THE MANDALORIAN AND GROGU TRACKING FOR LOWEST STAR WARS BOX OFFICE OPENING EVER:
The Mandalorian and Grogu box office projections are continuing to trend in the wrong direction, with new estimates suggesting the film could deliver the lowest opening weekend in the history of the Star Wars franchise.
According to the latest tracking data, the film is currently eyeing an $80 million-plus four-day Memorial Day debut. While that might sound respectable on paper, it would fall well below previous Star Wars theatrical releases—and even trail 2018’s Solo: A Star Wars Story, which opened to $103 million over the same holiday frame.
Solo holds the distinction of being the first Star Wars movie to actually lose money at the box office (but seemingly not the last).
For Star Wars, a franchise that once dominated the global box office, that’s a stunning shift.
Far more so than Spinal Tap, Kathleen Kennedy spent the last ten years working extremely hard to make Star Wars’ appeal increasingly selective:
Turns out when you attack fans, destroy legacy characters, prop up the message, blacklist actors for political differences, soften content till it’s unrecognizable, ignore widely accepted lore, hate your primary customers, write slop etc etc – people don’t want to support you 🤷🏻♂️ https://t.co/prXWbcaahe
— Xwing (@XwingsHangar) April 30, 2026