Author Archive: Stephen Green

MEANWHILE, OVER AT VODKAPUNDIT: Wargaming the Electoral College: 5 Scenarios, 3 Startling Finishes.

Four years ago this month, my first and wildest Wargaming the Electoral College scenario in which Donald Trump won, was what I called the “northern route” to a Trump victory through the Rust Belt states.

As it turned out, that’s exactly how Trump did win.

It was a close-run thing, and if the state polls are anything to go by then it’s going to be even tougher for Trump to pull off a second time.

But I don’t buy it.

It isn’t that the polls are necessarily wrong, it’s just that the electorate is going to be much more fluid in a crazy year like 2020.

More than figuring out who people are going to vote for, pollsters have to figure out who is actually going to show up and vote.

I’m not sure anyone has any clue how to determine who the Likely Voters are in a year like 2020.

If I were a pollster, I’d be bald from all the hair-pulling.

That said, we have to start somewhere, so let’s begin as we do every four years with the RealClearPolitics poll averages.

Much more at the link.

WHO? BidenWatch for September 21, 2020. “Greetings regular readers! I’m so glad you survived yesterday’s tragic mass die-off! Plus Biden campaign troubles, fundraising updates, the “Harris Administration,’ and the Burisma report looms.”

VODKAPUNDIT PRESENTS YOUR DAILY INSANITY WRAP: Crazy Battle as RBG Fights RBG on When to Fill a SCOTUS Vacancy.

Insanity Wrap needs to know: Remember that part in the Constitution where the makeup of the Supreme Court is determined in part by an old woman’s dying wish?

Answer: We don’t, either, but we do expect the media to remind us about it every other minute for the next seven weeks.

Before we get to the sordid details, a quick preview of today’s Wrap.

  • The people are revolting against the revolting people.
  • Michael Moore sounds the alarm on Biden’s Michigan effort.
  • Minnesota Democrats soft on child pornograpgy.

And so much more at the link, you’d have to be crazy to miss it.

CHARLES LIPSON: Ginsburg’s Death and the Dangerous Politics Ahead.

The Democrats’ immediate demand is for Ginsburg’s seat to be left vacant until a new Senate and president can fill it. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer made that demand Friday night, shortly after Ginsburg’s death was announced. All other Democrats will follow. They will pointedly add that the Republicans, who controlled in the Senate in 2016, refused to give Merrick Garland a hearing or vote after President Obama nominated him to fill Scalia’s seat. Republicans said then that nine months was too close to the election. It would be grossly unfair, Democrats say, for those same Republicans to move forward with their own nomination now.

McConnell has already rejected that argument, promising to fill every vacancy on every federal court during the current Congress. He is saying that the current situation is different since the presidency and Senate are now controlled by the same party. He will quote Democrats’ statements in 2016, when they insisted on voting immediately to fill the Supreme Court vacancy.

All of them are hypocrites. They have flipped their positions, and their justifications (then and now) are nothing more than cloaks for political advantage. They don’t care about consistency or even logic. They are fighting to win control of the Supreme Court and defeat the other side in November. They will say whatever helps their cause and hope voters forget whatever they said last time.

That last part will be pretty easy with the Infotainment industry providing 24/7 air cover.