BUT HE’S NOT TRUMP, SO THAT’S OK: Media darling Cuomo mishandled COVID-19, killing thousands.

THROUGH THE LOOKING-GLASS, AFFIRMATIVE ACTION EDITION: Are Spaniards “Persons of Spanish Culture”? A strange affirmative action classification in Boston suggested that the answer is no.

FLASHBACK, 1992: Apparently, faculty claiming phony Native American status was common at Harvard. Of course, Harvard made up for its insensitivity in this regard a few years later by hiring … Elizabeth Warren, and touting her as their first Native American member of the law school faculty.
(Source: Detroit News, April 12, 1992)

THE MODERN AMERICAN LAW OF RACE: Did you ever wonder why people from Spain are considered members of an official American minority group (“Hispanic”) but Greeks, Iranians, Armenians, and Arabs are not? Or why we lump groups that have nothing in common linguistically, culturally, religiously, or appearance-wise into the “Asian” category?

Did you ever wonder whether ethnic/racial self-identification for affirmative action purposes is ever challenged, and if so what criteria courts and administrative agencies use to determine whether someone could lawfully claim such status?

You can find the answers to these questions and more in my latest academic article, “The Modern American Law of Race,” is available for download here.

A LAWLESS FEDERAL RESERVE: The Fed’s experiment with junk bonds is about to begin.

Critics argue the Fed is overstepping its mandate by purchasing corporate bonds — a step it never took during the 2008 financial crisis. Gundlach said the Fed is using a “shell company set up to circumvent” the Federal Reserve Act, which created the US central bank.

The Federal Reserve Act prohibits the Fed from buying corporate assets. To get around that problem, the Fed is setting up a special purpose vehicle managed by BlackRock (BLK) to do the buying. The central bank cited “unusual and exigent circumstances” that authorizes the Fed under Section 13-3 of the Federal Reserve Act to conduct “broad-based” lending facilities. Still, the Fed will be the one calling the shots. The Fed website said BlackRock will be “acting at the sole direction of the New York Fed on behalf of the facilities.” “It’s terrible what they are doing. The Fed did a complete runaround the Federal Reserve Act,” said Boockvar, the Bleakley Advisory Group CIO.

I’m rather concerned that any price signals the market would be giving out about creditworthiness are going to be smothered by the Fed, but the Fed acting well-beyond its legal authority is a much greater long-term danger.

ABOUT THAT STUDY PURPORTING TO SHOW THAT COVID-19 TAKES AN AVERAGE OF TEN YEARS OFF A VICTIM’S LIFE: This study got a lot of attention in the U.S. media, but it has a glaringly obvious flaw. As an online commenter on the paper (which has not yet been peer-reviewed) wrote to the authors, “you are implicitly assuming that the people who are dying are more or less representative of the average, which seems like a major assumption that, if untrue, would render your conclusions pretty useless. I hope I’m missing something here because it would seem far more intuitive to assume that people who are dying are the most vulnerable of their respective cohorts.”

Indeed, not only would it be intuitive, but we know that a wildly disproportionate percentage of the fatalities have been residents of nursing homes. Residents of nursing homes are there because they are quite ill and can’t take care of themselves. There is zero reason to think that a nursing home resident with disease X has a similar life expectancy to the average person of the same age with disease X, and there is every reason to believe (a) that their life expectancy is lower; and (b) that because they are sicker, if they catch Coronavirus they are more likely to succumb to Covid-19. One would expect that even “otherwise-healthy” people who succumb to Covid-19 would, on average, be more likely to have an undiagnosed health issue than those who don’t, and thus have a lower life expectancy. When called on this by commenters, the lead author responded that the authors were aware of these issues, but “we would be surprised if this had a large enough effect to result in a substantial decrement in life expectancy.” This strikes me as being so attached to one’s thesis that one is willfully blind to its fatal flaw.

THE BALI MYSTERY: Bali had five direct flights a day week from Wuhan through mid-January. Why does it have so few cases of Covid-19?

NEWS YOU CAN USE: In light of people’s plans being upended by the Coronavirus, some law schools are extending the application deadline for this Fall’s entering class.

POVERTY AND STARVATION (OF HUMANS) IS GOOD FOR THE ENVIRONMENT: You are overlooking the good news from Covid-19!: The world’s citizens have learned to consume less and eat healthier food.

ANOTHER STUDY SHOWING THAT CORONAVIRUS HAS BEEN MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD THAN OFFICIALS TALLIES OF THE INFECTED INDICATE: While L.A. County reports total of 13,816 coronavirus cases, antibody study shows hundreds of thousands more could have had COVID-19 in the past. This means a much lower death rate, and more progress toward herd immunity.

WITH OIL SELLING TODAY AT HISTORIC LOWS, it’s a good time to recall all the “experts” who bought into the “peak oil” nonsense, including Paul Krugman. PK even dismissed the notion that domestic production would perk up if oil prices rose: “Seriously, don’t believe the hype: history says that these things always fall short of expectations.” Uh, huh.

UPDATE: I ain’t just casting stones here. Way back in 2006, well before Krugman picked up the baton, I criticized blogger and purported Mideast expert Juan Cole for spinning an “elaborate, economically illiterate theory” on Israeli and American Mideast policy with “reference to something called ‘peak oil.'”

NEWS YOU CAN USE–IT’S PRETTY SAFE TO BE OUTDOORS: From an interview with an Israeli epidemiologist on Covid-19:

Q. What if someone is out jogging and they’re breathing really hard and they breathe on you? They don’t cough or sneeze, they just exhale in your direction? Is that cause for concern?

A. We usually say you are in real danger if you spend 10 minutes with a person at a distance of less than two meters. So hopefully this guy is running fast enough so that you are not near him for 10 minutes.

That does not mean it is impossible to get infected from his breath. It is possible, but you’d have to be completely unlucky. In a park, or in the open air, the virus would be more diluted. If someone spits out of doors, however, they could infect people.

SOMETIMES, YOU GET WHAT YOU PAY FOR: A couple of weeks ago, I wrote to a professor friend who has written about using prizes to encourage research. I suggested that the government should offer a large prize for whoever invents a coronavirus vaccine, because there will be tremendous pressure for the inventor to not make a profit on its sale, which will dampen the incentive to invent it. Lo and behold, I see the below from JNJ. Call me crazy, but I’d prefer potential vaccine inventors to think that inventing one will be extremely profitable. Incentives and all…

THIS IS WHY NO ONE TRUSTS THE MEDIA (moved to top for update): New York Times:

On March 1, Joe Joyce and his wife, Jane, set sail for Spain on a cruise, flying first to Florida. His adult children — Kevin, Eddie and Kristen Mider — suggested that the impending doom of the coronavirus made this a bad idea. Joe Joyce was 74, a nonsmoker, healthy; four years after he opened his bar he stopped drinking completely. He didn’t see the problem.

“He watched Fox, and believed it was under control,’’ Kristen told me.

That weekend, I took my daughter to Universal Studios Florida. I was keeping up with the news, but no one was saying not to travel. No special precautions were being taken at the airport, on the airplane, at the hotel, or at Universal (I did have some sanitizer in my pocket, but I was apparently ahead of the curve). Both flights roundtrip to Orlando were full.

I had a conference scheduled at a major state university later than month. Well after March 1, we got a note via email that the university had consulted with experts at its medical center, and they were told that there was no reason to cancel the conference (though it was canceled later in the month). A local rabbi I know consulted with leading virus specialists in the area just before Purim on March 9, and they said to go ahead with holiday festivities. The first university to announce it was closing was Stanford, on March 6th.

Responsible reporters would note these sorts of thing, and point out that whatever the family believes, no important institutions or media networks were calling on people to stop traveling (or gathering) when the individual in question set off on his cruise. It turns out that we likely should have started serious social distancing at least a couple of weeks earlier than we did. But to blame our not doing so on “Fox News” is just batty.

UPDATE: The author of the Times article is Ginia Bellafante. In addition to the quote above, she goes on about Fox News coverage that took place *after* the man left on his cruise, which obviously could not have influenced him. Meanwhile, some Twitter sleuths have discovered her tweet below, which was in response to the stock market’s drop the previous day. I think it’s fair at this point to say that Ms. Ballafonte is personally responsible for every Coronavirus death in New York.

UPDATE (From Ed):

ANOTHER UPDATE (FROM GLENN): Yep.

Also:

Advice to journalists: Don’t want people to think of you as garbage? Stop being garbage. If you can.

Plus, from the comments: “On March 1st, Joe Joyce and his wife, Jane, set sail for Spain. On March 2nd New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio was urging New Yorkers to get out and see a play. But yeah, I’d totally blame Fox News.”

(Updated and bumped.)

CAN A PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT EXPEL STUDENTS FOR MAKING A RACIST VIDEO AT HOME THAT HAD NOTHING TO DO WITH THE SCHOOL?: I would think that the First Amendment bans such retaliation based on constitutionally-protected (albeit gross) speech, but the Carrollton City School district seems to disagree. One could argue that allowing the students back on campus would be disruptive, but the schools are closed for the academic year due to Covid-19, and the students are high school seniors. H/T Hans Bader.

IF YOU DECIDE TO SHELL OUT TWENTY BUCKS TO STREAM TROLLS WORLD TOUR: Don’t say I didn’t warn you how terrible it is. I don’t think I’ve ever reviewed a movie at Instapundit. But this one is so bad… And as the father of three kids ages 7 to 14, I’ve seen plenty of kids’ movies, and this is really bottom of the barrel.

YOUR MEDIA ELITE, LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: NBC News anchor confusing a chart of the countries with the most testing with a chart of all countries’ testing. You would think he would have noticed the absence of Japan, the UK, etc.

ANNALS OF IRRESPONSIBLE REPORTING: Washington Post (free link): Grocery Workers are Beginning to Die of Coronavirus.

The reporter tells us that at least four grocery store workers have died from Covid-19. Do we know if they caught the virus at their place of work? The reporter doesn’t say, and probably didn’t even ask. Meanwhile, the reporter never stops to ask whether “at least four” is a sufficiently large number that grocery store workers should be concerned.

So here is some quick math. About 2.5 million Americans work in grocery stores. About one in every 30 thousand Americans has now died of Coronavirus. Taking the simplest route, you would expect approximately 83 grocery, or 2.5 million/30 thousand, grocery store workers to have died of the virus.

If you were doing at least a semi-serious statistical analysis, you would then have to modify the 83 figure by age, preexisting conditions, etc., and almost certainly get a lower tally. But the point is, despite the tenor of the article the fact that at least four grocery store workers have died of the virus doesn’t give you any useful information about whethert being a grocery store worker puts you at special risk.

I’m not saying there isn’t an increased risk, and I do appreciate that the workers are coming to work every day and *potentially* putting themselves at higher risk. I am saying, reporting on “at least four deaths” out of 2.5 million grocery store workers isn’t actionable information. Scare stories like this, that provide no context, with reporters who don’t ask basic questions, are just irresponsible.

UPDATE (FROM GLENN): Why are grocery workers dying? I blame reusable shopping bags! Will no one stop the madness?

SOME IN DC MEASURE THEIR SUCCESS WITH RED TAPE: Hans Bader: Red tape and bureaucratic mistakes thwart fight against coronavirus

A SERIOUS PERSON WOULDN’T LIMIT HIMSELF TO A FRACTION OF THE PLAUSIBLE CANDIDATES: Evaluating the Biden Veepstakes: “Before the coronavirus threat, Biden’s biggest decision was between a moderate choice who would shore up the party’s weaknesses in the Midwest or excite the base, or a more historic, progressive pick. Now his only consideration should be finding someone who is prepared to be president and is capable of demonstrating competence at a time of crisis.” Biden should revoke his stupid promise to choose a woman. With Biden an obviously-declining 77 and a major public health crisis afoot, there is no good reason beyond insipid identity politics to limit oneself to the small pool of women who have the experience to competently take over the presidency on Day 1. Our complicit media has consistently praised Biden for doing so, instead of questioning why an elderly presidential candidate should be dismissing eighty percent or so of the plausible candidates out-of-hand. And if I were Biden, you know who would be looking intriguing to me right now? Bill Gates.

I’M NOT AN EPIDEMIOLOGIST, BUT: Following up on yesterday’s post on the low level of Covid-19 infections in Australia… Hawaii, population 1.5 million, has only 351 confirmed Covid-19 cases, and three deaths, despite Honolulu being a densely-packed urban area and tons of tourist traffic from Asia in December and January. Puerto Rico, population 3.2 million, has only 452 confirmed cases of Covid-19 and 18 deaths, despite a huge amount of traffic between the New York area and the island, and San Juan being a densely-packed city. Like I said, I’m not an epidemiologist, but I’d love to know if someone who is has provided an explanation for these statistics beyond sunshine, humidity, and hot weather. (Note: New Orleans has been consistently hot since March 10, and if that doesn’t slow the spread of the virus, it would definitely throw a monkey wrench into the weather theory, though not necessarily into the “protective nature of Vitamin D” theory, as I suspect residents of San Juan and Honolulu get a lot more sun in the Winter than do residents of New Orleans. P.S. I’m aware that Mardis Gras was likely a “super spreader event,” but if hot weather is protective, the rate of spread in March and April should be slower than in colder climates).

UPDATE: Yes, I know that Guayaquil, Ecuador, right on the equator, has been hard-hit. But conditions in a Third-World country (per capita GPD $6,000) are quite different than the U.S. and Australia, and it’s doubtful in any event that we can get useful data out of their public health system.

HOPEFUL NEWS FROM AUSTRALIA?: According to the Australian government Department of Health site, as yet there is not “widespread community transmission” of Covid-19, and, importantly, “The majority of Australian confirmed cases acquired their infection overseas, including on board cruise ships or associated with recent travel to Europe or the Americas.” Also, only thirty Australians have died from Covid-19 thus far. There is still widespread debate among scientists about how weather/seasonality will affect the spread of Covid-19. But given all the traffic between China and Australia, and the fact that Australia didn’t cut off travel to China until February 1 (and even then initially had many loopholes), one can be hopeful that the relatively mild outbreak of Covid-19 in their Summer reflects a strong seasonal component to the virus.

WHEN MAKING PUBLIC POLICY, SHOULD WE THINK ABOUT ONE HUNDRED THOUSAND DEATHS, OR AN AVERAGE OF A ONE IN THREE THOUSAND CHANCE OF DYING?: Covid-19, the Evil Genius, and How to Think about Societal Risks.

9/11 HASN’T MADE US PREPARED: New York City has identified about twenty thousand cases of Coronavirus (pdf file). That’s everyone who has tested positive. It’s not clear how many of those patients require hospitalization, but it’s almost certainly less than 20% (and probably more like 5%). Let’s use the 20% figure as the worst-case scenario. The media, social and traditional, is telling us that New York City’s hospital system is buckling. If so, it’s buckling under the pressure of at most four thousand new, hospitalized patients. New York, as we know, is, along with Washington, DC, the primary obvious potential terrorist target in the U.S. I would have thought with the threat of biological terrorism, dirty bombs, etc., we’d have contingency plans to expand hospitals capacity by tens of thousands quickly. Apparently not. If four thousand or fewer new hospital patients in a week or so can bring down the entire NYC hospital system, we have a serious preparedness problem.

UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS SKYROCKET: I’m going to lose it if I hear one more left-wing pundit suggest that being concerned about the economic toll of widespread shutdowns reflects concern about “protecting corporate profits” instead of worrying about human suffering.