WILL CHINA TRIGGER A WAR?: The latest StrategyTalk podcast.

VERY RELATED: Scaring Chinese spies.

ALSO VERY RELATED: A few selected China War scenarios, including China versus China.

DEFINITELY RELATED: A review of the book Chinese Communist Espionage.

HAWKEYE CHANGES THE OIL SMUGGLING GAME: It’s StrategyPage’s latest Intelligence update.

Iranian efforts to export oil in spite of sanctions have often been successful. That changed in 2020 when HawkEye 360, a new ship tracking service made it much more difficult for ships to conceal their smuggling activities. Since 2015 a growing array of sensors and software to track ships at sea, especially ships that don’t want to be tracked, have been developed. One of these new sensors appeared in 2019 when HawkEye 360 launched its own array of radar tracking satellites. This enables tracking ships via the signals their navigation radars produce. These can be spotted by a satellite. Other electronic signals can also be tracked, like those used by large ships to communicate with the port they are headed for to unload their cargo.

The update goes into great detail.

VIPER SUNSET: A USMC AH-1Z Viper attack helicopter on a training exercise with a sunset at sea in the background. Photo taken July 30 near San Clemente Island, Calif.

CHINA WAR SCENARIOS: Versus the U.S., Versus India, China Versus China, and a little more.

Let’s hope the scenarios remain fiction — except China Versus China (the next Chinese revolution).

In July, senior government officials in Taiwan and the U.S. warned that communist China was aggressively threatening Taiwan’s independence. U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper contended Beijing had taken its intimidation “to a new level.”…”The official warnings spurred several recent articles that examine a U.S-China war sparked by a Beijing invasion of Taiwan. Some are quite dire…”

It’s my latest Creators Syndicate column.

MARINE DOWN-UNDER LAUNCHING A PUMA: Hey, the title may be weird but it’s accurate. A U.S. Marine launches an RQ-20B Puma small unmanned aircraft system at Mount Bundey Training Area, Australia. Photo taken Aug. 18.

THE NEXT BIG ONE?: China War Scenarios: Versus the U.S., Versus India, China Versus China. Some scenarios you hope are fiction — except perhaps China Versus China.

In July, senior government officials in Taiwan and the U.S. warned that communist China was aggressively threatening Taiwan’s independence. U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper contended Beijing had taken its intimidation “to a new level.”…”The official warnings spurred several recent articles that examine a U.S-China war sparked by a Beijing invasion of Taiwan. Some are quite dire…”

It’s my latest Creators Syndicate column.

LIGHTNING PERFORMANCE PREP: An F-35 F-35 Lightning II flies during practice prior to the 2020 Ocean City Air Show at Ocean City, Md. Photo taken Aug. 14, 2020.

CHINA WAR SCENARIOS: ’nuff said.

SPACE JUNK ANALYTICS:

Over the last few years, a solution has evolved for the growing problem with space debris and the number of satellites damaged or destroyed by tiny bits of orbiting space junk. While there has never been complete cooperation between the nations putting the most satellites into orbit, there has been growing willingness to share some data about space debris.

There are a growing number of satellites in orbit and most of them are commercial, not military. While the military sats seek to conceal their location, and often move around a lot to do that, the more numerous commercial communications, scientific and observation satellites don’t. The more numerous clouds of space debris have become a growing threat, especially to satellites that cannot move. The solution was the development of better analytic and graphic tools that enable commercial satellite operators predict where the growing number of debris swarms are and how that data changes over time.

It’s the latest StrategyPage Space update. The update includes a discussion of the Space Fence Surveillance System Radar on Kwajalein Atoll.

PAVE HAWK STARTS TO REV ITS ROTORS: A USAF HH-60G Pave Hawk at Mountain Home Air Force Base, Idaho, conducts a pre-flight inspection prior to participating in a combat rescue exercise. Photo taken Aug. 17, 2020.

TRACING THE DOP, THE DISTINCT OPERATING PATTERN, IN ORDER TO FIND THE FIST:

Hackers, telegraph operators and UAV users all have one important thing in common; a DOP (Distinct Operating Pattern). The latest DOP to be discovered and applied in a practical way uses an app that tracks the movement of a UAV and within a short period (way before the quadcopter battery runs low and forces it to land) deduces the location of the operator. The AI (artificial intelligence) drone-tracking algorithm needs a 3-D map of the area where UAVs will be tracked. The AI is a GRU (Gated-Recurrent Unit) neural network that studies movements in space and time and is able to track the movements of the quadcopter back to its origin (launch point) with over 80 percent accuracy. That accuracy improves the more the algorithm is used, and modifies itself…

Historical sketch:

The technique was discovered in the mid-1800s by accident. In the early days of the telegraph experienced operators found that they could tell who was on the other end of a telegraph line by the rhythm of how the telegraph key was hit. This was called the operators “fist.” When computers came along it was possible to automate that particular intelligence gathering task. For example, each user has a distinct typing pattern and rhythm that produces an identifiable “fist.”

All is not lost. “It is possible to deceive all these DOP methods. Hackers can automate phony “fists” and similar deceptions.” It’s StrategyPage’s latest Murphy’s Law update, and well worth the read.

ELECTRIC VERTICAL TAKEOFF AND LANDING: Your acronym for the day, eVTOL. The Hexa eVTOL maneuvers over Camp Mabry, Texas. Camp Mabry is in the city of Austin, Texas. Photo taken Aug. 20, 2020. Here’s an oldie VTOL from 1964, the XC-142A.

SPECIAL VEHICLES GO MAINSTREAM: The latest StrategyPage Special Operations update.

LCAC HITS THE BEACH: These beasts are loud. A Landing Craft, Air Cushion from the USS San Diego hits the beach at Camp Pendleton during an amphibious transport training exercise. Photo taken August 7. Yes, the Pentagon caption says Land Craft. But the photo’s good.

PANDEMIC MISSILE LOADING IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA: Masked sailors aboard the amphibious assault ship USS America load rockets for a live-fire exercise.

STATE AND COMMERCE DECLARE WAR ON CHINA’S MALWARE AND MALGEAR:

This past week, the U.S. State Department and U.S. Department of Commerce launched new diplomatic, economic and legal initiatives designed to counter communist China’s global malware and malgear offensive.

Right — a malgear offensive.

Everyone with a smartphone understands malware, the cybersecurity portmanteau for “malicious software.” Invading malware code can sabotage, spy upon, seize control of or even destroy a digital information device.

Malgear is my portmanteau for malicious digital equipment, malicious gear (hardware) that has the built-in ability to surveil, sabotage and destroy when its manufacturer gives the command.

Think Huawei, think malgear.

My latest Creators Syndicate column.

WARTHOG DEMONSTRATION: An A-10 Thunderbolt II assigned to the USAF A-10 Demonstration Team prepares to get in formation for a heritage flight. Photo taken July 22, 2020 at F.E. Warren Air Force Base, Wyoming.

STRATEGYPAGE SPECIAL: An interview with wargame designer Mark Herman.

U.S. “SEIZES” IRANIAN TANKERS: Why the italics? It’s a sanctions seizure, not a sailor boarding party.

…U.S. officials threatened ship owners, insurers and captains with sanction to force them to hand over their cargo, which now becomes U.S. property, the official said.

Prosecutors alleged the four ships were transporting to Venezuela 1.1 million barrels of gasoline. But the tankers never arrived at the South American country and then went missing. Two of the ships later reappeared near Cape Verde, a second U.S. official said.

Both officials agreed to discuss the sensitive diplomatic and judicial offensive only if granted anonymity.

More:

One of the companies involved in the shipment to Venezuela, the Avantgarde Group, was previously linked to the Revolutionary Guard and attempts to evade U.S. sanctions, according to prosecutors.

Venezuela calls it psychological warfare. Yes, and lawfare, diplomatic, economic and information warfare elements as well. Think of it as an American power cocktail.

RED FLAG TORNADO: A Luftwaffe Tornado strike fighter takes off from Nellis Air Force Base, Nevada, prior to the start of Red Flag 20-2. Photo taken March 5, 2020. Yes, it is a German jet that’s in flying condition. In 2018 the Tornado was “being retired” very slowly, but still had a better ready rate than the more modern Typhoons.

From that 2018 update:

When the Americans press Germany to meet its NATO obligations there are promises but no performance. Meanwhile, the United States spends nearly four percent of GDP on defense, accounts for 70 percent defense spending in NATO and is now telling the Germans that they can no longer automatically expect the Americans to bail them out when Germany comes up short in meeting its NATO obligations. This got some attention in Germany, but not a lot.

Burden sharing in still-free Europe? Poland and the U.S. take defense seriously.

COLLEGE DEATH SPIRAL, CHAPTER TWO: An economic assessment by Steven Hayward at Powerline. Steven examines a column by Megan McArdle and two articles in The Economist. “Where’s the bad news here?” he asks. Read the whole thing.

POLAND TELLS THE KREMLIN AND NATO IT’S PREPARED TO FIGHT:

Let’s agree that the 21st-century NATO vs. Russia cold war is a small-case version of the 20th-century Cold War. But Russia’s invasion and annexation of Crimea and invasion of eastern Ukraine aren’t small-case imperialism. Russian hybrid war — political meddling, information warfare, narrative warfare, economic threats, covert attacks and assassination — is a powerful and disruptive cocktail that savages Ukraine and threatens still-free Europe. The war in Ukraine’s east, the Donbass, continues, receiving scant major media coverage.

The front’s moved east, and strategically, Poland is where West Germany was circa 1960.

It’s my latest Creators Syndicate column.

DRAGON LADY PREPARES TO TAKEOFF: A venerable U-2 “Dragon Lady” spy plane advances down the runway at Osan Air Base, Republic of Korea. Photo taken August 12, 2020.

IRAN’S ISRAELI PROBLEMS: Iran’s ayatollah dictatorship has a host of problems, including an angry population and a hellhole economy. The regime blames its most explosive problems, literally and figuratively, on the Israelis. Well, when it comes to explosions involving nuclear development and support facilities, the robes could have a point. It’s the latest StrategyTalk. Link goes to youtube. MP3 download version is here. If you like it, please subscribe.

POLAND TELLS THE KREMLIN –AND NATO– IT’S PREPARED TO FIGHT:

In late July, the Trump administration announced that the U.S. Army’s V Corps headquarters would be reactivated and permanently stationed in Poland. The Kremlin, its Twitter bots and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s propaganda twits objected. Chinese Communist Party flacks likely hissed (if so, I missed it).

Reactions throughout still-free Europe were either quiet nods of agreement or reserved acceptance. These reactions reflect strategic reality. (1): Putin’s nuclear-armed Russia is an expansionist threat that requires military deterrence. (2): Russia has demonstrated its military and political threat overtly and covertly from the Scandinavian arctic south through the Baltic States to the Black Sea and Mediterranean Sea.

Check the map — Poland is the lynchpin of NATO’s current eastern flank.

It’s my latest Creators Syndicate column.

FROM 2015, A VERY RELATED COLUMN: Confessions of a NATO Trip Wire: Why Poles and Balts Want U.S. Trip Wire Forces.