POVERTY AND STARVATION (OF HUMANS) IS GOOD FOR THE ENVIRONMENT: You are overlooking the good news from Covid-19!: The world’s citizens have learned to consume less and eat healthier food.

ANOTHER STUDY SHOWING THAT CORONAVIRUS HAS BEEN MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD THAN OFFICIALS TALLIES OF THE INFECTED INDICATE: While L.A. County reports total of 13,816 coronavirus cases, antibody study shows hundreds of thousands more could have had COVID-19 in the past. This means a much lower death rate, and more progress toward herd immunity.

WITH OIL SELLING TODAY AT HISTORIC LOWS, it’s a good time to recall all the “experts” who bought into the “peak oil” nonsense, including Paul Krugman. PK even dismissed the notion that domestic production would perk up if oil prices rose: “Seriously, don’t believe the hype: history says that these things always fall short of expectations.” Uh, huh.

UPDATE: I ain’t just casting stones here. Way back in 2006, well before Krugman picked up the baton, I criticized blogger and purported Mideast expert Juan Cole for spinning an “elaborate, economically illiterate theory” on Israeli and American Mideast policy with “reference to something called ‘peak oil.'”

NEWS YOU CAN USE–IT’S PRETTY SAFE TO BE OUTDOORS: From an interview with an Israeli epidemiologist on Covid-19:

Q. What if someone is out jogging and they’re breathing really hard and they breathe on you? They don’t cough or sneeze, they just exhale in your direction? Is that cause for concern?

A. We usually say you are in real danger if you spend 10 minutes with a person at a distance of less than two meters. So hopefully this guy is running fast enough so that you are not near him for 10 minutes.

That does not mean it is impossible to get infected from his breath. It is possible, but you’d have to be completely unlucky. In a park, or in the open air, the virus would be more diluted. If someone spits out of doors, however, they could infect people.

SOMETIMES, YOU GET WHAT YOU PAY FOR: A couple of weeks ago, I wrote to a professor friend who has written about using prizes to encourage research. I suggested that the government should offer a large prize for whoever invents a coronavirus vaccine, because there will be tremendous pressure for the inventor to not make a profit on its sale, which will dampen the incentive to invent it. Lo and behold, I see the below from JNJ. Call me crazy, but I’d prefer potential vaccine inventors to think that inventing one will be extremely profitable. Incentives and all…

THIS IS WHY NO ONE TRUSTS THE MEDIA (moved to top for update): New York Times:

On March 1, Joe Joyce and his wife, Jane, set sail for Spain on a cruise, flying first to Florida. His adult children — Kevin, Eddie and Kristen Mider — suggested that the impending doom of the coronavirus made this a bad idea. Joe Joyce was 74, a nonsmoker, healthy; four years after he opened his bar he stopped drinking completely. He didn’t see the problem.

“He watched Fox, and believed it was under control,’’ Kristen told me.

That weekend, I took my daughter to Universal Studios Florida. I was keeping up with the news, but no one was saying not to travel. No special precautions were being taken at the airport, on the airplane, at the hotel, or at Universal (I did have some sanitizer in my pocket, but I was apparently ahead of the curve). Both flights roundtrip to Orlando were full.

I had a conference scheduled at a major state university later than month. Well after March 1, we got a note via email that the university had consulted with experts at its medical center, and they were told that there was no reason to cancel the conference (though it was canceled later in the month). A local rabbi I know consulted with leading virus specialists in the area just before Purim on March 9, and they said to go ahead with holiday festivities. The first university to announce it was closing was Stanford, on March 6th.

Responsible reporters would note these sorts of thing, and point out that whatever the family believes, no important institutions or media networks were calling on people to stop traveling (or gathering) when the individual in question set off on his cruise. It turns out that we likely should have started serious social distancing at least a couple of weeks earlier than we did. But to blame our not doing so on “Fox News” is just batty.

UPDATE: The author of the Times article is Ginia Bellafante. In addition to the quote above, she goes on about Fox News coverage that took place *after* the man left on his cruise, which obviously could not have influenced him. Meanwhile, some Twitter sleuths have discovered her tweet below, which was in response to the stock market’s drop the previous day. I think it’s fair at this point to say that Ms. Ballafonte is personally responsible for every Coronavirus death in New York.

UPDATE (From Ed):

ANOTHER UPDATE (FROM GLENN): Yep.

Also:

Advice to journalists: Don’t want people to think of you as garbage? Stop being garbage. If you can.

Plus, from the comments: “On March 1st, Joe Joyce and his wife, Jane, set sail for Spain. On March 2nd New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio was urging New Yorkers to get out and see a play. But yeah, I’d totally blame Fox News.”

(Updated and bumped.)

CAN A PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT EXPEL STUDENTS FOR MAKING A RACIST VIDEO AT HOME THAT HAD NOTHING TO DO WITH THE SCHOOL?: I would think that the First Amendment bans such retaliation based on constitutionally-protected (albeit gross) speech, but the Carrollton City School district seems to disagree. One could argue that allowing the students back on campus would be disruptive, but the schools are closed for the academic year due to Covid-19, and the students are high school seniors. H/T Hans Bader.

IF YOU DECIDE TO SHELL OUT TWENTY BUCKS TO STREAM TROLLS WORLD TOUR: Don’t say I didn’t warn you how terrible it is. I don’t think I’ve ever reviewed a movie at Instapundit. But this one is so bad… And as the father of three kids ages 7 to 14, I’ve seen plenty of kids’ movies, and this is really bottom of the barrel.

YOUR MEDIA ELITE, LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: NBC News anchor confusing a chart of the countries with the most testing with a chart of all countries’ testing. You would think he would have noticed the absence of Japan, the UK, etc.

ANNALS OF IRRESPONSIBLE REPORTING: Washington Post (free link): Grocery Workers are Beginning to Die of Coronavirus.

The reporter tells us that at least four grocery store workers have died from Covid-19. Do we know if they caught the virus at their place of work? The reporter doesn’t say, and probably didn’t even ask. Meanwhile, the reporter never stops to ask whether “at least four” is a sufficiently large number that grocery store workers should be concerned.

So here is some quick math. About 2.5 million Americans work in grocery stores. About one in every 30 thousand Americans has now died of Coronavirus. Taking the simplest route, you would expect approximately 83 grocery, or 2.5 million/30 thousand, grocery store workers to have died of the virus.

If you were doing at least a semi-serious statistical analysis, you would then have to modify the 83 figure by age, preexisting conditions, etc., and almost certainly get a lower tally. But the point is, despite the tenor of the article the fact that at least four grocery store workers have died of the virus doesn’t give you any useful information about whethert being a grocery store worker puts you at special risk.

I’m not saying there isn’t an increased risk, and I do appreciate that the workers are coming to work every day and *potentially* putting themselves at higher risk. I am saying, reporting on “at least four deaths” out of 2.5 million grocery store workers isn’t actionable information. Scare stories like this, that provide no context, with reporters who don’t ask basic questions, are just irresponsible.

UPDATE (FROM GLENN): Why are grocery workers dying? I blame reusable shopping bags! Will no one stop the madness?

SOME IN DC MEASURE THEIR SUCCESS WITH RED TAPE: Hans Bader: Red tape and bureaucratic mistakes thwart fight against coronavirus

A SERIOUS PERSON WOULDN’T LIMIT HIMSELF TO A FRACTION OF THE PLAUSIBLE CANDIDATES: Evaluating the Biden Veepstakes: “Before the coronavirus threat, Biden’s biggest decision was between a moderate choice who would shore up the party’s weaknesses in the Midwest or excite the base, or a more historic, progressive pick. Now his only consideration should be finding someone who is prepared to be president and is capable of demonstrating competence at a time of crisis.” Biden should revoke his stupid promise to choose a woman. With Biden an obviously-declining 77 and a major public health crisis afoot, there is no good reason beyond insipid identity politics to limit oneself to the small pool of women who have the experience to competently take over the presidency on Day 1. Our complicit media has consistently praised Biden for doing so, instead of questioning why an elderly presidential candidate should be dismissing eighty percent or so of the plausible candidates out-of-hand. And if I were Biden, you know who would be looking intriguing to me right now? Bill Gates.

I’M NOT AN EPIDEMIOLOGIST, BUT: Following up on yesterday’s post on the low level of Covid-19 infections in Australia… Hawaii, population 1.5 million, has only 351 confirmed Covid-19 cases, and three deaths, despite Honolulu being a densely-packed urban area and tons of tourist traffic from Asia in December and January. Puerto Rico, population 3.2 million, has only 452 confirmed cases of Covid-19 and 18 deaths, despite a huge amount of traffic between the New York area and the island, and San Juan being a densely-packed city. Like I said, I’m not an epidemiologist, but I’d love to know if someone who is has provided an explanation for these statistics beyond sunshine, humidity, and hot weather. (Note: New Orleans has been consistently hot since March 10, and if that doesn’t slow the spread of the virus, it would definitely throw a monkey wrench into the weather theory, though not necessarily into the “protective nature of Vitamin D” theory, as I suspect residents of San Juan and Honolulu get a lot more sun in the Winter than do residents of New Orleans. P.S. I’m aware that Mardis Gras was likely a “super spreader event,” but if hot weather is protective, the rate of spread in March and April should be slower than in colder climates).

UPDATE: Yes, I know that Guayaquil, Ecuador, right on the equator, has been hard-hit. But conditions in a Third-World country (per capita GPD $6,000) are quite different than the U.S. and Australia, and it’s doubtful in any event that we can get useful data out of their public health system.

HOPEFUL NEWS FROM AUSTRALIA?: According to the Australian government Department of Health site, as yet there is not “widespread community transmission” of Covid-19, and, importantly, “The majority of Australian confirmed cases acquired their infection overseas, including on board cruise ships or associated with recent travel to Europe or the Americas.” Also, only thirty Australians have died from Covid-19 thus far. There is still widespread debate among scientists about how weather/seasonality will affect the spread of Covid-19. But given all the traffic between China and Australia, and the fact that Australia didn’t cut off travel to China until February 1 (and even then initially had many loopholes), one can be hopeful that the relatively mild outbreak of Covid-19 in their Summer reflects a strong seasonal component to the virus.

WHEN MAKING PUBLIC POLICY, SHOULD WE THINK ABOUT ONE HUNDRED THOUSAND DEATHS, OR AN AVERAGE OF A ONE IN THREE THOUSAND CHANCE OF DYING?: Covid-19, the Evil Genius, and How to Think about Societal Risks.

9/11 HASN’T MADE US PREPARED: New York City has identified about twenty thousand cases of Coronavirus (pdf file). That’s everyone who has tested positive. It’s not clear how many of those patients require hospitalization, but it’s almost certainly less than 20% (and probably more like 5%). Let’s use the 20% figure as the worst-case scenario. The media, social and traditional, is telling us that New York City’s hospital system is buckling. If so, it’s buckling under the pressure of at most four thousand new, hospitalized patients. New York, as we know, is, along with Washington, DC, the primary obvious potential terrorist target in the U.S. I would have thought with the threat of biological terrorism, dirty bombs, etc., we’d have contingency plans to expand hospitals capacity by tens of thousands quickly. Apparently not. If four thousand or fewer new hospital patients in a week or so can bring down the entire NYC hospital system, we have a serious preparedness problem.

UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS SKYROCKET: I’m going to lose it if I hear one more left-wing pundit suggest that being concerned about the economic toll of widespread shutdowns reflects concern about “protecting corporate profits” instead of worrying about human suffering.

A CHEAP AND EFFECTIVE WAY TO LIMIT THE SPREAD OF COVID-19: I’m puzzled as to why we are shutting down large parts of the economy, while not doing simpler, much less expensive things. Why are we not on a crash course to produce hospital masks, and ask or require people to wear them when they go out to places where they may infect people? Basic masks don’t protect you much from the virus [though it will stop you from touching your mouth and nose, which is its own advantage], but if you are carrying the virus and don’t know it, it will prevent your cough or sneeze from spreading it to the person sitting/standing next to you. It’s one of the reasons, as I understand it, that infection rates in Asia, where mask-wearing is common, have plummeted. Below: South Korea.

POSSIBLE EXCELLENT NEWS ON COVID-19: This morning, a friend forwarded an abstract of a study from the Center for Evidence-Based Medicine estimating that the CFR (case fatality rate–the number of reported deaths per number of reported cases) is only .1%, i.e., one out of a thousand. I was going to pass it on earlier, but I really couldn’t make heads or tails of how they came up with that figure, so I emailed them, and they updated their post with this:

How do we arrive at this CFR figure?

The current COVID outbreak seems to be following previous pandemics in that initial CFRs start high and then trend downward. In Wuhan, for instance, the CFR has gone down from 17% in the initial phase to near 1% in the late stage. Current testing strategies are also not capturing everybody: at least 50% on Diamond Princess were asymptomatic who usually wouldn’t get a test; in South Korea, considerable numbers who tested positive were also asymptomatics. Asymptomatic people and mild cases are likely driving the rapid worldwide spread. Early CFR rates are subject to selection bias as more severe cases are tested – generally those in the hospital settings or those with more severe symptoms. Mortality in children seems to be near zero (unlike flu) which will drive down the CFR significantly. In Swine flu, the CFR was fivefold less than the lowest estimate in the 1st ten weeks (0.1%)

Therefore, to estimate the CFR, we used the lowest estimate, currently Germany’s 0.25%, and halved this based on the assumption that half the cases go undetected by testing and none of this group dies. Our assumptions, however, do not account for some exceptional cases, as in Italy, where the population is older, smoking rates are higher and antibiotic resistance is the highest in Europe, which all can act to increase the CFR. It is also not clear if the presence of other circulating influenza illnesses acts to increase the CFR and whether certain populations (e.g., those with heart conditions) are more at increased risk.

GREAT MOMENTS IN ALUMNI RELATIONS, BRANDEIS UNIVERSITY EDITION: [Note that Brandeis is a Jewish-sponsored university, with a historically majority-Jewish student body.]