HE STILL THINKS WAR, WAR IS BETTER THAN JAW, JAW: Trump Offered Putin An ‘Excellent’ Ukraine War Deal: Why Did He Say No?

“Putin’s Rejection of Trump’s Generous Deal Tells Us What He Really Wants.”The crafty Putin play would have been to take the deal now, re-arm and re-fit, and then destabilize Ukraine again later. Indeed, this was a big concern for Ukraine’s backers. It was a bad deal for Ukraine, but Kyiv is desperate to placate Trump and achieve at least a ceasefire. Putin had the great opportunity to solidify his war gains and slip out from under international opprobrium.

That Putin rejected such generous terms tells us a lot—namely, that he truly seeks the conquest of most, if not all, of Ukraine. The Russian army is likely not capable of that, but Putin simply does not care. As former Vice President Mike Pence says, Putin’s relentless intractability—his refusal to take even Trump’s balance-positive deal—tells us that “he wants Ukraine, not peace.”

In this way, Trump’s extraordinary pro-Putin posturing has served a useful analytic purpose: Putin was more likely to get a good deal from Trump than any other Western leader, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. That Putin still rejected the most pro-Russian deal available makes unambiguously clear that he wants the war and that the only ‘peace’ he will accept is a Ukrainian surrender. Even Vice President J.D. Vance, a relentless critic of Zelenskyy, seems to grasp this now.

There is extensive literature in political science on war termination. Unless one side is completely obliterated on the battlefield, most conflicts end when both sides prefer peace over continuing the conflict. They become amenable to ending hostilities when the perception of future battlefield success becomes dim and the costs of continuing to fight exceed the costs of peace. In William Zartman’s words, they reach a ‘mutually hurting stalemate.

Ukraine has almost certainly reached this point of flexibility. It has signaled a willingness to engage in Trump’s various deals despite the poor terms for Kyiv. Ukraine’s big chance to roll back Russian gains was in the much-hyped offensive of 2023. Since that effort failed, the war has mostly stalemated. A deal where Ukraine loses some territory but mainly persists as a free and independent state is not a bad outcome at this late date.

But less than Putin is willing to give, even minus Western security guarantees for Kyiv.