Author Archive: Austin Bay

ANCHORAGE IN THE INDIAN OCEAN: The USS Anchorage and the Indian Navy destroyer INS Rajput participate in a “cooperative deployment.” Now, dear readers, can you name the East Asian country whose capital is Beijing that really doesn’t want to see this photo and more like it?

RELATED: Chapter Three, Cocktails from Hell. “The Dragon Revives: Great Power Collision in the South China Sea.”

BUFF SUNRISE: The sun rises behind a B-52H Stratofortress at Minot Air Force Base, N.D., December 12, 2018. How many of you recall the old Cold War phrase regarding the day the sun rises twice?

CHINA: Bribing Big Brother.

In December, for the first time since February 2016, Chinese factory activity declined. That alone was enough to cause stock markets worldwide to continue their sharp declines because the factory slowdown was more evidence that the entire Chinese economy was hitting a rough patch. It was also confirmed that Chinese GDP growth in 2018 was 6.5 percent and many economic indicators continue declining while those in the United States are growing. This is a reminder that the current trade war with the United States favors the Americans for many reasons that Chinese leaders cannot ignore. China has hit economic slumps since the 1990s, usually the result of economic problems in the West. But now the cause is China because of a lot of bad decisions that are now catching up with the Chinese leadership that made all the mistakes in the first place. Years of tolerating corruption and ignoring the growth of bad loans (that were at the basis of much corruption) means that just borrowing more money to give the economy a boost will not work.

Scroll down for some interesting comments on Russia’s relationship with China and how “money talks in different dialects.”

JUST LEAVING: An EA-18G Growler launches from the flight deck of the aircraft carrier USS John C. Stennis.

MACARTHUR’S COALITION: Another informative Dr. A. A. Nofi review. Title: MacArthur’s Coalition: US and Australian Military Operations in the Southwest Pacific Area, 1942-1945.

Long quote but indicative of the book’s worth:

In this new account of Allied command and operations in the Southwest Pacific, Prof. Dean (University of Western Australia) offers far more coverage of the Australian side of things than is commonly found in American treatments.

Dean makes a good case that MacArthur’s ego, his meddlesome command style, and his disdain for Australian troops and officers, attitudes largely shared by most of the general’s Americans-only staff, often hampered Allied operations, leading to failures and unnecessary casualties. Nor is Dean unaware of negative attitudes and shortcomings on the Australian side, and he also reminds us that no one – American, Australian, or British – anticipated the need for multinational commands before the war. While Allied forces in Europe were able to develop effective combined staffing and planning processes, things didn’t work out that well in the Southwest Pacific, largely due to personality issues, and so many errors were made, and not all corrected.

I skip ahead but here’s the sign off:

A volume in the Kansas series “Modern War Studies”, MacArthur’s Coalition is an excellent read for anyone interested in the Pacific War or in command problems in coalition warfare.

Like it or not, the 21st century is an era of coalition warfare. But so were WW2 and the Cold War. Good reasons to read Dr. Nofi’s review.

CONTAINER CARGO CULT: Residents of the Dutch islands of Terschelling and Vlieland are having a grand time treasure hunting. A container ship lost up to 270 containers in a storm. Now merchandise is washing up on local beaches.

The Dutch Coast Guard said up to 270 containers had fallen off the Panamanian-flagged MSC ZOE, one of the world’s biggest container ships, in rough weather near the German island of Borkum and floated southwest toward Dutch waters. …Dutch media reported that local treasure hunters had found an array of items from containers whose contents had spilled, including light bulbs, car parts, Ikea furniture, clothing and toys.

Some containers are still floating in the sea and present a hazard to ships. The article notes that it’s “unclear if the goods were water-damaged” but the locals say they enjoy scavenging. A short report worth reading.

A BRADLEY IN THE DEFENSE: A 1st Cavalry Division M3 Bradley Fighting Vehicle awaits an attack by “opposing forces” during an exercise at Hohenfels Training Area, Germany.

CHINA DEPLOYS NEW RADARS AND SURVEILLANCE EQUIPMENT IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA: Beijing continues its South China Sea imperialism and ups the military ante.

From the News.com.au report:

China has installed a new platform in the Paracel Islands of the South China Sea, with satellite images revealing Beijing’s continuing quest for power in the disputed area.

Recent satellite imagery shows a new structure that appears to be anchored on the north edge of the Bombay Reef, with solar panels and a radome (a dome protecting radar or other equipment) on top.

According to the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, the dome appears to be an “Ocean E-Station”, a component of a larger “Blue Ocean Information Network” which the Chinese government is developing to aid its “exploration, exploitation and control” of the region. Judging by the dates of comparative satellite images, the dome was set up sometime between April and July this year.

More:

The AMTI report suggests it’s part of a larger effort to “informationise” the maritime environment — in other words, to enhance the understanding of how to exploit and control the oceans by means of information technology.

Persistent technological surveillance may also decrease the need for ongoing patrolling by fisheries and navy vessels.

This could be especially useful for the Chinese government, considering the ongoing risk of conflict with competing nations in the disputed region.

More:

As the Ocean E-Stations are passive systems, their legal status is unclear. But an AMTI report says the most likely possibility — given Bombay Reef’s strategic location — is that the systems are military in nature.

“The reef is directly adjacent to the major shipping lanes that run between the Paracels and the Spratly Islands to the south, making it an attractive location for a sensor array to extend Chinese radar or signals intelligence collection over that important sea lane,” the analysis states.

Bottom line from “Dai Xu, president of China’s Institute of Marine Safety and Co-operation” :

On the South China Sea specifically, he (Dai) said “freedom of navigation” advocated by the US is actually a provocation against China and an attack of Chinese sovereignty.

The strategic meeting engagement between the U.S. and China in the South China Sea is well underway.

RELATED: A column from January 2018 on Chinese preparations for winning “informationized local wars.” Also Chapter 3 of my latest book, Cocktails from Hell.

LAV IN A FJORD: A USMC Light Armored Vehicle lands in a Norwegian fjord. (Yes, the headline’s correct.)

FULLY LOADED: USS Truman underway with a deck packed with aircraft.

DEFINITELY STAY TUNED: Turkey says it will definitely take over fight against ISIS when U.S. leaves. Understand I regard Erdogan as a bad actor. However, he’s a bad actor who understands where his best interests really lie. They do not lie with Moscow, Tehran and Beijing. That said, Syria will test this opinion. One other point: I’m still not sure what constitutes U.S. withdrawal from Syria. Potent U.S. and French forces are positioned in Iraq — within tactically reasonable strike distance.

TANK PLATOON ON A PATROL: A USMC Abrams tank platoon participates in a simulated security patrol during Exercise Trident Juncture 18 in Storas, Norway Oct. 27, 2018.