Author Archive: Austin Bay

EMBRACE THE SUCK ALERT: Pre-order as a belated stocking stuffer. I’m told the paperback will be shipping the first week of January. Give your favorite Beltway Clerk a copy — if you have a favorite Beltway Clerk.

E FUELS G: A U.S. Navy F/A-18E Super Hornet refuels an E/A-18G Growler. The USS Nimitz Carrier Strike Group is conducting exercises in the Pacific Ocean.

LOADING A DAMAGED DESTROYER: A “heavy lift” transport ship prepares to carry the damaged USS Fitzgerald from Japan to the U.S.

NORTH KOREAN PARASITES: I know, “parasites” was a common Stalinist Communist accusation. But this article is about real parasites — parasitic worms in human intestines, specifically unfortunate human beings living in the Stalinist Communist hellhole of North Korea.

“An estimated 5 million people in North Korea have intestinal roundworms. That’s 20 percent of the population,” said Dr. Peter Hotez, the dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor.

Here’s the sensational news hook: Doctors found worm parasites “while repairing intestinal damage from multiple bullet wounds” sustained by a 24 year old North Korean soldier as he escaped from North Korea. The defecting soldier was apparently in a unit assigned to the UN’s Joint Security Area — which means he is supposed to be getting decent food and better health care. By the way, Stalinist Communist North Korea has centralized national health care. Bernie Sanders, take note.

MORE FOR SENATOR SANDERS: North Korea has “songbun.” Songbun is “a system of ascribed status…Based on the political, social, and economic background of one’s direct ancestors as well as the behavior of their relatives, songbun is used to determine whether an individual is trusted with responsibilities, is given opportunities within North Korea, or even receives adequate food.”

Like, hey Bernie, Kim Jong Un starves deplorables, at least people his regime deem deplorable, so to speak. Does this callous destruction of human lives lead you rethink socialism?

This complex topic is “To be continued.”

U.S. ARMY TRAINING EXERCISE AT GRAF: A late fall field exercise in Grafenwoehr, Germany. A fine photo that stirs many memories. However, memory conflicts with the photo: there’s too much sunlight, it isn’t drizzling and you can’t see the mud.

BATTLE OF MOSUL CASUALTY UPDATE: Since 2014 when the Islamic State seized the city, I’ve written several columns about Mosul and the subsequent campaign to liberate it from ISIS. StrategyPage has also covered it in detail.

Over the last few months the blog Musings On Iraq has had several excellent posts about Mosul and the campaign to liberate northern Iraq. The latest updates the toll in dead and wounded. City fights are killers — street and house to house fighting are “casualty heavy.”

Understand that the UN’s casualty figures are incomplete. Grave sites continue to be discovered. Also note the discussion about the “expected” number of wounded, given the number of confirmed fatalities.

First, the United Nations’ Assistance Mission for Iraq and Human Rights Organization put out a report on the human toll of the Mosul campaign. It had 92 unreported incidents that led to 678 deaths and 518 wounded. That included 396 executions by the Islamic State, 194 casualties caused by Iraqi air strikes and artillery, and another 11 injured by Coalition air power. That brought the total number of dead during the operation to 21,224 and 30,996 wounded. 17,404 of the former and 24,580 of the latter occurred in Mosul. The new numbers still highlighted the fact that there are many more undocumented casualties as the wounded should be four to six times higher than the fatalities figure. Even if you subtract the 5,325 people that were executed by the Islamic State that would still mean there should be 60,000-90,000 injured from the fighting.

The following is a breakdown of casualties by cause. Coalition air strikes accounted for 4.2% of the casualties in Ninewa and 5.1% of those inside Mosul. IS executions led to 10.1% of the casualties in Ninewa and 6.6% in Mosul. 11.8% of the dead and wounded in Ninewa and 14.3% of the ones in Mosul were caused by Iraqi air power or artillery.

Read the entire post.

RELATED: StrategyPage’s detailed report on the offensive in western Iraq against the Islamic State. (Scroll down to “The Western Offensive” section.) This report from June addressed some of the bitter fighting within the city of Mosul. It also speculated that 1,400 Islamic State fighters had been killed in Mosul (through mid-June 2017). Note the Musings On Iraq figure for Islamic State fighters killed in Mosul is 1,892 (through the end of the battle). That means the June 2017 estimate was a solid estimate. It indicates that initial coalition battle reports and enemy casualty estimates were reasonably accurate. That isn’t always the case.

BOMBER REFUELING: A B-1B gets a drink over rugged Southern California terrain.

THE WAGES OF BARNEY FRANK AND ELIZABETH WARREN: A Wall Street Journal op-ed by a former Barney Frank staffer, Dennis Shaul, bewails a great mistake by the Democrats: the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB).

Richard Cordray’s resignation as director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau provides a great opportunity for President Trump to appoint a new director who can undo an unfortunate legacy of bureaucratic overreach and political bias. More important going forward is what we have learned from our experience with the CFPB to prevent future similar missteps.

The first lesson is that Congress should never again create an “independent” agency with a sole director, particularly one not subject to the congressional appropriations process. Under the law, the CFPB—unlike the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Federal Communications Commission, the Federal Trade Commission and other independent agencies—is funded by the Federal Reserve, a move specifically designed to avoid congressional oversight.

I had the privilege of working as an aide to then-Rep. Barney Frank, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee when the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010, which created the CFPB, was written. I realized that no bill is ever perfect and the CFPB would have its imperfections. The authors wanted the bureau to be a fair arbiter of protecting consumers, instead of what it has become—a politically biased regulatory dictator and a political steppingstone for its sole director, who is now expected to run for governor of Ohio.

An independent federal agency should be nonpartisan. A bipartisan commission on the model of the SEC and FCC would allow for better and more evenhanded decision-making. To show how partisan the CFPB became under Mr. Cordray’s leadership, not one of the agency’s employees made a contribution to Donald Trump’s campaign, while a multitude contributed to Hillary Clinton. The new director will have a partisan staff.

Yes, Trump’s in charge, not Hillary. Tsk. The essay goes on to list several egregious examples of CFPB overreach.

This one, for example:

The CFPB, like other agencies, collects fines and fees. Astonishingly, Congress does not require them to be transferred to the federal Treasury. Mr. Cordray has boasted of collecting billions of dollars on behalf of consumers, but portions of that money ultimately go to favored consumer groups—a continuing problem of ideological preference.

Elizabeth “Fauxcahontas” Warren helped create and build this hideous government monster. Yes,”a politically biased regulatory dictator.” Tsk again.

TRUMP VERSUS THE DEEP REGULATORY STATE: Unfortunately the Wall Street Journal op-ed by Christopher DeMuth is behind the pay wall. But it’s a fine essay and worth quoting at length.

Federal regulation has been growing mightily since the early 1970s, powered by statutes that delegate Congress’s lawmaking authority to mission-driven executive agencies. Beginning in 2008, the executive state achieved autonomy. The Bush administration during the financial crisis, and the Obama administration in normal times, decreed major policies on their own, without congressional authorization and sometimes even in defiance of statutory law.

President Trump might have been expected to continue the trend. As a candidate, he had railed against imperious Washington and promised to clear regulatory impediments to energy development and job creation. Yet he also was an avid protectionist, sounded sometimes like an antitrust populist, and had little to say about regulatory programs like those of the Federal Communications Commission and the Food and Drug Administration. He was contemptuous of Congress and admiring of President Obama’s unilateral methods. Clearly, this was to be a results-oriented, personality-centered presidency.

The record so far has been radically different. With some exceptions (such as business as usual on ethanol), and putting aside a few heavy-handed tweets (such as raising the idea of revoking broadcast licenses from purveyors of “fake news”), President Trump has proved to be a full-spectrum deregulator. His administration has been punctilious about the institutional prerogatives of Congress and the courts. Today there is a serious prospect of restoring the constitutional status quo ante and reversing what seemed to be an inexorable regulatory expansion…

The essay goes on to say Trump has appointed qualified, reform-oriented agency leaders (a first indicator that he’s serious). He has turned away from “unilateral lawmaking” (a second indicator). Unilateral lawmaking is a diplomatic term for Obama’s questionable or blatantly unconstitutional executive orders (like spending “billions without a congressional appropriation to subsidize insurance plans on the ObamaCare exchanges”).

Finally:

A third indicator is the introduction of regulatory budgeting, which sounds tedious but is potentially revolutionary. The idea goes back to the late 1970s, when the new health, safety and environmental agencies were first issuing rules that required private businesses and individuals to spend tens of millions of dollars or more. It seemed anomalous that this should be free of the disciplines of taxing, appropriating and budgeting that applied to direct expenditures. Jimmy Carter’s commerce secretary, Juanita Kreps, proposed a regulatory budget as a good-government measure; Sen. Lloyd Bentsen (D., Texas) introduced legislation; and several academics (myself included) worked out the theory and practicalities in congressional reports and journal articles.

The idea never went anywhere.

Well, it never went anywhere until now.

LCAC IN THE MIST: Landing Craft, Air Cushion in an amphibious assault exercise.

FINALLY CATCHING A BREAK: Humans are compassionate animals. Scientists have discovered “kindness and care is much more widespread.”

Yes, there is evidence of interpersonal violence in our ancient history. But actually there is far less of it than one might assume. There is, in fact, far more evidence of interpersonal care: of people who have tended to the injured and ensured that the sick or lame were kept alive. This tendency—for kindness, compassion, and care—is far more unique to the human species than our tendency to lash out. Many animals respond to threats by fighting back. Very few animals tend to their wounded friends, and only humans do it consistently.

Which leaves me wondering — are Democrats tending to Al Franken’s wounds?

THE ISLAMIC STATE’S OIL BUSINESS: A detailed analysis of Islamic State oil production, from the last six months of 2014 to this year.

How much ISIL received per barrel from the brokers and smugglers became known gradually as information could be extracted from those sources. It apparently averaged about $25 per barrel meaning that ISIL obtained about $40-45 million a month in 2014 from this source. In 2015 that fell to $20-30 million and in 2016 it was $10-15 million in 2016. In 2017 it was down to $5 million or less per month and this decline was verified by ISIL prisoners, defectors and deserters through that period as well as data provided by civilians escaping ISIL controlled territory as well as those few who managed to use cell phones or Internet access to communicate from ISIL territory in that period. The reduced income meant ISIL could not pay its personnel or buy essential supplies from smugglers. These economic woes played a major role in ISIL losing control of the territory it ruled during that period.

Read the entire update.

WHISKEY AND THE MILITARY: Liquor ration update.

Whiskey, as any enlistee will tell you, is popular among America’s fighting forces. Military installations’ drinks shops (“Class 6” stores) are stocked with a galaxy of intoxicating drinks — beer, spirits, wines — but whiskey is especially popular. And it isn’t just any whiskey — it’s the American-made bourbons, ryes and Tennessee whiskeys that really move off the shelves.

Certainly, the popularity of whiskey among soldiers, sailors, airmen and marines can be explained partly as a reflection of American taste in general. Americans purchased more than 30 million cases of American whiskey last year, according to the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States.

But for military men and women, whiskey holds an additional appeal beyond its glorious amber color, robust flavor and mood-alleviating powers — it may even be more American than apple pie (which seems to have been invented in England). Whiskey has been with the America’s armed forces since the earliest days of the republic.

More:

Gen. George Washington, who was fond of beer and all sorts of drink, nonetheless felt something heartier was required. “The benefits arising from the moderate use of strong Liquor have been experienced in all armies, and are not to be disputed,” wrote Washington to John Hancock, then president of the Congress. Washington directed that each soldier be issued a gill — 4 ounces — of whiskey each day, and later directed field commanders to reward valor with additional rations.

Read the entire article.

BOOTS ON THE GROUND BATTLING THE ISLAMIC STATE: A U.S. Army artillery unit shells Islamic State fighters in positions near al-Qaim, Iraq. The U.S. unit is supporting Iraqi forces. Obama said he wouldn’t put American boots on the ground in his coalition war against the Islamic State. Obama lied. The artillerymen are wearing boots.

RELATED: As this StrategyPage update notes, the Islamic State pulled out of the town of al-Qaim in late May. (See the May 22 post.)

A VETERANS DAY WEEKEND PHOTO PORTFOLIO:(bumped)

A few photos from StrategyPage’s military photo gallery, some sobering, some entertaining, all showing US personnel doing their duty. Photos date from 2004 to 2017.

A Marine vacation in Djibouti, 2012. (OK, it’s not a vacation.)

Army reservist in a night fire exercise, 2013.

An Army Green Beret salute at altitude, 2015.

An area recon mission aboard an M1A1 Abrams in Iraq, 2004.

Marines stop a suicide truck bomber near Iraq-Syria border, 2006. (Fine photo.)

A Navy carrier group in the Pacific sends a message, 2017.

Navy sailors man a 25mm Bushmaster, 2014.

Marines and sailors aboard a USAF C-17, enroute to Afghanistan, 2012.

USAF F-15E refueling at night over Afghanistan, 2011. (A tricky operation — and a fine photo that gives you sense of just how intricate an operation it is.)

USAF combat rescue airmen in Afghanistan prepare to land their HH-60G Pave Hawk, 2010.

US Coast Guard cutter interdicts a drug smuggling semi-submersible, 2015. (This photo tells the story.)

One of our favorites: USAF bomber trifecta over Guam, 2016. Like the USN carrier strike group photo, it’s a message.

MARINES LAND ON OKINAWA: The photo was taken during an exercise conducted November 2. The vehicle in the background is an Amphibious Assault Vehicle (AAVP-7A1, which carries personnel). Here’s one “swimming”— this page also has background data on the vehicle.

ON DEEP BLUE WATER: A USN guided missile destroyer crossing the Atlantic Ocean.

AFTER THE DEMISE OF THE ISLAMIC STATE: Who controls Syria?

It is basically a showdown between Iran (which has been at war with Israel since the 1980s) and Israel (which does not want Iranian military forces on its Syrian border under any circumstances). Iran is also at war with Saudi Arabia and its Sunni Arab allies. Not surprisingly the Saudis and Israel have been cooperating more since 2001 because of this shared threat.

Read the entire post.