REMEMBERING STEVEN VINCENT: Judith Weiss hosts a blogburst commemoration to the murdered journalist over at Kesher Talk.

HEZBOLLAH WOKE UP: Allison Kaplan Sommer interviews Erika Galili live from an Israeli bomb shelter in a podcast for Pajamas Media.

“LEBANON IS A FINAL COUNTRY FOR ALL ITS CHILDREN”: Robert Rabil says a fresh debate has broken out in Lebanon’s Shia community about Hezbollah’s allegiance to Iran.

WHY LEBANESE BLAME SYRIA: A timeline of events, beginning in 1976, that led up to the current crisis.

WALID JUMBLATT, Syria’s fiercest enemy in Lebanon, says Lebanon is being pushed solidly into the Syrian-Iranian axis. “Our government will be like the government of Abu Mazen (Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas) next to Hamas or maybe worse like the government of [Nouri al] Maliki in Iraq.”

DEMOCRACIES AND WAR: I forgot something when I made my list of small encouraging signs. Perhaps I left out one that isn’t so small.

This war in the Middle East nearly demolishes the theory that democracies don’t go to war with each other. Lebanon, aside from Hezbollah’s state-within-a-state, is a democracy. At least it’s an almost-democracy. Aside from my personal affection for Lebanon, the country where I recently lived, the only country other than the US where I’ve ever lived, this is what anguishes me the most: The Arab world’s only democracy is being torn to pieces by another democracy.

But it’s telling, I think, that the Lebanese army, the fighting institution that represents democratic Lebanon and not just one totalitarian-sponsored political party, has chosen to sit this one out.

BAGHDAD BOB IS BACK: Haaretz reports that much of Hezbollah’s bragging is bogus.

THREATSWATCH says Hezbollah is doomed.

LEBANON.PROFILE is extremely upset that Israel did not attempt to ally itself with Lebanon. (He could be, and most likely is, just as frustrated that Lebanon did not attempt to ally itself with Israel.) He quite correctly points out that Israel and Lebanon are similar countries with similar regional problems and the same list of enemies. I’ve been saying for some time now that the two would be natural allies in a more intelligent world. Maybe someday, years from now, after all this is over, and – Inshallah – Hezbollah is out of the picture.

HOW GOES THE WAR? Dean’s World features two back-to-back essays on the same question. Aziz Poonawalla says Hezbollah is winning. Ron Coleman says Israel is winning. Who’s right? Who knows? I link, history decides.

THE FOG OF WAR makes it nearly impossible to say who is actually winning or losing militarily in Lebanon. The politics are much easier to read. Right now it looks good for Hezbollah, bad for (the rest of) Lebanon, bad for Israel, and bad for the United States. But the politics are in constant flux and probably won’t stabilize even after the fighting is over. Here are four small encouraging signs posted over at my own blog.

AL ARABIYA reports that Sunni extremists in the Muslim Brotherhood may have joined with Hezbollah in Lebanon to fight the Israelis. (Arabic here, English reference here.) I don’t know if it’s true. And if it is true the MB guys are almost certainly going to die. But it wouldn’t surprise me at all if it’s true. Israelis all but guaranteed severe political consequences as soon as they bombed Beirut. Lebanon’s sects are temporarily united in common defiance. It won’t last very long. But it will last until after a ceasefire, making a ceasefire on Israel’s terms instead of Hezbollah’s that much more difficult if the military campaign continues to look anything like a draw.

A PLEA at Publius Pundit: Save Lebanon, Save Arab Democracy.

SORRY FOR THE GLOOM: I know you don’t want to hear this right now, but Brett Stephens, Ralph Peters, and National Review think Israel is losing the war in Lebanon. That also means Lebanon and its rising democracy, as opposed to Hezbollah, are losing the war.

(Two months ago I wrote that Israel should relatiate against Syria or Iran instead of Lebanon if they wanted to see good results.)

I SURE HOPE HE’S WRONG, but I fear he might not be: Lebanon.Profile at the Lebanese Political Journal says Hezbollah effectively mounted a coup using Israel to assassinate the government. There are a few signs it won’t turn out this way in the end, and I’ll get to them shortly.

FIDEL CASTRO (temporarily) handed power over to his brother Raul.

LEBANON’S FOREIGN MINISTER Tareq Mitri proposes the deployment of the Lebanese army in the south and the disarmament of all non-state militias. No word yet on whether or not Hezbollah finds this acceptable.

MICHAEL YOUNG interviews Lebanese Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, who is now being threatened by Hezbollah as well as Syria.

HEZBOLLAH’S NEXT MOVE? “Ali” from Hezbollah says Lebanese politicians are “next” after Israel withdraws:

And even when the battle with the Israelis is over, he adds menacingly, Hizbullah will have other battles to fight. “The real battle is after the end of this war. We will have to settle score with the Lebanese politicians. We also have the best security and intelligence apparatus in this country, and we can reach any of those people who are speaking against us now. Let’s finish with the Israelis and then we will settle scores later.”

REAL SIMPLE: George Jonas explains what ought to be obvious:

I’ve stumbled upon the secret of the countries Israel has never bombed or invaded. Different as they may be from one another, they have one thing in common. These countries have never bombed or invaded Israel…No matter how much you detest Israelites in particular, or Jews in general, as long as you can content yourself with calling on God’s wrath to rain down on the Jewish State, and refrain from reinforcing your prayer by supplying missiles to Hezbollah, you can exercise your religious freedom of loathing with no other consequence than perhaps being loathed in return.