ANNALS OF IRRESPONSIBLE REPORTING: Washington Post (free link): Grocery Workers are Beginning to Die of Coronavirus.

The reporter tells us that at least four grocery store workers have died from Covid-19. Do we know if they caught the virus at their place of work? The reporter doesn’t say, and probably didn’t even ask. Meanwhile, the reporter never stops to ask whether “at least four” is a sufficiently large number that grocery store workers should be concerned.

So here is some quick math. About 2.5 million Americans work in grocery stores. About one in every 30 thousand Americans has now died of Coronavirus. Taking the simplest route, you would expect approximately 83 grocery, or 2.5 million/30 thousand, grocery store workers to have died of the virus.

If you were doing at least a semi-serious statistical analysis, you would then have to modify the 83 figure by age, preexisting conditions, etc., and almost certainly get a lower tally. But the point is, despite the tenor of the article the fact that at least four grocery store workers have died of the virus doesn’t give you any useful information about whethert being a grocery store worker puts you at special risk.

I’m not saying there isn’t an increased risk, and I do appreciate that the workers are coming to work every day and *potentially* putting themselves at higher risk. I am saying, reporting on “at least four deaths” out of 2.5 million grocery store workers isn’t actionable information. Scare stories like this, that provide no context, with reporters who don’t ask basic questions, are just irresponsible.

UPDATE (FROM GLENN): Why are grocery workers dying? I blame reusable shopping bags! Will no one stop the madness?

SOME IN DC MEASURE THEIR SUCCESS WITH RED TAPE: Hans Bader: Red tape and bureaucratic mistakes thwart fight against coronavirus

A SERIOUS PERSON WOULDN’T LIMIT HIMSELF TO A FRACTION OF THE PLAUSIBLE CANDIDATES: Evaluating the Biden Veepstakes: “Before the coronavirus threat, Biden’s biggest decision was between a moderate choice who would shore up the party’s weaknesses in the Midwest or excite the base, or a more historic, progressive pick. Now his only consideration should be finding someone who is prepared to be president and is capable of demonstrating competence at a time of crisis.” Biden should revoke his stupid promise to choose a woman. With Biden an obviously-declining 77 and a major public health crisis afoot, there is no good reason beyond insipid identity politics to limit oneself to the small pool of women who have the experience to competently take over the presidency on Day 1. Our complicit media has consistently praised Biden for doing so, instead of questioning why an elderly presidential candidate should be dismissing eighty percent or so of the plausible candidates out-of-hand. And if I were Biden, you know who would be looking intriguing to me right now? Bill Gates.

I’M NOT AN EPIDEMIOLOGIST, BUT: Following up on yesterday’s post on the low level of Covid-19 infections in Australia… Hawaii, population 1.5 million, has only 351 confirmed Covid-19 cases, and three deaths, despite Honolulu being a densely-packed urban area and tons of tourist traffic from Asia in December and January. Puerto Rico, population 3.2 million, has only 452 confirmed cases of Covid-19 and 18 deaths, despite a huge amount of traffic between the New York area and the island, and San Juan being a densely-packed city. Like I said, I’m not an epidemiologist, but I’d love to know if someone who is has provided an explanation for these statistics beyond sunshine, humidity, and hot weather. (Note: New Orleans has been consistently hot since March 10, and if that doesn’t slow the spread of the virus, it would definitely throw a monkey wrench into the weather theory, though not necessarily into the “protective nature of Vitamin D” theory, as I suspect residents of San Juan and Honolulu get a lot more sun in the Winter than do residents of New Orleans. P.S. I’m aware that Mardis Gras was likely a “super spreader event,” but if hot weather is protective, the rate of spread in March and April should be slower than in colder climates).

UPDATE: Yes, I know that Guayaquil, Ecuador, right on the equator, has been hard-hit. But conditions in a Third-World country (per capita GPD $6,000) are quite different than the U.S. and Australia, and it’s doubtful in any event that we can get useful data out of their public health system.

HOPEFUL NEWS FROM AUSTRALIA?: According to the Australian government Department of Health site, as yet there is not “widespread community transmission” of Covid-19, and, importantly, “The majority of Australian confirmed cases acquired their infection overseas, including on board cruise ships or associated with recent travel to Europe or the Americas.” Also, only thirty Australians have died from Covid-19 thus far. There is still widespread debate among scientists about how weather/seasonality will affect the spread of Covid-19. But given all the traffic between China and Australia, and the fact that Australia didn’t cut off travel to China until February 1 (and even then initially had many loopholes), one can be hopeful that the relatively mild outbreak of Covid-19 in their Summer reflects a strong seasonal component to the virus.

WHEN MAKING PUBLIC POLICY, SHOULD WE THINK ABOUT ONE HUNDRED THOUSAND DEATHS, OR AN AVERAGE OF A ONE IN THREE THOUSAND CHANCE OF DYING?: Covid-19, the Evil Genius, and How to Think about Societal Risks.

9/11 HASN’T MADE US PREPARED: New York City has identified about twenty thousand cases of Coronavirus (pdf file). That’s everyone who has tested positive. It’s not clear how many of those patients require hospitalization, but it’s almost certainly less than 20% (and probably more like 5%). Let’s use the 20% figure as the worst-case scenario. The media, social and traditional, is telling us that New York City’s hospital system is buckling. If so, it’s buckling under the pressure of at most four thousand new, hospitalized patients. New York, as we know, is, along with Washington, DC, the primary obvious potential terrorist target in the U.S. I would have thought with the threat of biological terrorism, dirty bombs, etc., we’d have contingency plans to expand hospitals capacity by tens of thousands quickly. Apparently not. If four thousand or fewer new hospital patients in a week or so can bring down the entire NYC hospital system, we have a serious preparedness problem.

UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS SKYROCKET: I’m going to lose it if I hear one more left-wing pundit suggest that being concerned about the economic toll of widespread shutdowns reflects concern about “protecting corporate profits” instead of worrying about human suffering.

A CHEAP AND EFFECTIVE WAY TO LIMIT THE SPREAD OF COVID-19: I’m puzzled as to why we are shutting down large parts of the economy, while not doing simpler, much less expensive things. Why are we not on a crash course to produce hospital masks, and ask or require people to wear them when they go out to places where they may infect people? Basic masks don’t protect you much from the virus [though it will stop you from touching your mouth and nose, which is its own advantage], but if you are carrying the virus and don’t know it, it will prevent your cough or sneeze from spreading it to the person sitting/standing next to you. It’s one of the reasons, as I understand it, that infection rates in Asia, where mask-wearing is common, have plummeted. Below: South Korea.

POSSIBLE EXCELLENT NEWS ON COVID-19: This morning, a friend forwarded an abstract of a study from the Center for Evidence-Based Medicine estimating that the CFR (case fatality rate–the number of reported deaths per number of reported cases) is only .1%, i.e., one out of a thousand. I was going to pass it on earlier, but I really couldn’t make heads or tails of how they came up with that figure, so I emailed them, and they updated their post with this:

How do we arrive at this CFR figure?

The current COVID outbreak seems to be following previous pandemics in that initial CFRs start high and then trend downward. In Wuhan, for instance, the CFR has gone down from 17% in the initial phase to near 1% in the late stage. Current testing strategies are also not capturing everybody: at least 50% on Diamond Princess were asymptomatic who usually wouldn’t get a test; in South Korea, considerable numbers who tested positive were also asymptomatics. Asymptomatic people and mild cases are likely driving the rapid worldwide spread. Early CFR rates are subject to selection bias as more severe cases are tested – generally those in the hospital settings or those with more severe symptoms. Mortality in children seems to be near zero (unlike flu) which will drive down the CFR significantly. In Swine flu, the CFR was fivefold less than the lowest estimate in the 1st ten weeks (0.1%)

Therefore, to estimate the CFR, we used the lowest estimate, currently Germany’s 0.25%, and halved this based on the assumption that half the cases go undetected by testing and none of this group dies. Our assumptions, however, do not account for some exceptional cases, as in Italy, where the population is older, smoking rates are higher and antibiotic resistance is the highest in Europe, which all can act to increase the CFR. It is also not clear if the presence of other circulating influenza illnesses acts to increase the CFR and whether certain populations (e.g., those with heart conditions) are more at increased risk.

GREAT MOMENTS IN ALUMNI RELATIONS, BRANDEIS UNIVERSITY EDITION: [Note that Brandeis is a Jewish-sponsored university, with a historically majority-Jewish student body.]

SANDERS BRINGING CYNICISM TO A WHOLE NEW LEVEL: There are a few things we know about Bernie Sanders. (1) He is Jewish, and though he has never been very vocal about it, this campaign season he has emphasized his pride in his Jewish background; (2) He claims to believe in a “higher power” of some sort, but it’s not the Judeo-Christian God, but something more New Agey–if he’s not really just an atheist and doesn’t want to admit for political reasons; (3) He acknowledges that he doesn’t participate in organized religion; and (4) He purports to be very offended by antisemitism, as when he expressed outrage at the swastika unveiled at his recent campaign rally.

So, naturally his campaign releases photographs of him… engaging in assumedly Christian prayer with a famous African-American minister who has a history of making antisemitic comments in a rather transparent attempt to cut into Joe Biden’s lead with black voters. Can’t make this stuff up, folks.

BERNIE SANDERS, USEFUL IDIOT: As Bernie Sanders Pushed for Closer Ties, Soviet Union Spotted Opportunity: Previously unseen documents from a Soviet archive show how hard Mr. Sanders worked to find a sister city in Russia when he was a mayor in the 1980s. Moscow saw a chance for propaganda.

LESSON OF THE DAY FOR PROGRESSIVES: Between Professor Susan Estrich running Dukakis’s campaign into the ground in 1988, Larry Lessig’s presidential campaign, and Warren’s embarrassing flop on Super Tuesday, including third place in Massachusetts, maybe it’s time to conclude that the faculty of Harvard Law School doesn’t have its finger on the pulse of America.

THIS IS STARTING TO GET SCARY: Japan closes schools through the end of March

IT’S CALLED COMMUNIST PROPAGANDA, AND BERNIE FALLS FOR IT EVERY TIME: Hans Bader:

According to UNESCO, Cuba had about the same literacy rate as Costa Rica and Chile in 1950 (close to 80%). And it has almost the same literacy rate as they do today (close to 100%). Meanwhile, Latin American countries that were largely illiterate in 1950 — like Peru, Brazil, El Salvador, and the Dominican Republic — are largely literate today, closing much of the gap with Cuba. El Salvador had a less than 40% literacy rate in 1950, but has an 88% literacy rate today. Brazil and Peru had a less than 50% literacy rate in 1950, but today, Peru has a 94.5% literacy rate, and Brazil a 92.6% literacy rate. The Dominican Republic’s rate rose from a little over 40% to 91.8%. While Cuba made substantial progress in reducing illiteracy in Castro’s first years in power, its educational system has stagnated since, even as much of Latin America improved.

MUSSOLINI MADE THE TRAINS RUNS ON TIME, BERNIE SANDERS EDITION: It’s not surprising that Bernie still sympathizes with Communist Cuba, but it is remarkable that he doesn’t seem to either recognize or care that this sort of thing is politically deadly, especially in Florida.

MAYBE THE DEMOCRATS SHOULD WORRY LESS ABOUT THE POLITICS, AND MORE THAT THEY ARE ABOUT TO NOMINATE SOMEONE WHO IS EITHER THIS STUPID OR THIS EVIL FOR PRESIDENT:

HOW ANGRY WAS BERNIE SANDERS?: Bernie Sanders Calls Out MSNBC Over Campaign Coverage.

This angry:

(more…)

IS BERNIE SANDERS REALLY A “DEMOCRATIC” SOCIALIST?: In 1980, Sanders could have endorsed one of 2 far-left democratic socialists running, Barry Commoner or David McReynolds. Instead he endorsed the Communist/Trotskyite Socialist Workers’ Party ticket, Pulley-Zimmerman. Here is an excerpt of an article from the SWP’s newspaper, The Militant, October 24, 1980, courtesy of historian David Beito.

NO ONE WITH A FIRM GRIP ON REALITY: Jonah Goldberg: Does Anyone Really Believe Free Market Fundamentalists Are ‘Running the Show’?

MORAL ROT AT UC BERKELEY (moved to top with corrected link): UC Berkeley chancellor not ‘interested in blame’ in response student-government chaos. A group of pro-Palestinian students displayed celebratory posters of terrorists who murdered Israeli civilians. A student introduced a resolution to the student government condemning the display. The Palestinian group disrupted the meeting with chants of “Free Palestine.” Here’s what university Chancellor Carol Christ had to say:

“Students who support the Palestinian cause have a right t o celebrate those they see as fighters for that cause, and their rights to express that support are fully protected by our country’s constitution,” she continued. “By the same token, Jewish students have a right to feel dismay and concern after seeing a poster they perceive as honoring those who killed, or attempted to kill, unarmed Jewish civilians. Each side has an equal right to express and have heard their perspective.”

Yes, the students have a “right” to celebrate terrorists who murder Jews, and the chancellor has the “right” to not draw moral equivalence between those who celebrate such terrorists and those who object to such terrorism. And yet she didn’t exercise it. Note, by the way, the use of the weasel word, “perceive.” The terrorists in question did murder Jewish civilians, and suggesting that the Jewish students only “perceive” it that way is a way for Chancellor Christ to evade responsibility for her horrific moral equivalence.

It’s also worth noting that the pro-Palestinian students do NOT have a right to disrupt a student government meeting (which no one seems to deny), or to harass other students (which is in dispute).

KILLING THE GOLDEN GOOSE: Northern Virginia has been mopping the floor with DC’s Maryland suburbs, because Virginia’s business climate is so much more favorable. The new Democratic majority in the state legislature, however, seems determined to reverse that, starting with a new, radical antidiscrimination law.

WHY IS THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY SUCH A HIVE OF ANTISEMITISM: Elizabeth Warren slanders AIPAC, and by extension, the American Jewish Community.

A QUESTION NO ONE IN THE MSM IS ASKING: Various Democrats are all over the media today saying that the fact that the GAO found that Trump acted illegally re spending appropriated funds means he should be tossed out of office. Does this mean that Obama, whom the GAO found illegally defied Congress in ordering the Defense Department to send five Guantanomo prisoners to Qatar in defiance of duly-enacted legislation prohibited Obama from expending any funds on such action, should have been removed from office as well? If you can find me a Democratic House member or Senator who denounced Obama for that move, I’ll concede that he is sincerely interested in presidential lawfulness and the separation of powers.