MATTHEW CONTINETTI: No, 2024 Is Not Over Yet.

You would think that after a decade of Trump, official Washington would recognize that it understands politics differently than voters outside D.C. As a Beltway elite, junior class, I belong to the consensus that says Harris did a better job than Trump. That’s the view from the bubble. Reporting on undecided voters tells another story. The Times, Reuters, and the BBC found that voters leaned toward Trump after watching the debate. Why? Because Harris remains a cipher. Her economic message was vague, more “concepts of a plan,” as Trump might say, than a substantive program to restore price stability and raise incomes.

These voters have a point. For my sins, I read the transcript of the debate after watching it live. Harris didn’t answer a single question the moderators asked her, no matter the subject. Are Americans better off than four years ago? Why did the Biden-Harris administration wait three and a half years to address the border crisis? Why exactly has Harris junked her socialist policies from four years ago? Does she support a single restriction on abortion? OK, Trump asked the last one. The ABC anchors didn’t follow up.

Harris has had a remarkable run since President Biden withdrew from the Democratic nomination in late July. But she still hasn’t lapped Trump. She hasn’t overtaken him to such an extent that she’s the clear favorite. One reason is her distance from voters, her refusal to speak freely and concretely on subjects of major concern. Another is her current occupation. The vice president of an unpopular White House can’t escape the burdens of inflation, immigration, and failure and indecision abroad. Unless she makes a clean break from her boss. Harris hasn’t.

Also, 2024 Trump outpolls 2020 and 2016 Trump. And Harris under-polls 2020 Biden and 2016 Clinton.

Just don’t go getting cocky.