SUMANTRA MAITRA: No, Trump Is Not To Blame For NATO’s Chaos, Nor For Breaking Up The Liberal Order.

NATO is a mess — and that’s nothing new:

NATO enlargement post-Cold War was essentially a push from the liberal internationalist lobby within the Clinton administration, led by Madeleine Albright and backed by the German leaders like Volker Rühe. Evidence suggests there was significant academic opposition to NATO expansion during that time, including from the father of the strategy of Cold War containment, George F Kennan. He said NATO expansion would end up being the greatest blunder of our times.

There still remains a significant academic as well as strategic opposition to further NATO expansion, as almost everyone in the strategic community foresaw that an inexorable push of frontiers towards a former superpower like Russia would not only invite an understandable military backlash but install a hardline regime with a siege mentality within a former adversary.

Also, the cost-benefit analysis of providing an American taxpayer-funded security umbrella to corrupt, violent smaller countries not only is a heavy and needless burden based on a flawed strategy but encourages those smaller countries to risk conflict assuming that American cavalry is just around the hills.

However, the current ongoing debate on NATO funding is not that. It is not new, either. One of the strongest speeches against NATO was from former Defense Secretary Robert Gates in 2011. He highlighted, almost prophetically, that if NATO leaders failed to immediately increase their funding and improve hardware, retention, and deployment capabilities, future American presidents would find it hard to justify to the electorate why they should pay for rich countries like Germany to have bloated social security programs, and not invest more in their submarine fleet or air force. Incidentally, Germany has only four serviceable Typhoons in the Luftwaffe and has refused to increase its NATO budget.

Ideally, after winning the Cold War, NATO should have thrown itself one hell of a victory party, then promptly disbanded. The former member states could have maintained close military relations in a strictly de facto entente cordiale, but a defensive alliance with no external enemy is a contradiction in terms. That contradiction, plus unwise expansion into Eastern Europe, have given us the worst possible outcome: Provoking Russia while encouraging allied free-ridership.

YOU’RE GONNA NEED A BIGGER BLOG: Top Six Unhinged Reactions to Kavanaugh Nomination.

BLUE WAVE? Heidi Heitkamp faces reality of losing seat as race re-classified to ’tilt Republican.’

The classification increases the pressure on Heitkamp, who has been busy forging herself as a moderate Democrat not afraid to work with President Donald Trump and Republicans while fighting for the interests of North Dakotans.

Heitkamp has been forced to move toward the center because she’s defending a seat in a state that Trump won by more than 30 points over Hillary Clinton in 2016. To make matters worse, Heitkamp endorsed Clinton during the 2016 presidential race, an endorsement she has since rescinded.

When Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy announced his retirement, Heitkamp’s plate became even fuller. To appease North Dakota voters and help herself in November, Heitkamp will likely be forced to vote against her party and in favor of whoever Trump nominates to the Supreme Court.

To put it kindly, Heitkamp is vulnerable and Inside Elections’ analysis only confirms what political observers predicted about the race.

Don’t get cocky.

COMEDY: Chelsea Handler Says Sarah Sanders, Kellyanne Conway, Could ‘Benefit From Being Held In Cages.’

LITERALLY HITLER: Trump’s Supreme Court Nominee Allegedly Called Hillary Clinton the B-Word.

ANALYSIS: TRUE. #PermitPatty Showcases the Dangers of Overregulation.

The real face of overregulation has been in the news in recent weeks, after bystanders called the police on three young people in different states for peaceful behavior. The incidents serve as a reminder that an overly broad “rule,” even if rarely enforced, can be weaponized at any time. Such rules can serve to empower pettiness and bigotry that otherwise might have been limited to rude speech.

The three incidents all went viral, from the pathetic marijuana-corporation executive who called the police on an eight-year-old girl for the “crime” of “illegally selling water without a permit” on a hot summer day, to the neighbor who called the police on a 12-year-old for his summer lawn-mowing business, to the 16-year-old boy who was cuffed and arrested in Charleston, S.C., for selling palmetto roses (a longstanding Charleston tradition). Luckily, the police did not act on the complaints in the first two cases — but the very fact that people feel empowered to call the police over harmless behavior shows the pernicious reach of the regulatory regime. In each of these cases, the regulations in question were the sort justified on health-and-safety grounds.

And in all three cases, the children were black. These regulations may not have been written with race in mind, like those of the hallowed Progressive Era were, but the fact remains that this all-encompassing regulatory regime allows racists to act on their prejudice with force. Those who oppose bigotry, and yet support high levels of regulation with good intentions, ought to bear in mind that enforcement often falls upon those who are already marginalized, as we have also seen with drug and gun laws.

Never agitate for a government power you wouldn’t trust your political opponents to wield — because someday they will.

TREATING THE SYMPTOMS: Venezuela’s new series of bank notes, the bolívares soberanos, delayed.

Venezuela’s new series of bank notes, to be called bolívares soberanos, and necessary because the nation’s rampant inflation turned much of what it has been using into nothing more than play money, was supposed to be introduced on June 4.

When the Maduro government delayed it to Aug. 4, the national banker’s association asked for an extra month to prepare.

As of now, the Monetary Research Institute reports in its MRI Banker’s Guide to Foreign Currency, there is no indication that any of the seven new denominations, from 2 to 200 bolívares soberanos, have even arrived in Venezuela.

Maduro can knock as many zeros off the bolivar as he wants, but like weeds they’ll keep growing back.

Related: Venezuela annual inflation hits 46,305 percent.

VIDEO: NBC’s Chuck Todd: Kavanaugh Is ‘Very Confirmable.’

Hence all the shrieking about Trump’s nominee being literally Hitler.

CLAIM: Democrats ignore the left at their peril. Midwesterners aren’t scared of socialism — they’re hungry for it.

I’m a 29-year-old member of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) who was elected to the Chicago City Council in 2015. I ran on an unabashed platform of fighting for this city’s working class: fully funding public schools, opposing privatization, ending corporate welfare, preserving and expanding affordable housing and reopening shuttered health clinics. And I wasn’t afraid to call out the corporate-friendly Democrats who continue to cut vital social services while giving handouts to corporations and the wealthy.

The same has been true outside of major urban areas as well. Last year, in Rock Island, Illinois, millennial diesel mechanic and democratic socialist Dylan Parker won election to the city council on a broad platform for the many and not the few that included equitable economic development and universal broadband internet access.

Indeed, this hunger for anti-corporate, anti-establishment politics is spreading throughout the Midwest. You can see it in the massive growth of the Democratic Socialists of America — currently boasting over 44,000 members. Ocasio-Cortez and I are both members of DSA, which has seen chapters spring up everywhere from Indianapolis and Cincinnati to Des Moines, Iowa and Michigan’s Upper Peninsula. My own chapter in Chicago now has over 1,500 members.

The Democratic establishment may not want to acknowledge the growing popularity of the party’s left flank and its agenda of fighting for real social, racial and economic justice. But if they hope to win, it’s time they embrace it. If they don’t, we’ll take them head-on.

Blue-on-Blue infighting is always fun to watch. But when a major portion of a major party is ready to embrace ever-increasing statism, it isn’t a sign of political or cultural health.

TYLER O’NEIL: Trump Selects Brett Kavanaugh to Safeguard ‘The Crown Jewel of the Republic, Our Constitution.’ “The nominee pledged to keep an open mind in every case.”

TYLER O’NEIL: At Least One Democrat Senator Says He’s ‘Open to Voting Yes’ For Trump’s Supreme Court Pick. “Sen. Doug Jones (D-Ala.) suggested that he is ‘open to voting yes’ to confirm President Trump’s Supreme Court nominee, setting him apart from the Democrats who rushed to announce their opposition to any Kennedy replacement.”

Jones is up for election this fall in a very Red state.

LET’S GET FRACKING: There Are Fears About an Oil Spike Above $150.

Companies have been compelled to focus on boosting returns and shareholder distributions at the expense of capital expenditures aimed at finding new supplies, analysts including Neil Beveridge wrote in a note Friday. That’s causing reserves at major producers to fall and the industry’s reinvestment ratio to plunge to the lowest in a generation, paving the way for oil prices to surpass records reached last decade, according to Bernstein.

“Investors who had egged on management teams to reign in capex and return cash will lament the underinvestment in the industry,” the analysts wrote. “Any shortfall in supply will result in a super-spike in prices, potentially much larger than the $150 a barrel spike witnessed in 2008.”

The investment shortfall comes at the same time frackers have encountered unexpected technical hurdles in the way of expanding production — which is about the worst timing possible.

UZAY BULUT: European Turks Vote for Erdogan Back Home, and for Leftists in Europe.

THEY ALL KNEW: ‘Parks and Rec’ Producer Mike Schur Says Kevin Spacey Was ‘The Most Open Secret That’s Ever Existed.’

Schur first became aware of his behavior while he was writing for “Saturday Night Live.” “I remember very distinctly being like, he’s hitting on the pages and he’s hitting on the young men in the talent department,” he said. “You talk about open secret, it’s the most open secret that’s ever existed. I didn’t know maybe the extent to which the behavior was predatory.”

Problems stem from the fact that “we just don’t talk about this stuff,” he continued. “Women and men to whom the behavior is being done, who it’s affecting, are scared, they don’t know who to talk to.

If only there had been some in-the-know producer they could have gone to for help.

BREXIT BLUES: With Her Cabinet In Crisis, Here’s How Theresa May May Be Ousted.

What needs to happen for there to be a leadership contest?

A leadership challenge can be triggered if 15 percent of members of parliament in May’s Conservative Party write a letter to the chairman of the party’s so-called “1922 committee”.

The Conservatives currently have 316 members of parliament (MPs) so 48 of them would need to write such letters to challenge May.

Once that threshold has been reached, the chairman will announce the start of the contest and invite nominations.

Could this happen to May?

The chairman of the 1922 committee is the only person who will know exactly how many members of parliament have submitted letters of no confidence.

But some eurosceptic members of parliament have started submitting letters to the committee chairman in protest over her Brexit negotiating strategy.

What will happen during a no confidence vote?

If a no confidence vote is called then all serving Conservative members of parliament will be able to cast a vote for or against the serving leader.

If May wins any confidence vote she remains in office. If she loses, she is obliged to resign and barred from standing in the leadership election that follows.

As noted elsewhere, May’s loss of six cabinet ministers in eight months is unprecedented.

BUT OF COURSE: Amazon ‘Hate’ Report Lumps Christian Literature in with KKK, Neo-Nazi Products.

ALLAHPUNDIT HAS A HUNCH: It’ll Be Barrett For SCOTUS.

As for why Barrett over Kavanaugh or Kethledge, Trump’s instinct when told that he can’t do something is to do it. And Barrett is the one pick more than any other about whom he’s being told “You can’t do that!” She’s too pro-life! Collins and Murkowski will walk! Official Washington much prefers Kavanaugh or Kethledge! I think Trump processes advice like that in terms of “You don’t have the balls to do this.” It’s like waving a red cape in front of a bull. More than that, though, Barrett is very clearly the choice that’ll make his base happiest and galvanize them for a big chair-throwing culture-war brawl with the left. Kethledge is getting knocked by the right for his immigration votes, Kavanaugh is getting bashed for being a Bushie, but Barrett seems to be viewed as some sort of conquering white knight of social conservatism. I think that’s foolhardy: She’s far less of a known quantity as a judge than Kavanaugh or Kethledge are and might well disappoint conservatives in all sorts of ways over the next 40 years on the Court. (Although, crucially, probably not on abortion.) It’d be wiser to give her five years on the bench and then see where things stand.

But Republicans don’t necessarily have five years to play with. By far the stupidest argument in support of passing over Barrett this time is that Trump can save her for the eventual Ginsburg vacancy. Trump may be out of office in as little as two and a half years, though. There’s every reason to think Ginsburg can hang on until then. And if she does, it might plausibly be another full decade before a Republican president gets to fill a Court seat.

We’ll know soon enough.

HMM: China’s Polar Strategy: An Emerging Gray Zone?

While Chinese moves to gain influence and counter American dominance in the South China Sea, Indian Ocean, and the Pacific Ocean have drawn widespread attention, less attention has been paid to Beijing’s polar strategy. According to the Wilson Center’s Anne-Marie Brady, China seeks to become a “polar great power,” exploiting the polar regions along its pathway to reshaping the global balance of power. By 2050, U.S. strategists may confront a radically different situation, with the Arctic ice-free (during summer) and Antarctica potentially the site of great power contestation — and China the dominant power in both regions. Such an outcome would mark a remarkable reversal of the historical polar status quo, characterized by U.S.-Russia balance of power.

Beijing pursues its polar strategy across multiple domains: political, economic, scientific, and military. In 2013, China was granted observer status at the Arctic Council, the highest-level intergovernmental forum in the region. Earlier this year, China finally issued a Arctic white paper, and in January, President Xi’s Belt and Road Initiative was formally expanded to include the Arctic via a “Polar Silk Road.”

At the tactical level, Beijing is expanding its presence and reach into the harsh polar regions — it recently opened bidding for a nuclear-powered icebreaker, which would represent a remarkable step forward in its development of polar capabilities. Although described as advancing Chinese polar research capabilities, this platform is widely perceived as laying the groundwork for Chinese nuclear aircraft carriers.

Not just carriers, but a potential railgun ship.

MICHAEL WALSH: In Germany, the ‘Immigration’ Worm Has Turned. “As Mutti Merkel climbs down, the German desire for Ordnung reasserts itself.”

AS I WAS SAYING THE OTHER DAY: People returning to labor force in droves — a key step for the economy.

Nine years after the end of the Great Recession, the U.S. economy has achieved an unemployment rate comparable to the boom period of the late 1990s. Some 600,000 people rejoined the labor market last month, actively looking for work, a sign that jobs are indeed out there, and people are motivated to look for them.

The jobs report suggests that the gradual improvement of labor market conditions continues. Labor market recovery did not start yesterday; it has been a sustained trend, building momentum especially in 2015 and 2016 and continuing in 2017 and 2018.

The recovery is broad-based, with employment growing in almost all sectors of the economy. Only retail trade, interestingly, showed notable job losses in June.

The most encouraging aspect of the June report was the increase in the labor force. The substantial drop in the proportion of Americans actually working was a major negative effect of the Great Recession.

When enough people start looking for work again after becoming officially “discouraged” and falling off the unemployment roles, the unemployment rate can actually tick up (as it did last month), even during a period of substantial jobs growth.

It’s weird though that Obama didn’t get his Recovery Summer until after he left office.

SULTANS GOTTA SULTANATE: Turkey to Be Transformed as Erdogan Sworn in With Vastly Expanded Powers.

LIZ SHELD’S MORNING BRIEF: SCOTUS MADNESS Week Kicks-Off and Much, Much More. “Get your popcorn ready for tonight. I’ll be up watching– the twitter-mania following the announcement will be lit.”

WHAT HATH MERKEL WROUGHT? Germany’s Air Force Is Dying a Slow Death.

The German magazine Spiegel recently revealed that most of the Luftwaffe’s—the modern German air force’s—128 Eurofighter Typhoons are not flightworthy.

In fact, only about ten of the aircraft are ready for operations, Spiegel said. This raises doubts about Germany’s ability to meet its NATO defense commitments.

“The problem is complicated,” according to Spiegel.

Germany, at least, has been playing games with the Typhoon’s operational readiness, according to Spiegel. “The Luftwaffe counts all Eurofighter jets that are allowed to fly as available. But this includes many who do not have a functioning self-protection system. These may be used with dummies on the wings for training flights or maneuvers. Real missions, such as airspace surveillance on the eastern edge of NATO, are excluded with these jets.”

The problem is not “complicated.” Berlin has decided not to devote the resources necessary to keep its air force flying, and so now it barely can fly. The sad fact is that the last time the Luftwaffe was in this sad a shape, it was due to American, British, and Soviet enemy action.

LATE-STAGE SOCIALISM: In beleaguered Venezuela, young women use beauty pageants to escape poverty.

The 16-year-old daughter of a butcher and a teacher is pinning her hopes for a future free of poverty on a single goal: rising through the world of pageants and becoming an international beauty queen.

“These sashes represent a huge accomplishment for me,” says the skinny teen with dark brown eyes as she pushes her long black hair from one side to another. “I accomplished what I set out to achieve.”

While growing concern about sexism and the rise of the #MeToo movement recently led the Miss America contest to drop swimsuit competitions and emphasize personal accomplishment, in Latin America young women continue to flock to competitions where good looks are unabashedly championed above all else.

Now will the Left finally denounce Venezuela’s democratic socialism?

PERVERSE INCENTIVE: Australian law makes sexual consent explicitly verbal.

If you want to have sex you now have to ask for it loud and clear and get a verbal “yes” back under new reforms announced by the New South Wales government in Australia. NSW is a state on the west coast of Australia and Sydney is its capital.

Sexual consent is at the core of the state’s first strategy against sexual assault released on Friday, which will focus on raising awareness about consent, as well as protecting victims and preventing sexual harassment in workplaces and universities.

Under the package, a new $1 million advertising campaign will teach people how to “obtain a clear yes.” Young adults, in particular, will be targeted in pubs, bars, clubs and universities and via social media, with messages like “no means no” and ­“silence is not a yes.”

The perverse incentive is for men to surreptitiously record whatever goes on, to protect themselves from retroactive rape accusations.