SURE WOULD BE NICE IF WE HAD THE SPARE REFINING CAPACITY TO HANDLE THESE LITTLE COMPLICATIONS: Persian Gulf crude oil flows have largely recovered. For diesel and gasoline, it’s more complicated.

Exports of crude oil have begun to normalize in the Persian Gulf, bringing some relief to global buyers. But in the refined market for products such as diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel, analysts say the picture looks tighter, more expensive, and slower to recover.

While crude oil exports from the Persian Gulf region have returned to roughly 98% of their pre-war levels, product exports — of diesel, gasoline, and other derivatives — have recovered only to roughly 3 million barrels per day, or about 58% of their pre-war levels. Goldman Sachs analysts led by Daan Struyven peg that figure lower, at roughly 50% of their 2025 average.

“The crude market has largely normalized even as refined product supplies remain constrained,” JPMorgan analysts led by Natasha Kaneva wrote to clients.

Hell, it would be nice if we just had enough refining capacity.