2026 PREVIEW (SORT OF): Beware Of Central Economic Forecasts For 2026.

This is a central scenario that includes a lot of “dispersion,” and not just domestically. Internationally, the U.S. significantly outperforms other major economies. Hampered by structural rigidities, the eurozone and the United Kingdom remain trapped in a low-growth, low-investment equilibrium. With China’s efforts to upgrade its growth model progressing slowly, the U.S. will serve by far as the global economy’s primary engine—a concentration that creates its own set of risks.

As for the “fat tail” scenarios, their probabilities are roughly equal, offering reasons for both hope and anxiety. On the right-hand side, one finds a tantalizing vision of an economy that doesn’t merely grow but accelerates, while also expanding future capacity. In this scenario, faster-than-anticipated AI adoption, combined with robotics, is translated into tangible, economy-wide productivity gains, enabling the U.S. to pull further ahead of other major economies.

If this “productivity promise” materializes rapidly enough, the U.S. could experience a non-inflationary boom. Because the supply side expands rapidly enough to meet rising demand, inflation remains in check. This is a Goldilocks scenario on steroids: a technology-driven expansion that expands corporate margins and increases tax revenues, potentially alleviating fiscal pressures and enabling the Fed to cut rates more aggressively.

But equally probable is the downside scenario: not a standard recession born of exhausted demand, but a surge in volatility, stemming from financial instability, policy error, election-year politics, and geoeconomic developments.

Translation: Predictions are hard, especially about the future.