TWENTY MINUTES INTO THE FUTURE: What a Limited Russian Incursion Into Estonia Might Look Like: A Narva Scenario.

Too much of the European defense discourse today focuses on options that would amount to escalation, particularly long-range strike, rather than on rapidly developing the kinds of symmetrical capabilities that Ukrainian forces have, although there are European efforts along those lines, to be sure.  NATO member states must internalize the reality that, unattractive as escalation scenarios are to Putin, they are likely to be much more challenging for NATO states themselves from a political perspective.  Russian cognitive warfare efforts will go all out to dissuade one or more states from voting to support long-range strikes into or air campaigns against Russian territory in such a scenario, and NATO should not rely on winning those fights in every member capital.  The ability to defend against low-level scenarios such as those described above with tactical capabilities whose use does not require either the mobilization or the permission of the entire alliance is an essential component of deterrence as well as of defeat mechanisms.

But NATO must also internalize the challenges of moving such tactical capabilities to forward positions after the Russians have initiated attacks at a moment of their choosing.  Russian drone units are highly effective at interdicting ground lines of communication unless their own operators can be regularly and rapidly located and eliminated.  Front line states must not only rapidly field their own drone and counter-drone capabilities, but must also deploy them to their borders even in the face of the inevitable Russian accusations of NATO aggression and threat.

NATO must deter and, if necessary, defeat a limited Russian incursion such as this one at both the political and the military levels.  If military conditions are properly set and necessary preparations are made in advance, then success in the political arena becomes much more likely.  Clear statements that NATO will honor its defense commitments even against such limited attacks are needed, but so are clear preparations to do so at levels that do not impose massive political costs and risks on the alliance.

Earlier: Uh-Oh: BBC features white male soldier in warning about impending war.