20 MINUTES INTO THE FUTURE: Joseph Campbell: Surprises, outliers, oddities: What to anticipate in the campaign’s closing days.

• Speculation about an October or November surprise, which is an unanticipated development that bursts across the political landscape with potentially shattering effect. Bush’s drunk-driving case, made public by a television reporter in Maine five days before election, certainly was such a surprise. Bush adviser Karl Rove figured the disclosure kept Bush from carrying states that would have ensured him clear popular vote and Electoral College victories. As it was, the 2000 election pivoted on a prolonged dispute about who carried Florida, a dispute settled in Bush’s favor by the U.S. Supreme Court.

A more recent October surprise was the FBI’s announcement, just 11 days before the 2016 election, that it was reopening an inquiry into the private email server Hillary Clinton used during her time as U.S. secretary of State. Clinton later said the FBI’s renewed investigation was “the determining factor” in her loss to Trump.

• Persistent discussion about the campaign’s great known unknown, which is whether pollsters have effectively modified their methodologies so that surveys this year accurately measure Trump’s support. Polls in 2016 and 2020 underestimated his backing, resulting in back-to-back polling embarrassments.

Some pollsters thought adjustments made after the 2016 election would serve them well in 2020. That wasn’t the case. The collective performance of the polls four years ago was the worst in 40 years. If polls underperform as they did in 2020, Trump could be well-positioned to win reelection.

Polling’s known-unknown won’t be resolved till after the election. Even so, it has been a leading topic of discussion among pollsters and pundits for months.

As for what happens after election Tuesday in November, choose your adventure: Politico Loses It Over Trump Losing But ‘Taking Power Anyway.’

Four years ago, a sitting president — rejected by American voters — attempted to seize a second term anyway, plunging the nation into confusion, conflict and, in its last gasp, violence.

Now, Donald Trump’s political comeback has revived a sense of dread among the officials and institutions who stood in his way last time: Could it happen again?

Dozens of interviews with people deeply familiar or involved with the election process point to a clear consensus: Not only could Trump make a second attempt at overturning an election he loses, he and his allies are already laying the groundwork.

“The threat remains,” said Tim Heaphy, who led the investigation into Trump’s election subversion efforts for the House’s Jan. 6 select committee.

Conversely: Will Kamala commit to certifying a Trump win?

Should Trump win the election, we are sure to see a push from the Democratic Party and its allies in the media not to seat Donald Trump for a second and final term, invoking the insurrection clause of the Fourteenth Amendment. This would cause a constitutional crisis the likes of which the country has never seen and would likely involve the Supreme Court, which the media and Democrats have targeted repeatedly in the past.

If Trump represents the unique threat to democracy the left continues to claim, and if they truly believe he is another Hitler in waiting, a dictator from day one, to what lengths would they go to keep him out of office?

I’d say the two assassination attempts answer that question.