WINNING: Red states winning the prosperity race.

The new study focuses on the more recent years 2020-2024, using modern statistical techniques to show that even after other factors impacting economic change—like climate, the proportion of the population working in manufacturing or producing oil, or the degree of urbanization—are taken into account, Republican-dominated states grew sharply faster than Democratic oriented ones. Controlling for several potential competing explanatory factors, solidly Red states typically had over 25 percent more growth in personal income in the first part of this decade than their Blue counterparts.

Why? Republicans tend to have greater faith in markets to allocate resources and distribute income and wealth and are less inclined to tax the public heavily to fund massive social services, which research shows weaken work effort and business investment—key components in economic growth. For example, the highest income earners in heavily Blue New York City pay over 14 percent in state and local income taxes on some of their income, compared with zero in a more Red city like Miami or Dallas. All eight states with zero state income tax are Red or, in one case, New Hampshire, a swing state that has a history of electing both Democratic and Republican political leaders.

But here’s the kicker: “Our statistical analysis confirms that one of the biggest sources of income growth in the Red states has come from the in-migration of generally highly productive people fleeing high-tax Blue States.”