Author Archive: David Bernstein
March 26, 2020
March 21, 2020
A CHEAP AND EFFECTIVE WAY TO LIMIT THE SPREAD OF COVID-19: I’m puzzled as to why we are shutting down large parts of the economy, while not doing simpler, much less expensive things. Why are we not on a crash course to produce hospital masks, and ask or require people to wear them when they go out to places where they may infect people? Basic masks don’t protect you much from the virus [though it will stop you from touching your mouth and nose, which is its own advantage], but if you are carrying the virus and don’t know it, it will prevent your cough or sneeze from spreading it to the person sitting/standing next to you. It’s one of the reasons, as I understand it, that infection rates in Asia, where mask-wearing is common, have plummeted. Below: South Korea.
March 19, 2020
POSSIBLE EXCELLENT NEWS ON COVID-19: This morning, a friend forwarded an abstract of a study from the Center for Evidence-Based Medicine estimating that the CFR (case fatality rate–the number of reported deaths per number of reported cases) is only .1%, i.e., one out of a thousand. I was going to pass it on earlier, but I really couldn’t make heads or tails of how they came up with that figure, so I emailed them, and they updated their post with this:
How do we arrive at this CFR figure?
The current COVID outbreak seems to be following previous pandemics in that initial CFRs start high and then trend downward. In Wuhan, for instance, the CFR has gone down from 17% in the initial phase to near 1% in the late stage. Current testing strategies are also not capturing everybody: at least 50% on Diamond Princess were asymptomatic who usually wouldn’t get a test; in South Korea, considerable numbers who tested positive were also asymptomatics. Asymptomatic people and mild cases are likely driving the rapid worldwide spread. Early CFR rates are subject to selection bias as more severe cases are tested – generally those in the hospital settings or those with more severe symptoms. Mortality in children seems to be near zero (unlike flu) which will drive down the CFR significantly. In Swine flu, the CFR was fivefold less than the lowest estimate in the 1st ten weeks (0.1%)
Therefore, to estimate the CFR, we used the lowest estimate, currently Germany’s 0.25%, and halved this based on the assumption that half the cases go undetected by testing and none of this group dies. Our assumptions, however, do not account for some exceptional cases, as in Italy, where the population is older, smoking rates are higher and antibiotic resistance is the highest in Europe, which all can act to increase the CFR. It is also not clear if the presence of other circulating influenza illnesses acts to increase the CFR and whether certain populations (e.g., those with heart conditions) are more at increased risk.
SANDERS BRINGING CYNICISM TO A WHOLE NEW LEVEL: There are a few things we know about Bernie Sanders. (1) He is Jewish, and though he has never been very vocal about it, this campaign season he has emphasized his pride in his Jewish background; (2) He claims to believe in a “higher power” of some sort, but it’s not the Judeo-Christian God, but something more New Agey–if he’s not really just an atheist and doesn’t want to admit for political reasons; (3) He acknowledges that he doesn’t participate in organized religion; and (4) He purports to be very offended by antisemitism, as when he expressed outrage at the swastika unveiled at his recent campaign rally.
So, naturally his campaign releases photographs of him… engaging in assumedly Christian prayer with a famous African-American minister who has a history of making antisemitic comments in a rather transparent attempt to cut into Joe Biden’s lead with black voters. Can’t make this stuff up, folks.
March 5, 2020
March 4, 2020
LESSON OF THE DAY FOR PROGRESSIVES: Between Professor Susan Estrich running Dukakis’s campaign into the ground in 1988, Larry Lessig’s presidential campaign, and Warren’s embarrassing flop on Super Tuesday, including third place in Massachusetts, maybe it’s time to conclude that the faculty of Harvard Law School doesn’t have its finger on the pulse of America.
February 27, 2020
THIS IS STARTING TO GET SCARY: Japan closes schools through the end of March
February 25, 2020
IT’S CALLED COMMUNIST PROPAGANDA, AND BERNIE FALLS FOR IT EVERY TIME: Hans Bader:
According to UNESCO, Cuba had about the same literacy rate as Costa Rica and Chile in 1950 (close to 80%). And it has almost the same literacy rate as they do today (close to 100%). Meanwhile, Latin American countries that were largely illiterate in 1950 — like Peru, Brazil, El Salvador, and the Dominican Republic — are largely literate today, closing much of the gap with Cuba. El Salvador had a less than 40% literacy rate in 1950, but has an 88% literacy rate today. Brazil and Peru had a less than 50% literacy rate in 1950, but today, Peru has a 94.5% literacy rate, and Brazil a 92.6% literacy rate. The Dominican Republic’s rate rose from a little over 40% to 91.8%. While Cuba made substantial progress in reducing illiteracy in Castro’s first years in power, its educational system has stagnated since, even as much of Latin America improved.
February 21, 2020
HOW ANGRY WAS BERNIE SANDERS?: Bernie Sanders Calls Out MSNBC Over Campaign Coverage.
This angry:
February 20, 2020
IS BERNIE SANDERS REALLY A “DEMOCRATIC” SOCIALIST?: In 1980, Sanders could have endorsed one of 2 far-left democratic socialists running, Barry Commoner or David McReynolds. Instead he endorsed the Communist/Trotskyite Socialist Workers’ Party ticket, Pulley-Zimmerman. Here is an excerpt of an article from the SWP’s newspaper, The Militant, October 24, 1980, courtesy of historian David Beito.
February 19, 2020
NO ONE WITH A FIRM GRIP ON REALITY: Jonah Goldberg: Does Anyone Really Believe Free Market Fundamentalists Are ‘Running the Show’?
February 8, 2020
MORAL ROT AT UC BERKELEY (moved to top with corrected link): UC Berkeley chancellor not ‘interested in blame’ in response student-government chaos. A group of pro-Palestinian students displayed celebratory posters of terrorists who murdered Israeli civilians. A student introduced a resolution to the student government condemning the display. The Palestinian group disrupted the meeting with chants of “Free Palestine.” Here’s what university Chancellor Carol Christ had to say:
“Students who support the Palestinian cause have a right t o celebrate those they see as fighters for that cause, and their rights to express that support are fully protected by our country’s constitution,” she continued. “By the same token, Jewish students have a right to feel dismay and concern after seeing a poster they perceive as honoring those who killed, or attempted to kill, unarmed Jewish civilians. Each side has an equal right to express and have heard their perspective.”
Yes, the students have a “right” to celebrate terrorists who murder Jews, and the chancellor has the “right” to not draw moral equivalence between those who celebrate such terrorists and those who object to such terrorism. And yet she didn’t exercise it. Note, by the way, the use of the weasel word, “perceive.” The terrorists in question did murder Jewish civilians, and suggesting that the Jewish students only “perceive” it that way is a way for Chancellor Christ to evade responsibility for her horrific moral equivalence.
It’s also worth noting that the pro-Palestinian students do NOT have a right to disrupt a student government meeting (which no one seems to deny), or to harass other students (which is in dispute).
February 7, 2020
KILLING THE GOLDEN GOOSE: Northern Virginia has been mopping the floor with DC’s Maryland suburbs, because Virginia’s business climate is so much more favorable. The new Democratic majority in the state legislature, however, seems determined to reverse that, starting with a new, radical antidiscrimination law.
WHY IS THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY SUCH A HIVE OF ANTISEMITISM: Elizabeth Warren slanders AIPAC, and by extension, the American Jewish Community.
January 16, 2020
A QUESTION NO ONE IN THE MSM IS ASKING: Various Democrats are all over the media today saying that the fact that the GAO found that Trump acted illegally re spending appropriated funds means he should be tossed out of office. Does this mean that Obama, whom the GAO found illegally defied Congress in ordering the Defense Department to send five Guantanomo prisoners to Qatar in defiance of duly-enacted legislation prohibited Obama from expending any funds on such action, should have been removed from office as well? If you can find me a Democratic House member or Senator who denounced Obama for that move, I’ll concede that he is sincerely interested in presidential lawfulness and the separation of powers.
BOLSHIE BERNIE: Just came across an interview with Bernie Sanders from The Progressive in 1988, in which he suggests that Castro’s Cuba has a superior economic system to the U.S.:
Q: But apart from the Soviet Union, it seems that in more democratic countries—France, Spain, Italy—socialist parties in power are almost indistinguishable from conservative administrations. Socialism doesn’t seem to be working in those countries either.
Sanders: Fair enough. But take small countries like Norway or Sweden. Give them credit for creating decent health-care systems, decent housing for their citizens. good educational opportunities. media that are of an appreciably higher quality than our own. That may not fit some definitions of socialism, but it’s a significant improvement over what exists in the United States, isn’t it?
And what about Cuba? It’s not a perfect society. I grant, but there aren’t children there going hungry. It’s been more successful than almost any other developing country in providing health care for its people. And the Cuban revolution is only thirty years old. It may get even better.
But don’t get him wrong: “I’m not a communist, so no one has ever heard me defend the Soviet Union, for example, as any kind of model for other countries. I suppose that those people who did see the Soviet Union in that way are having some big problems these days.”
December 15, 2019
THE NEW YORK TIMES TODAY RAN ITS FOURTH DISHONEST HIT PIECE ON TRUMP’S ANTISEMITISM EXECUTIVE ORDER SINCE WEDNESDAY: [UPDATE: I was referring to this article, but there is actually a fifth as well, that starts from this ridiculous premise: “The order is ambiguous as to whether it sees Jews as a distinct nationality or a minority race, but either interpretation aligns with Mr. Trump’s preoccupation with defining, and policing, the boundaries of identity.” For the record, as I’ve been repeating for several days, the order, which follows established Obama and Bush administration precedent, states only that Jews can be victims of discrimination motivated racism, which is hardly debatable. (Surely the author, Max Fisher, has at least heard of the Nazis?)]