FIRING AWAY: A Opposing Force (OPFOR) soldier opens up on soldiers from the 2nd Infantry Brigade Combat Team, 25th Infantry Division, and the Royal Thai Army (RTA). The action took place during Exercise Lightning Forge 2020 held at the Kahuku Training Area, Hawaii. Photo taken July 15.

WHEN BASEBALL KNEW BETTER: Powerline’s John Hinderaker shares a letter from former Minnesota Twins’ owner Clark Griffith.

TRIDENT STORM: U.S. Marine and Navy helicopters participate in Exercise Trident Storm. Photo taken July 30, 2020, off San Clemente Island, Calif.

FROM DESERT SHIELD TO DESERT STORM: Assessing Desert Shield’s Power Cocktail 30 Years On. On August 2, 1990 Saddam invaded Kuwait. Desert Shield officially began August 9, but the military, diplomatic and economic response began immediately.

…Saddam wanted more than money; he sought global glory. A speech he delivered in Amman, Jordan, in February 1990 sketched his plan. After discussing the “Palestinian cause,” Western Europe’s decline and the Cold War, “suddenly, the situation,” Saddam said, “changed in a dramatic way.” The Cold War ended. America was “fatigued” and would fade, but “throughout the next five years,” the U.S. would be unrestricted. He implied that defeating the U.S. entailed scraping the scar of Vietnam and threatening massive U.S. casualties. “Fatigue” and domestic self-recrimination would stall U.S. power. A crucial line stands out: “The big,” Saddam said, “does not become big, nor does the great earn such a description unless he is in the arena of comparison or fighting with someone else on a different level.” (Translation: If a minor leaguer wants to move up, he takes on the majors.)

Read the whole thing — my latest Creators Syndicate column.

TWO HAWGS FLARING IN CENTCOM: Two A-10 Thunderbolt IIs release countermeasure flares somewhere in the Central Command area of responsibility.

CHINA’S LITTLE SPACE FAILURE WITH LARGE IMPLICATIONS:

On July 10, 2020 China’s new KZ (Kuaizhou)-11 solid-fuel satellite launcher failed about a minute after its first commercial launch when the third stage motor failed to ignite. This KZ-11 was carrying two satellites, which were lost. This first launch was supposed to have been in 2018 but there were technical delays. A second KZ-11 launch was already scheduled for late in 2020 and it is not yet known if that will be delayed. The 78-ton KZ-11 is a larger commercial version of the military LM (Long March) 11.

It’s a setback for China. China intends to become the major player in the commercial satellite launch business, but the StrategyPage update points out it’s done that with liquid fuel rockets. Now China is trying to move to solid fuel birds — but problems are occurring.

WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU THREATEN AND BULLY EVERYONE, BUT ESPECIALLY YOUR SMART AND RICH NEIGHBORS WHO AIN’T GONNA TAKE IT:

China now has to deal with over 300 F-35’s operating near its northern borders. In the 1990s Chinese support for an aggressive and unpredictable North Korea prompted South Korea to become a major developer, manufacturer and exporter of modern weapons. Now Japan, with a larger population and industrial base than South Korea has followed South Korean in an arms race with China.

It’s the latest StrategyPage Procurement update. Japan is primarily buying the F-35A but has decided to add some F-35Bs (the vertical takeoff and landing variant) to its air fleet. The update includes a look at the implications of that decision.

UPDATE: A very related post – Taiwan orders $620 million worth of missiles and upgrades for its seven Patriot PAC-3 missile batteries.

WOE UNLIMITED: A look at politics, death and what passes for life in ayatollah Iran.

KING STALLION TACTICAL REFUELING: Marines on the ground deploy a tactical aviation ground refueling system (TAGRS) to support a CH-53K King Stallion. The Pentagon caption is a bit misleading. The King Stallion is the Pentagon’s most powerful helicopter — most powerful and heaviest.

TURKEY’S SULTAN IS AT IT AGAIN: Erdogan’s Hagia Sophia Distraction Masks His Mounting Problems.

In a desperate attempt to remain in power, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has dealt the Turkish republic’s democratic structure a symbolic, historical insult so divisive it has the potential for serious, systemic political damage.

In so doing, the man derisively nicknamed Sultan Recep once again exposed his intense jealousy for Kemal Ataturk, the soldier-statesman and political genius who founded the modern Turkish state.

It’s my latest Creators Syndicate column.

ERASING HISTORY: From China to Portland to Minneapolis there are a lot of folks trying to erase history. It’s the latest StrategyTalk podcast. The link goes to YouTube. If you prefer, go here for the MP3 download.

AN INTERNET BLOCKADE VERSUS A DRUG-FUELED INSURGENCY: A StrategyPage Information Warfare update discusses Burma’s (Myanmar) extended internet blockade on the Arakan Army’s insurgency. The Arakan Army insurgency has a tribal veneer, but the update quickly points out the outfit has a gangster reputation. It relies on cell phones for combat and for smuggling drugs, usually into Bangladesh. The Burmese government’s blockade is an inexpensive communications and information warfare operation. The blockade began in June 2019 and it appears to have had some positive effects from the government’s perspective. It may be lifted in early August. The update also surveys Burma’s various complex insurgencies and its complex drug business. Burma is still in the opium business, producing over 700 tons in 2015.

VIPER ON APPROACH: A USMC AH-1Z Viper approaches the amphibious landing dock USS Somerset while training in the eastern Pacific. Good photo of the attack helicopter’s weapon systems. This Warplanes update from 2017 has background on the AH-1Z helicopter, which is a remanufactured and upgraded AH-1T/W attack helicopter. The AH-1T/W was an upgrade of the Vietnam era AH-1 Cobra. This photo shows two Vipers maneuvering on a target during training at Twentynine Palms, California.

THE VIDEO GAMER SPECIAL– FOR RUSSIA WITH SPITE: OK, make that “with SPIKE.” Israel and Poland have struck a joint production deal to mount Israeli Spike NLOS (Non-Line Of Sight) long-range missiles on Polish “tank-destroyer” vehicles. The missile has a range of 25-32 kilometers. When linked to forward observers and 21st century sensors, Polish NLOS vehicles “could launch surprise mass attacks on distant enemy armor.”

Spike NLOS does not rely on a laser designator or GPS to get to its target. Instead the missile has an encrypted data-link with the launching vehicle that puts the missile close enough to the targets for the onboard target detection and recognition system to identify tanks and attack.

Massed Russian tanks beware: A long-range, “distributed” (dispersed), mobile, armor protected and ground-based anti-tank platform. The article also discusses other weapons similar to Spike NLOS and what the capabilities “smart” missiles give defending forces. For the record, in 2017 the Philippines bought the air-launched version of Spike NLOS to “use…off their west coast, to help block Chinese efforts to take possession of Filipino islands and reefs.”

TWO BONES OVER GUAM: Two B-1B Lancers conduct a flyover before landing at Andersen AFB, Guam. Photo taken July 17, 2020.

ATTORNEY GENERAL BILL BARR TESTIFIES: Barr testifies before the House Judiciary Committee this morning. Powerline’s Scott Johnson has already posted his opening remarks (six pages). Barr’s remarks are a good read and they bring heat. Scott has highlighted Barr’s analysis of the on-going riots

U.S. NAVY MINE NEUTRALIZATION VEHICLE: Sailors aboard the mine countermeasures ship USS Pioneer lower a mine neutralization vehicle into the water during a mine warfare exercise off the Japanese coast. The remote-controlled MNV wears shark’s teeth war paint. Here’s a photo from 2011 of a multinational mine warfare exercise in the Arabian Gulf. The ships in the photo are mine countermeasures ships (yes, minesweepers). This StrategyPage Surface Forces update from March 2020 discusses current trends in naval mine and counter-mine warfare. Note it says western navies prefer to use unmanned underwater vessels (UUVs) to destroy bottom mines. The article also includes a detailed historical discussion of 20th century mine warfare.

TESTED SPACE PARTS: NASA’s Super Guppy waits in Mansfield, Ohio. The special transport is carrying parts for the Orion spacecraft project that underwent engineering tests at the Glenn Research Center in Sandusky, Ohio. Here’s a full frontal photo of the Super Guppy that shows the size of the cargo bulb. The Orion has been under development for quite some time and has stirred controversy. This StrategyPage Space update from Fall 2019 discusses the development of American manned spacecraft alternatives to the Russian Soyuz, the United Launch Alliance and SpaceX’s commercial efforts. Since that article was published the Starliner has suffered major test failures and NASA has concerns about quality control. Here’s an Orion capsule test from 2018.

NILE RIVER WATER WAR: Ethiopia and Egypt square off over water rights.

Human survival, individual and societal, requires water. Just ask Egyptians. At least 7,000 years of life on the Nile has proven the adage “Egypt is the Nile” to be true. From Aswan north to Alexandria, the green band bordering the great river is home to 90% of Egypt’s population.

Twenty-first-century Egypt still confronts pharaoh-era East African geographic and climactic facts. Egypt gets 80% to 90% of its annual water needs from the Nile.

Egypt and Ethiopia have been confronting each other for well over a decade, as Ethiopia built the GERD, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. The GERD now dams “the Blue Nile River near the Sudan border. This month, Ethiopia began filling the dam’s reservoir, which could ultimately hold 75 billion cubic meters of water.”

The column discusses the water conflict and a framework for resolving it. (bumped)

PAKISTANI HONEY TRAPS FOR INDIAN ARMY SOLDIERS: A sordid tale of a “classic espionage technique that has adapted to the Internet Age.”

Sample:

The Pakistanis have been very creative in their use of honey-traps. This was demonstrated in early 2018 when a female Pakistani agent called an Indian army staff officer serving in the headquarters of a unit stationed in northern India. The Pakistan spy said she was from the Army Wives Welfare Association but was informed that the officer she wanted was away from the office. Her call was transferred to a 25-year-old corporal. The Pakistani agent found the corporal suitable for entrapment and during their brief phone call persuaded him to contact her via her Internet accounts on WhatsApp and Instagram to continue their conversation. That was how the Pakistani agent “developed” the corporal as a provider of information on Indian army troop movements.

Indian military intelligence was, by then, well aware of how these Pakistani “honey traps” worked and knew what signs to look for. Soon the Indian counterintelligence operatives were monitoring the corporals’ activities and did so for over five months before making an arrest. None of the information the corporal passed on was of high value so Indian intelligence was apparently hoping to gather more information on this female Pakistani agent and what kinds of tradecraft (techniques) the Pakistanis were currently using.

Yes, virtual sex and violence.

A VOLCANO WITH AN INSTANT MINEFIELD ON THE SIDE: A 25th Infantry Division UH-60 Black Hawk conducts Volcano minefield system training at Makua Range, Hawaii. The dispenser system gives soldiers a scatterable mine capability that can be mounted on a helicopter or land vehicle. The system can rapidly lay up to 960 anti-tank (AT) mines. Anti-personnel mines can be mixed with the AT mines. In the photo the M139 Volcano Mine Dispenser is mounted on the sides of the aircraft. The helicopter is approaching the target area. The Army placed the Volcano in “storage” in 2001 but brought the system back in 2017.

ETHIOPIA AND EGYPT WAGE SLOW WAR OVER NILE RIVER WATER RIGHTS: Whiskey’s for drinking. Water’s for fighting. When it comes to the world’s longest river, there’s a lot of water to fight about.

Human survival, individual and societal, requires water. Just ask Egyptians. At least 7,000 years of life on the Nile has proven the adage “Egypt is the Nile” to be true. From Aswan north to Alexandria, the green band bordering the great river is home to 90% of Egypt’s population.

Twenty-first-century Egypt still confronts pharaoh-era East African geographic and climactic facts. Egypt gets 80% to 90% of its annual water needs from the Nile.

Egypt and Ethiopia have been confronting each other for well over a decade, as Ethiopia built the GERD, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. The GERD now dams “the Blue Nile River near the Sudan border. This month, Ethiopia began filling the dam’s reservoir, which could ultimately hold 75 billion cubic meters of water.”

The column discusses the water conflict and a framework for resolving it.

ROCKETS AWAY: An AH-64 Apache fires rockets downrange during aerial gunnery tables at Grafenwoehr, Germany.

SITTING PRETTY IN THE BALABAC STRAIT: Aircraft assigned to the carrier USS Nimitz wait on the flight deck. Balabac Strait? Glad you asked. The Balabac Strait connects the Sulu Sea to the South China Sea. The strait passes between a Filipino island and several small Malaysian islands just north of Borneo. This column discusses the “strengthened” American policy in the South China Sea U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo announced last week.

AHOY, ALL INSTA-COMMENTERS WHO THINK THE U.S. NAVY COMMAND STRUCTURE AND TRAINING REGIMEN IS LOUSY: The latest StrategyPage Leadership post – China Cripples Naval Officers.

When dealing with Chinese navy or coast guard ships, foreign naval commanders have learned to take into account the dual command structure of Chinese crews. In effect, Chinese warships except for smaller (less than 2,000 tons) ones, have dual commanders and a naval command system that is more premeditated and slower to respond to unexpected conditions.

This comes as a surprise to many Western naval officers. Although the Chinese military has achieved many visible signs of modernizing, like new weapons, equipment, uniforms, tactics and officer training, it is still having problems in several key areas. When it comes to leadership there are problems with the political officers.

More:

There’s another leadership problem China has to deal with, a problem similar to the one that seriously hurt Japan’s effort against the United States during World War II. This is the fact that the Japanese Army then, like the Chinese Army now, is the senior service to the extent that generals can overrule admirals and generally interfere in navy matters that the army generals really know little about. This is already causing China problems and there is no solution in sight. This is particularly true when it comes to joint training. In wartime, this “army runs the show” sort of thing is a serious problem, just read any history that covers the Japanese army and navy relationships during World War II.

A military problem? Sure, but an insight into Communist China’s deep political and social problems. Yes, it mentions the Soviet Union’s problems with political officers in military organizations. StrategyPage Editor Jim Dunnigan wrote the analysis and it’s well worth reading.