I LINK, YOU DECIDE: World Affairs published two Iran-related pieces today. Elliot Abrams explains the grounds for an Israeli attack against Iran’s nuclear weapons facilities. Robert Wexler, meanwhile, argues that the Israelis should wait.

WALTER RUSSELL MEAD: Are Egypt and Israel gearing up for a fight?

NO SURPRISE THERE: Al Ahram reports that the Egyptian military has suspended the upcoming presidential elections.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SURGE: The Kindle version of my Iraq book, In the Wake of the Surge, has been reduced in price to 7.99.

THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD sheds its mask.

Some of us have seen through these guys all along. When I met with Muslim Brotherhood spokesman Essam El-Erian in Cairo he gave me the most bizarre and frankly deranged interview of my entire career so far.

1967 REDUX? Israeli historian Benny Morris argues in Tablet that the Middle East could be on the verge of another conflict a la 1967.

Mofaz will join Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak in a three-man kitchen Cabinet or the fuller eight-man “Inner Cabinet,” where the call of whether or not to launch a military strike against Iran will be decided. Both Netanyahu and Barak are on record as pessimists when it comes to the possibility that sanctions or diplomacy will stop Tehran’s march toward nuclear weapons. Both have made it clear that Israel will have to rely on its armed forces to resolve the problem, whether or not Washington gives Jerusalem a green light.

Thinking in Jerusalem is currently focused on the period between July, when a further round of sanctions against Iran will kick in, and the American presidential elections in November. Netanyahu and Barak believe that President Obama will find it very difficult to punish Israel for attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities just before the elections, since Obama will need the help of Jewish donors and voters, and other supporters of Israel, to win. On the other hand, an Israeli strike after the November elections will incur Obama’s wrath—and, some fear, could translate into sanctions against Israel.

NO SPRINGTIME FOR CAIRO: 61 percent of Egyptians choose Saudi Arabia as a model for religion and politics while only 17 percent would like to emulate Turkey.

#COMMUNISMFAIL: Extraordinary photos of East Berlin before and after the wall came down. (Hat tip: Ricochet’s Peter Robinson.)

ASGHAR FARHADI’S Academy Award-winning film A Separation has been released on DVD. It didn’t get a wide theatrical release since it’s in Persian (Farsi), but it’s absolutely worth seeing even if you don’t like reading subtitles. You’ll get a riveting and extraordinarily well-acted view of Iran beyond the politics, but sophisticated viewers will notice subtle political messages that are too understated for Tehran’s monkeyish government censors to notice. Government censors never seem to understand literature and film, and it’s always a pleasure to see what artists can sneak past them.

Trailer here:

[youtube MjTkXGRhy9w]

WAAAAAY BEHIND THE CURVE: Kofi Annan warns of possible civil war in Syria.

GET REAL: Vladimir Putin is not a victim.

WALTER RUSSELL MEAD on Israel’s new government.

The new centrist coalition relegates extreme parties to its fringe, increases Netanyahu’s maneuverability on everything from Iran to the economy to the peace process, and allows him to embark on much-needed electoral reform to reduce the influence on small extremist parties. But just as crucially, the new government will also put greater internal pressure on Netanyahu to deal with the Palestinians (Kadima and Mofaz are on record in support of a more conciliatory approach).

It is a mixed picture for Obama. On the one hand, this government may be a little easier to work with on Palestinian issues; on the other, it may be politically easier for the Israelis to launch an attack against Iran.

UPDATE: Roger L. Simon admires Mead, but dissents from his conclusion: “It depends on the Palestinians, or a significant component of them, actually wanting a two-state solution. Sadly, there is little evidence of that. Less and less, in fact.”

U.S. BOMB EXPERTS are trying to figure out if Al Qaeda’s upgraded and recently seized underwear bomb would have slipped through security if it had gotten that far. There’s no metal in it, so the body scanners would need to catch it. And maybe they wouldn’t.

TSA needs to spend more time looking for terrorists and less time looking for objects. A terrorist without a bomb or even tweezers is much more dangerous than an 80 year-old nun with a snow globe.

SOUTH SUDAN’S disastrous first year.

OH, PLEASE: The Syrian government says it’s counting ballots.

ANOTHER UNDERWEAR BOMBER is caught.

DINING WITH TURKISH OUTCASTS: Claire Berlinski attends a revealing dinner party in Istanbul.

There was the ancient Greek doyenne in whose honor the party was held. “I don’t like Americans,” she said. I offered a frozen smile. Five minutes later she was introduced to the designated long-suffering Jew. “Tell your country that they need to finalize their borders,” she said.

“Shame on you, you anti-Semite,” I said. Everyone looked uncomfortable for a moment, until they mistakenly decided I was charming and spirited. Later, another guest said to me, sotto voce, “We enjoyed your saying that.”

MEXICO, ALAS, has become one of the most dangerous countries in the world to work as a journalist. Three were killed this week alone for what they reported.

GREEK NAZIS IN PARLIAMENT are acting like Nazis. As they say, fascism is forever descending on America, but landing in Europe.

A KURDISH MAJORITY IN TURKEY? The birthrate for ethnic Turks is now below the replacement level while the birthrate for the Kurdish minority is well above it. Some now believe Turkey may have a Kurdish majority within two generations. I rather doubt that will actually happen, but the Middle East will change dramatically if it does.

SHAM ELECTIONS IN SYRIA: Parliamentary elections are supposedly being held in Syria today, but don’t you believe it. The opposition is boycotting the elections and calling them “a sham,” and they’re right to do so.

The amount of nonsense written about this country does not cease to astound me. If you want to know how that place really works, read The Truth about Syria by Barry Rubin, In the Lion’s Den by Andrew Tabler, The Strong Horse by Lee Smith, and, if you trust me, check out my own book, The Road to Fatima Gate.

BLIND DISSIDENT CHEN GUANGCHENG will apparently leave China with his family and study in the United States.

MICHAEL MOYNIHAN on Holocaust agitprop in Berlin: “[T]he most controversial work of the show is ‘Berek,’ a short film Zmijewski made in 1999 that features a group of smiling, naked people playing a game of tag in a Nazi gas chamber.”

YOU’VE GOT TO BE KIDDING ME: Not only has Iran’s state-run media used Photoshop to make another fake missile launch photo, this time the Mehrs News Agency included Jar Jar Binks in the picture.

WALTER RUSSELL MEAD: “To listen to many bien pensant American intellectuals and above-the-salt journalists, America faces a shocking problem today: the cluelessness, greed, arrogance and bigotry of the American public.” I can certainly see the appeal of believing everyone is dumb except for me and my colleagues and friends—especially as I belong to one of the “elite” professions myself—but I’m afraid Mead is right when he says, “it is the Establishment, not the people, that is falling down on the job.”