THE HARRIS CAMPAIGN’S STALL IN MOMENTUM IS REFLECTED BY THE NON-SCANDALS IT PROMOTES:
This morning, polling analyst Nate Silver wrote eloquently about his own doubts concerning the 2024 race, given that his celebrated model narrowly gives Trump the advantage in November despite Kamala’s current nominal lead in the polls. After all, this is a race without precedent, and things won’t really have settled down until after the debate has been processed. But if you read his explanation — and take note of his reservations — his reasoning for why the race teeters on a knife-edge but structurally favors Trump not only makes sense but also explains why Harris is hiding from cameras and pointing at shiny objects.
For the polling right now — especially given Trump’s twice-demonstrated habit of sharply outperforming his averages — points to a replay of 2016 rather than 2020, and there is still yet time for a further descent by Harris from what now looks like her already dubious peak. The focus on non-stories like the Arlington Cemetery visit, or the “hot mic” kerfuffle last week, are evidence enough that the “vibes” of July and August are dissipating away internally as Harris and Walz awaken to the ugly reality that, for all their blustery optimism and aggressively vague campaign positioning, they’re still not winning Pennsylvania, Georgia, or North Carolina in their internal polling.
But the ace in the hole for Democrats is FJB who joined a rally in Pittsburgh on Monday. By ace, I mean deuce.
Jeff Carlson tweeted, “There’s only one reason they’ve pulled Joe back from his beach retirement. The internal polling for Dems must be a shitstorm.”
Ed Morrissey writes: Harris Scrambling to Defend Blue States.
These may be fundraising trips with campaign events tossed in, but it’s still notable. Harris hasn’t been the candidate long enough for Tier 2 appearances, so to speak; she needs to concentrate on battlegrounds. If the whole campaign is spending this much time on these states now, that may be a signal of desperation.
Don’t get cocky.