ALLIES: Trump Says NATO Members Agreed to ‘Substantially Up’ Contributions; Macron Says It’s Still 2%. “Alliance communique put target at 2014 agreement with 2024 target date; president tweets that he wants increases effective immediately.”
Author Archive: Stephen Green
July 13, 2018
BLUE ON BLUE: Consumer group sues Ben & Jerry’s over eco-friendly claims.
The Organic Consumers Association filed a lawsuit Tuesday in Superior Court of the District of Columbia that accuses Unilever, the parent company of Ben & Jerry’s, of using advertising to create the false perception that the ice cream company “is committed to a clean environment and high animal welfare standards.”
The nonprofit says most of the milk used in Ben & Jerry’s ice cream doesn’t meet its standards for animal care and labor practices, but instead “comes from cows raised in regular factory-style, mass-production dairy operations,” according to the suit. It also claims that farms supplying the company are polluting Lake Champlain and Lake Carmi, and that several ice cream flavors contain traces of the pesticide glyphosate.
A decent gelato tastes better and has 33% less pretension.
CHANGE YOU CAN WILL BELIEVE IN: Saudi Prince Alwaleed pledges support for crown prince’s reforms.
Saudi Arabian billionaire Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, who was detained for three months in an anti-corruption campaign under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, pledged support on Thursday for the young leader’s program of sweeping reforms.
“I was honoured to meet with my brother HRH the Crown Prince and to discuss economic matters and the private sector’s future & role in #Vision2030 success,” he tweeted with a photograph of the royal cousins embracing in front of a desk.
It is the first publicly disclosed meeting between the two men since the anti-corruption crackdown was launched in November.
“I shall be one of the biggest supporters of the Vision through @Kingdom_KHC & all its affiliates,” Prince Alwaleed added, referring to his international investment company.
Just don’t leave your back turned, bin Salman.
PROFILES IN COURAGE: Dems who drafted bill to abolish ICE now say they’ll vote against it.
MAKE ‘EM TAKE A STAND: House GOP to Bring Democratic ‘Abolish ICE’ Bill to the Floor.
CHANGE: Tesla Hits Delivery Threshold for Juicy Federal Tax Credit.
Tesla Motors announced Thursday that it officially reached 200,000 deliveries this month, which is good news in terms of overall sales. But the figure also means the company has surpassed the threshold requiring that federal tax credits be phased out, which is bad news.
Some speculate that, without government incentives, fewer people will be willing to buy Tesla-branded vehicles. While that’s a possibility, the brand offers unique, trendy models not readily available elsewhere. We’d presume a discount on an iPhone would probably help sales as well, but affordability it isn’t the main reason people purchase them.
We’ll see what kind of impact it has on the automaker as the $7,500 federal electric vehicle tax credit for new owners is gradually phased out. It will also be telling for the electric vehicle market as a whole, as Tesla is the first EV producer to reach the limit.
Every time I see an electric vehicle on the road, I wonder how much of it I paid for.
OVERSIGHT: Congress Demands State Department Release Secret Report Busting Myth of Palestinian Refugees.
The State Department has, since the Obama administration was in office, been hiding a key report believed to expose the number of Palestinian refugees as far smaller than the U.N. and other have claimed for decades. The public release of this information could alter how the United States provides funding for Palestinian refugees.
The Washington Free Beacon first disclosed the existence of the refugee report in January, when the Trump administration decided to significantly cut funding to the U.N. Relief and Works Agency, or UNRWA, an organization long accused of harboring anti-Israel bias and of aiding Hamas terrorists in the Palestinian territories.
Though the State Department is legally required to publish an unclassified version of the report, it has repeatedly ignored demands by Congress that the report be released.
The State Department, when asked by the Free Beacon, could not provide any information or timeframe on the report’s possible release.
“The State Department is committed to taking all appropriate measures to provide information in response to requests from Congress,” a State Department official said.
Uh-huh.
LIZ SHELD’S MORNING BRIEF: Strzok Testimony Delivers and Much, Much More. “The Democrats played defense for the disgraced FBI agent, interrupting with parliamentary distractions to keep Strzok safe from answering questions or accidently lying under oath. It was quite a spectacle to watch the left defend a law enforcement agency while simultaneously demanding another be abolished.”
KREMLIN BLUES: Russia admits defeat on its ‘stealth’ F-35 killer by canceling mass production of the Su-57 fighter jet.
“The plane has proven to be very good, including in Syria, where it confirmed its performance and combat capabilities,” Russian Deputy Defense Minister Yuri Borisov said on Russian TV on July 2, as reported by The Diplomat.
But despite Russia’s nonstop praise for the plane and dubious claims about its abilities, Borisov said, per The Diplomat: “The Su-57 is considered to be one of the best aircrafts produced in the world. Consequently, it does not make sense to speed up work on mass-producing the fifth-generation aircraft.”
Justin Bronk, a combat-aviation expert at the Royal United Services Institute, told Business Insider that Borisov’s comments “could be charitably described as an unreasonably optimistic reason why they stopped production.”
Ya think?
BECAUSE SOCIALISM: Why Higher Oil Prices Won’t Save Venezuela.
Now that crude prices are rising again, the political and economic pressures are easing on oil exporters as revenues, in most cases, begin to surge. But there is one glaring exception, one country that relies on oil exports for essentially all its export revenue and whose economy is continuing its downward spiral despite the sharp rise in oil prices: Venezuela.
The simplest way to gauge the impact of oil price fluctuations on the economy and the potential effect on policy is to look at an exporter’s fiscal break-even price. The break-even price is the level at which oil prices need to sell in order to allow an exporter to meet government spending and produce a balanced budget. When crude prices fall below break-even, budget deficits start to balloon, eroding reserves and threatening economic stability. Depending on the availability of other exports and the size of reserves, large gaps between break-even and market prices can force a government to cut spending, raise taxes and borrow heavily. It can squeeze an economy well beyond the oil industry.
The most dramatic response to the drop in global oil prices came in Saudi Arabia, where an ambitious and daring crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, launched revolutionary reforms with an eye toward, among other things, reducing the country’s overreliance on oil. While the success of many of his reform plans remains unclear, the crown prince’s efforts to lower Saudi Arabia’s break-even price has been little short of spectacular. Before prices fell, Saudi Arabia’s break-even price was $105.70 per barrel. The government has since slashed expenditures by about one-fifth, cutting subsidies and other expenses, and raising taxes. The break-even level now stands at $74.40, and a recent study by a Japanese bank predicts it will reach $55 a barrel by 2021, giving the kingdom ample room to finance Crown Prince Mohammed’s goal of diversifying the economy.
Other Gulf states have also moved to narrow the gap, introducing a value-added tax, lowering subsidy payments and promoting new industries. Now, with oil prices climbing, these petroleum producers are set to reap a sharp rise in revenues against a lowered level of national expenditures.
The contrast with Venezuela could not be starker. Despite the rise in prices, Venezuela, holder of the world’s largest known oil reserves, is seeing its oil income continue to plummet, along with the rest of its economy.
Venezuela was one of the richest countries in Latin America when Hugo Chavez began imposing Bolivarian Socialism — and oil was only about $18.
The price of oil isn’t what’s wrong with Venezuela.
SEA STORY: China’s Expanding Navy.
In 2018, the PLA-N is at the point of commissioning a 10,000-ton air defence cruiser every year. It already commissions four guided missile destroyers, two guided missile frigates, and nine guided missile corvettes annually. These ships are fitted with advanced computers, data links, and long-range weaponry, as well as sensors with capabilities inconceivable to earlier generations.
But each advance in capability means additional complexity. Solid state equipment may be much more reliable than the valves of the past, but setting up complicated software-controlled systems and managing networks are highly demanding activities. Over-the-horizon tactics require greater precision and awareness of orders of magnitude than the old systems.
The PLA-N is clearly doing its best to advance its star performers. The commanding officers of the early anti-piracy deployments to the Indian Ocean are now admirals. But the great majority of the senior leadership and middle management of the PLA-N can have only a theoretical understanding of the capabilities of the force that is now being deployed.
Furthermore, the expansion has been so rapid that there must be very little chance to winnow out the inferior and mediocre – any personnel with operational experience with the new technology will have to be promoted and assigned to new construction. In the First World War, Britain’s Royal Navy struggled with the consequences of large-scale promotion past competence in a massively expanded fleet. Its operational performance reflected this, a lesson the PLA-N cannot ignore.
Naval traditions are expensive to come by — in treasure and blood. But once earned, those traditions can last centuries.
SETH LIPSKY: Losing the Supreme Court can teach Democrats same valuable lessons.
This line of thinking was nicely articulated the other day by The New York Times’ David Leonhardt in a column urging liberals not to despair. Leonhardt didn’t go so far as to suggest that a right-wing court would be the “best” thing in years. He did, though, urge a course of realism and a new strategy for pursuing liberal policies.
Like, say, winning elections.
“Over the last half-century, conservatives have put more energy into building a movement,” Leonhardt wrote. Above all, he added, “winning local, state and congressional elections.”
Democrats, meanwhile, “have emphasized higher-profile politics, like the presidency and landmark court cases.” Leonhardt suggested Democrats “can’t afford to do so anymore.”
Those strike me as wise words as we stand at the brink of what might yet come to be called the Trump court. And they are words to mark for the conservative caucus, too.
After all, we were there once.
And they will learn, once they’ve hit bottom and the old leadership dies off or is forced out.
DEBRA HEINE: Republicans Forced to Call U.S. Marshals to Serve Subpoena on Lisa Page. “They had to go back three times before they were finally able to reach her.”
July 12, 2018
CRIME OF THE CENTURY: Burglar breaks into escape room, can’t figure out how to escape.
NUTROOTS: Eight Shrieking Occupiers Arrested Outside of Portland ICE Facility. “What is f*cking wrong with you, you f*cking scumbags!”
AMELIA HAMILTON’S GROWING PATRIOTS PODCAST: The Jamestown Settlement. “This week, we talk to 9 year-old Elizabeth from Oklahoma, Nancy Egloff, a historian from the Jamestown settlement, and a special surprise guest. We chat about The Jamestown Settlement, and what the English settlers when they faced there, what really happened with Pocahontas, and more.”
LET’S GET FRACKING: World oil supply risks being ‘stretched to limit.’
The IEA welcomed in its July report last month’s agreement between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia to open the taps in order to bring prices down from multi-year highs.
But it pointed to supply disruptions in Libya after a string of attacks on infrastructure.
It also highlighted continuing unrest in Venezuela and a drop in Iranian exports after President Donald Trump announced he was pulling the United States out of the landmark nuclear deal reached in 2015.
“The large number of disruptions reminds us of the pressure on global oil supply,” the IEA said.
“This will become an even bigger issue as rising production from Middle East Gulf countries and Russia, welcome though it is, comes at the expense of the world’s spare capacity cushion, which might be stretched to the limit.”
The IEA report was published a day after both main oil contracts were sent into freefall by worries over a stronger dollar and the impact of the global trade war on demand.
The selling was also fanned by Libya’s resumption Wednesday of oil exports from its eastern production heartland after a showdown between the war-torn country’s rival authorities.
Even though Libyan exports have resumed, the IEA remains worried for the future.
“At the time of writing, the situation seemed to be improving, but we cannot know if stability will return,” it said.
Thanks, Obama.
THE BIG MAN SPEAKS: Turkish lira hits record low after Erdogan interest rate comments.
“Erdogan said yesterday interest rates must fall,” said a treasury desk trader at one bank. “This has been interpreted as a desire for a Turkish central bank rate cut at a time when additional tightening is expected and inflation has exceeded 15 percent.”
The central bank’s monetary policy committee, which has raised rates by 500 basis points since April in an effort to put a floor under the currency, will next meet on July 24.
Erdogan has described high interest rates as “the mother and father of all evil” and has repeatedly expressed a desire for lower borrowing costs to spur economic growth.
Investors believe the credit-fueled economy is overheating and want decisive interest rate hikes to tame double-digit inflation.
If Erdogan wants to cut interest rates and go on an official spending spree while inflation is rising, his country could go Full Venezuela — and everyone knows you never go Full Venezuela.
UGH: Robocall for California GOP Candidate Says Jews ‘Must be Stopped.’ “State party rules resulted in initial automatic endorsement for John Fitzgerald after he qualified for general election; chairman calls on voters to ‘reject anti-Semitism’ and reject the GOP nominee.”