Author Archive: Stephen Green

KRUISER’S MORNING BRIEF: Merry Impeachmentmas! “Schiff’s Folly finally gets its vote, and all that remains to be seen is if Grandma Nan was able to talk vulnerable red state Democrats into tossing their careers away the way she did with the Obamacare vote back in the day.”

Lemmings.

OK, CHIEF: Keir Starmer lays out case for ‘radical Labour government.’

While the leadership race has not yet formally been launched, the shadow Brexit secretary confirmed to the Guardian that, as widely expected in Westminster, he was “seriously considering” running to succeed Jeremy Corbyn.

In a wide-ranging interview, Starmer said Labour did not do enough to tackle the Conservatives’ central election pledge to ‘get Brexit done’ nor sufficiently deal with antisemitism, and urged his party to return to being a “broad church”.

He insisted Labour could win the next general election; but only if it sticks to its values. “There’s no hiding from it. It is a devastating result, but it’s important not to oversteer. The case for a bold and radical Labour government is as strong now as it was last Thursday. We need to anchor ourselves in that,” he said.

Maybe “doubling down on stupid” sounds smarter when said with an English accent.

BRITTLE: Xi Jinping’s annus horribilis.

Xi can blame only himself — or, more specifically, his excessive centralisation of power—for the challenges of the last year. Trade disputes with the US, concerns about Chinese interference in Hong Kong and ethnic tensions in Xinjiang all preceded his rise to power in late 2012. But China’s collective leadership, however corrupt and indecisive, managed to limit the escalation of these crises, thanks largely to their aversion to risk. For example, when more than half a million people in Hong Kong protested against a proposed national security law in 2003, the Chinese government immediately agreed to its withdrawal.

As Xi has concentrated political power in his own hands, however, decision-making has been transformed. Those hoping to influence policy must gain access to Xi himself, and they have every incentive to cherry-pick information to support his preferences. Likewise, Xi’s colleagues on the Politburo Standing Committee, fearful of appearing disloyal, are loath to share information that may contradict his view. They know that proposing an alternate approach could be seen as a direct challenge to Xi’s authority.

Xi’s intolerance of dissent and vulnerability to bad information have made his government much more prone to policy blunders. Making matters worse, because a strongman must maintain an image of virtual infallibility, even demonstrably ineffective or counterproductive policies are unlikely to be reversed.

Lots of good stuff at the link. I’d just add that perhaps the biggest risk of one-man rule is that when things go wrong, there’s only one man to blame — and no peaceful outlet for it.

ALLIES: Turkey’s Erdogan threatens to close strategic bases to US military. “Turkey is upping the ante with threats to retaliate against the US if it imposes sanctions on Ankara for its purchase of a Russian missile system.”

Erdogan decided to buy advanced Russian antiaircraft missiles his military doesn’t need instead of buying even-more advanced jets his military does need — a decision which is splitting NATO and threatening his economy.

Other than that, though, brilliant decisionmaking.

HMM: Coast Guard: Russian Surveillance Ship Operating in ‘Unsafe’ Manner of East Coast.

The United States Coast Guard has received reports indicating that the RFN Viktor Leonov (AGI-175) has been operating in an unsafe manner off the coast of South Carolina and Georgia,” read the notice from Coast Guard in Charleston, S.C.

“This unsafe operation includes not energizing running lights while in reduced visibility conditions, not responding to hails by commercial vessels attempting to coordinate safe passage and other erratic movements.”

The notice went on to advise mariners to, “maintain a sharp lookout and use extreme caution when navigating in proximity to this vessel.”

The Russian Navy has had a long history of sending surveillance ships to monitor U.S. naval bases of the East Coast, including Naval Station Norfolk, Va., Naval Station Mayport, Fla. and the nuclear submarine base at Naval Submarine Base Kings Bay, Ga.

The Navy should provide the RFN Viktor Leonov with a very close escort, at least until their seamanship improves.