MISSED IT BY THAT MUCH:
The claim that 400K trans-identified people have fled their states is based on an extrapolation from a non-representative poll that found a total of ten (10) people had fled a state https://t.co/bNgxOeZcqz
— Wesley Yang (@wesyang) August 29, 2026
Tweet concludes, “As @kittypurrzog pointed out on @TheBARPod, the 400K figure was, with some faulty math, extrapolated by Erin Reed based on the NORC survey, which included just 10 trans people who said they’d fled a state. The survey did not provide a representative sample either. So this figure has been all but plucked out of the air and was not actually reached by NORC themselves. It is a figment of Erin Reed’s work with a calculator. This is not to say that trans people are not fleeing red states. But it is extremely unlikely that 400,000 of them have.”