Author Archive: Stephen Green
September 3, 2019
IT’S THE MASS SHOOTING THAT NEVER ENDS: Chicago’s bloody Labor Day weekend sees at least 35 shot, 7 of them killed.
Related (From Ed): Chicago Mayor Blames Republicans For City’s Violence.
Chicago’s last Republican mayor left office in 1931.
DECOUPLING: China’s factories had a surprisingly good month. But there’s trouble ahead for the economy.
The latest data presented some troubling signals. New export orders fell to the lowest level this year — an indication that foreign demand is declining as the US-China trade war rages on, said Zhengsheng Zhong, director of macroeconomic analysis at CEBM Group.
The trade war has shown no signs of abating, and the most recent escalation comes as concerns about slowing global growth are building, and as the fear of recession stalks several major economies. The latest round of tariffs that the United States and China imposed on each other went into effect Sunday.
Zhong pointed out in a note accompanying the Caixin data that there was “no sign of improvement” in business confidence.
“China’s economy showed signs of a short-term recovery, but downward pressure remains a long-term problem,” he wrote.
Plus: “What China is doing now to support its economy may not be enough to stave off problems later this year.”
While China’s military buildup and neoimperialist ambitions are worrisome, Trump is hitting them where it hurts.
THAT’S WHAT THEY ALL SAY: China’s Most Indebted Firm Is Too Big to Fail.
There’s a lot working against China’s most indebted property firm. China Evergrande Group is sitting on $113.7 billion in debt and its core profit fell 45% in the first half of the year. Real-estate growth is slowing, with banks under orders to curb home loans. President Xi Jinping’s refrain that houses are for living in, not speculation, has been cropping up more frequently.
Time to rein things in, right? Not Evergrande. The company, whose portfolio already includes theme parks and a football club, now wants to become the world’s biggest electric-vehicle maker in the next three to five years. It’s burning through precious cash – 160 billion yuan ($22 billion) – to build factories in Guangzhou.
…
For anyone gawking at Evergrande’s improbably ballooning debt load, just waiting for the doomsday clock to strike midnight, there’s a valuable lesson: This firm is too big to fail. Evergrande is one of China’s biggest developers – with projects in 226 cities – and its billionaire founder, Hui Ka Yan, is the country’s third-richest man. With property accounting for about a quarter of China’s gross domestic product, any instability in the sector has proven too much for Beijing to stomach. Time and again, the government has reluctantly reopened the credit spigots to boost a flagging real-estate market. Just look at 2008, 2011 and 2014.
This will end well.
TWITTER’S BLUE CHECKMARK OUTRAGE BRIGADE SELF-BECLOWNS ONCE MORE: Dem Congressman Claims It’s Easier to Buy an AR-15 Than Sudafed, Hilarity Ensues.
WHAT COULD GO WRONG? Boulder Cracks Down on Vaping, Tobacco Sales.
HMM: The Democrats’ Growing Threat of a Third-Party Run. “So many candidates, so many left-wing demands, someone is bound to take the Independent route.”
While a moderate Democrat threat is unlikely, with so few in the field, it is not out of the question. Four years ago, moderate Democrats still controlled the Party. They are still a group Democrats cannot afford to lose.
According to 2016 exit polling, Clinton received 52 percent of moderate votes. Presumably, many are still long-time Democrats. Once Bullock or Delaney drops out (and currently Real Clear Politics’ average of national polling has them at a combined 1.4 percent in the primary field), they could be a moderate landing space.
The Democrats’ far bigger Independent threat comes from their burgeoning left. According to Real Clear Politics’ latest national polling average, 59.9 percent of Democrats are currently supporting candidates on the left. For comparison, Sanders received just 43.2 percent of Democrat votes in 2016.
Such rapid expansion raises increased expectations. The Democrats’ crowded and competitive left-centric field will only stoke these. Inevitably, all will not be realized — particularly as the nominee tries to pivot to the center in the general election. This could open the door to any of many left candidates and supporters left out.
Wouldn’t that be nice?
ON THIS DAY IN 1939: Britain and France declare war on Germany.
At 1115 BST the Prime Minister, Neville Chamberlain, announced the British deadline for the withdrawal of German troops from Poland had expired.
He said the British ambassador to Berlin had handed a final note to the German government this morning saying unless it announced plans to withdraw from Poland by 1100, a state of war would exist between the two countries.
Mr Chamberlain continued: “I have to tell you now that no such undertaking has been received and consequently this country is at war with Germany.”
Chamberlain would continue to serve as PM until May 10, 1940, the day the ill-fated Battle of France began.
KRUISER’S MORNING BRIEF: Grande Order of Fake Outrage Edition.
Our friends on the left, alas, aren’t so carefree and fun-loving. We’ve discussed the permanently aggrieved nature of the modern progressives before. As I am often accused of never having anything nice to say about the other side, let me try something new here: I frequently find myself marveling at their ability to continue to surprise me, especially with their ability to concoct outrage and/or resentment in almost any given situation.
Take, for example, the young women’s rights writer for The Guardian, who finds the Starbucks policy of asking for people’s names a trigger for resentment.
Everything is problematical.
“NEARLY 100 MURDERS IN LONDON SO FAR THIS YEAR”: Man, 27, stabbed to death after car crash as mum pays heartbreaking tribute.
Britain has been battling a knife crime epidemic with fatal stabbings as deaths are at their highest level since the Second World War.
Violent crimes have surged in the capital since Sadiq Khan took office as mayor, with 2018 the bloodiest year in a decade.
The staggering statistics come a day after a report revealed that super-criminals who are caught carrying knives and committing crimes several times are STILL escaping jail.
Hat tip, Doug Ross.
PRIVACY: Google and Amazon use smart speakers for ‘surveillance,’ top tech investor says.
“I would say that there’s two or three layers sort of problematic layers with these new smart speakers, smart earphones that are in market now,” Borthwick told Yahoo Finance Editor-in-Chief Andy Serwer during an interview for his series “Influencers.”
“And so the first is, from a consumer standpoint, user standpoint, is that these, these devices are being used for what’s — it’s hard to call it anything but surveillance,” Borthwick said.
The way forward? Some form of regulation that gives users more control over their own data.
“I personally believe that you, as a user and as somebody who likes technology, who wants to use technology, that you should have far more rights about your data usage than we have today,” Borthwick said.
I’m not sure government intervention is the answer, but I do know that as much shopping as I do at Amazon, I’ve never bought an Alexa-powered speaker.
YOU’RE GONNA NEED A BIGGER BLOG: Democratic Presidential Clown Car Update. “Gillibrand is Out, CNN is going to subject America to 7 hours of climate change blather because they hate America (and ratings), Biden suffers imaginary flashbacks, and the next debates loom.”
August 31, 2019
LET THEM STOP WASTING THE MONEY THEY ALREADY HAVE, FIRST: Sanders Predicts Medicare Fraud Will Go Down ‘Significantly’ Under Medicare for All.
I CAN THINK OF 57 MYSELF: How Many Can You Name? 35 Obama Gaffes to Make Biden Feel Better About Himself.
Related: Joe Biden and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Gaffetastic Week.
Maybe he shouldn’t feel that much better.
August 30, 2019
No one, not even Trump, has ever successfully trolled at this level before.
I am in awe.
THE 21ST CENTURY IS NOT TURNING OUT HOW I’D HOPED: “We’re embarrassed”: US is close to losing measles-elimination status. “Health experts blame vaccine misinformation—and themselves.”
SHE USED TO WORK FOR MITT: ‘She Was a Spy From Day One:’ Trump Assistant Out After Discussing President’s Family with Press.
NOT REALLY. IT’S JUST A USEFUL SMEAR. The Left Still Thinks the Tea Party Was All About Racism.
MEANWHILE, OVER AT VODKAPUNDIT: Joe Biden and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Gaffetastic Week. “The nicest take is that Biden did nothing worse than ‘conflate details’ from different stories, or maybe he’s just playing it as fast and loose with the facts as ever. But the whole thing stank so much that it caused Esquire’s politics editor, Jack Holmes, to wonder if ‘Biden is legitimately confused,’ and that his ‘more recent episodes seem different,’ and ‘worse.’ By that, Holmes means, Biden ‘is struggling to place people and events within space and time,’ like someone who might no longer be firing on all cylinders. And poor Joe only started out with three.”
HMM: Biden’s Best Bet Is a Front-Porch Campaign.
In most sports, when you’re ahead by double digits, the smart (though boring) strategy is to play it safe and sit on your lead. Getting into arguments with political Lilliputians such as Senator Corey Booker and Andrew Yang elevates their profile while lowering Biden’s. And if Biden loses his cool and starts shouting, “And you can take those ducks to the bank!” or “My pants are made of iron!” the game is over.
He should borrow a page from Beto O’Rourke and release videos on Instagram or Facebook on his terms. Yes, I know that strategy isn’t working for O’Rourke, but that’s because O’Rourke isn’t the front-runner, and his videos are a cry for attention from a hipster doofus. The front-runners always get attention because they’re the front-runners.
The media and the activist base of the Democratic party want a lot of drama and ideological radicalism — partly because both groups are well to the left of not just the average American but the average Democrat, and partly because drama makes for better ratings. But most voters are sick of all the drama, and they’re turned off by calls for socialism and the like.
This isn’t an endorsement of Biden — I can’t go there — but rather an endorsement of a more elevated and dignified form of presidential campaigning.
Those are all solid reasons, I suppose. But the real reason is that the last couple of weeks have shown that Biden doesn’t seem to be up to the rigors of a traditional campaign.
AND OUGHT TO BE FACING CHARGES: James Comey was the Bad Guy in the ‘Russia Collusion’ story. “He lied to the President, lied about lying to the President, leaked government information to cover up his lying, and lied to the public about his lying.”
ANALYSIS: TRUE. Bret Stephens Is Not a Bedbug. He’s a Delicate Snowflake.