LARRY O’CONNOR: Why I’m Still Not Buying the Blue Tsunami.

When I look at that map, I see a path to a Democrat majority. I’m considerably less persuaded by the path to a landslide.

The Senate requires its own analysis. Some of the Democratic breakthroughs being forecast would require substantial shifts in states with established Republican voting patterns.

I want convincing evidence of what has changed in those states. Who is switching sides? Which voters are staying home? What turnout assumptions produce the projected result? The larger the departure from recent voting history, the more closely those questions deserve examination.

Then there are the polls.

In three consecutive presidential elections, polling underestimated Republican support relative to Democratic support. Polls performed considerably better in the 2018 and 2022 midterms. That belongs in the discussion, and I take it seriously.

Nobody knows. But you can add a little certainty just by voting.

Related item from Andrew Stiles: Brace for Impact. “A Democratic rout would mean the polls were basically right. That would be genuinely shocking. If they’re wrong, and Republicans do better than expected—retaining control of the Senate while narrowly losing the House, for instance—Democrats will struggle to maintain their composure. They might start to question the sanctity of our democracy. If they fail to capture either chamber, the meltdown will be extraordinary.”

It would also be well-financed and planned well in advance.