VERONIQUE DE RUGY: ‘When Will Markets React to Debt?’ Is the Wrong Question.

Federal debt held by the public now equals the size of the annual economy — and is growing. Yet investors continue buying Treasury securities. No government bond sale has really failed, no one has suddenly refused to finance Washington’s spending, and no unmistakable moment has forced Congress to change course.

That leads some people I cross paths with in academic life to conclude that despite decades of dire warnings, we’ve managed to go from a 35% debt-to-GDP ratio in 2007 to 100% today with no devastating consequences. Their implication is that we can keep going right up to 175% in 2056, which is the trajectory if Congress fails to reform Social Security and Medicare and if interest rates rise only modestly.

The idea that all this debt won’t bring a reckoning may sound tempting, but it’s questionable at best.

And that 2056 date assumes no black swan events between now and then, which on a 20-year timeline, seems (ahem) somewhat optimistic.