DON’T GET COCKY: Iran Is Facing Its Soviet Moment and Possibly Its End.

On September 13, 1985, Saudi oil minister Ahmed Zaki Yamani announced that his country would stop propping up the price of crude. Prices collapsed, and the Soviet Union lost roughly $20 billion a year in hard currency—“money without which the country simply could not survive,” in the estimate of Yegor Gaidar, later Russia’s acting prime minister. Gaidar dated the collapse of the Soviet Union to that announcement.

Tehran is now in a weaker position than Moscow was in that autumn. The Islamic Republic is exporting almost no oil, its currency has lost nearly a third of its value since March, and it is rationing water and electricity to its own capital.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a sweeping new sanctions campaign last week, Operation Economic Outcast, aimed at what remains of the regime’s revenue, with the stated objective of severing “every economic lifeline that sustains this tyrannical regime until Tehran stands alone.”

I guess we’ll see how much lifeline Beijing and Moscow can get to Tehran under the new sanctions.