ICYMI, IT’S MY THURSDAY ESSAY FOR VIP SUBSCRIBERS: Kinetic Sanctions, Shadow Fleets, and the Long, Slow Bleeding of Russia.

The war on Russian oil just went global, and the question now might not be whether President Donald Trump’s new sanctions will work, but whether they’ll work fast enough to matter.

Since we first discussed Ukraine’s war on Russian energy production back in August with what some call “kinetic sanctions” on refineries, depots, and export facilities, Trump launched a new and serious round of traditional sanctions on Russia’s ability to sell crude oil and refined products.

How’s it going? As your neighbors with marital troubles say on Facebook, “It’s complicated.”

Much more at the link.