OUCH: The geo-economics of Russia’s bad harvest.

Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Western sanctions have sought to isolate the Russian economy. These have largely exempted agricultural exports to protect global food security, particularly in developing countries. For the Kremlin, this omission has become a secure stream of foreign earnings and influence that have helped stabilise the economy and support the war effort. But nature, indifferent to political constraints, may now be doing what Western policymakers have declined to do.

The 2025 harvest is shaping up to be Russia’s worst in years. July saw the country’s lowest grain exports for that month since 2008. This is a result of intensifying climate volatility. Unseasonable spring frosts damaged over 240,000 hectares of crops, with 100,000 hectares lost outright. These were followed by record summer heat, with temperatures above 40°C in key southern regions. Drought conditions this summer have been devastating, with nearly 500,000 hectares destroyed. The authorities in Rostov oblast, a major grain-producing region, declared a state of emergency. Fields once golden with wheat were left parched and cracked. Wheat production forecasts were revised downward from 90 million tonnes to 82m–84m tonnes. Total grain output, which peaked at 158m tonnes in 2022, is now expected to fall to around 130m tonnes.

This comes as pressure mounts on Russia’s once primary source of foreign earnings: hydrocarbon exports. In July, the European Union and the United Kingdom lowered their price cap on Russian crude from US$60 to US$47 per barrel and escalated sanctions on Russia’s shadow fleet of oil tankers. US President Donald Trump’s second administration has imposed tariffs on some buyers of Russian oil – most notably India. Crude oil and refined petroleum products now account for less than half of Russia’s export revenues, placing growing importance on alternative sources, including agricultural exports.

Maybe this would be a good time to take up Trump’s offer to broker a decent ceasefire.