to deal with Tehran, fearing that they will be cut out of the dollar-based global financial system.
Meanwhile: Iran protests set to continue amid collapsing currency, increasing pressure on regime.
Trump’s Reaganesque attitude towards Iran’s mullahs — “We win, they lose” — is a refreshing change from George W. Bush’s waffling and Barack Obama’s obeisance.
DEPUTY DEFENSE SECRETARY: Google’s Withdrawal from Pentagon AI Project Risks US Lives.
In April, some 3,100 Google employees signed a letter urging the company to forgo work on Project Maven, a pioneering, if still small-scale, Air Force program that uses machine learning and artificial intelligence to sort through surveillance video footage. In May, company officials announced they would do no more work on Maven after their contract runs out next year.
Speaking Tuesday at the Defense One Tech Summit in Washington, D.C., Work said that company employees who worry that the Pentagon’s artificial intelligence will kill people should should consider that it would increase risks for someone else.
“They say, ‘What if the work is ultimately used to take lives. But what if it saves American lives? 500 American lives? Or 500 lives of our allies?”
Work said he isn’t hearing the same employees complain that Google also opened an AI research center in China last year.
I’m of two minds on this one. On the one hand, if everybody else is going to use AI — and they will — then we’d better have the best. On the other hand… Skynet.
June 27, 2018
YOUR DAILY TREACHER: It’s Not Misogyny if the Targets Are Republicans, Right?
MAKING THE ROUNDS TODAY:
FLASHBACK: On Judicial Nominations, GOP Must Punish Democrats for Decades of Unprecedented Escalations.
Guy Benson tweets: “They talk as if Mitch/GOP stonewalling of Garland came out of nowhere. In fact, it was richly-earned vengeance” for decades of unilateral Democratic escalations & power grabs. A brief history.”
And from his 2017 column (linked above):
When Democrats continued their heretofore unforeseen practice of blocking up-or-down votes for majority-backed judicial nominees after the GOP regained the Senate in 2004, Republicans saber-rattled about invoking the so-called “nuclear option.” That fear led a bipartisan group of Senators, seven from each party, to forge the ‘Gang of 14′ compromise. The terms of that agreement survived a number of years until Democrats decided that they could not abide the GOP using the filibuster precedent they’d invented under Bush to thwart a limited number President Obama’s picks. For perspective, in their respective first terms, Obama had more of his circuit court nominees confirmed than Bush did — and enjoyed a better confirmation rate on district court selections than George H.W. Bush. Nevertheless, Democrats decided that the deployment of their own tactics against a Democratic president constituted a fresh justification to abolish the very practice they’d pioneered, detonating the “nuclear” option that many of them had inveighed against when Republicans were merely considering it as a method of overcoming Democrats’ previous unprecedented escalation. Some Reid defenders have argued that the former Democratic leader did everything he could to reason with Republicans to avoid going nuclear very early in Obama’s second term. Not true:
When Reid broke the filibuster [in 2013], he claimed the GOP could have avoided the nuclear option if they’d simply confirmed the seven appointees they’d been blocking. According to Politico, McConnell conceded to those demands to save the filibuster. At the last moment, Reid insisted that Republicans surrender the threat of filibustering any Obama’s appointments in the future.
Democrats single-handedly and unilaterally introduced the concept of judicial filibusters against majority-supported nominees, then proceeded to unilaterally end it, all over the course of about a decade. They started the practice when they were in the minority, then blew it up when they were in the majority.
Well, that’s different because shut up.
CHUCK SCHUMER: ‘Height of Hypocrisy’ if McConnell Doesn’t Stall Supreme Court Nomination Like 2016.
The Biden Rule applies to presidential election years, Senator, but I think you know that.
THE OUTRAGE HAS ONLY JUST BEGUN: Justice Kennedy Retiring.
So much more to come.
Update: More here and here at the PJMedia liveblog, and this news cycle is just getting started.
And even more from Caleb Howe.
UPDATE (FROM GLENN):

If she’s kicked out of an ice cream parlor, it’s got to be Breyer.